colbyjack

Sure, now Zduriencik gets Kotchman http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

Yeah, but they already have an expensive 3B on the roster. So they paid that not for Beltre, but for Beltre's value minus Lowell's value. I disagree that the signing of Beltre has anything to do with the presence of Lowell. It's still a very good signing, picking up a solid baseball player that appears to be somewhat undervalued, similar to Mike Cameron, but roughly a decade younger. As Mass alluded to, the Red Sox look good because they have the money to do so, and a GM savvy enough to wait and make some shrewd pickups. Their team defense should be incredibly good. Although I agree with TLB, the Yankees' roster is still far too good to consider the Yankees anything but the team to beat in the AL East.

Given the way the offseason is going, bargain-bin starters such as these three may not require a multi-year commitment to sign, and may be more inclined to sign a 1-year deal hoping for a more fruitful market next year. A Looper-esque type of contract seems possible with all three of them. I hope there is some substance to this, as I think everyone would feel a lot better about the team's chances with another proven starter aboard.

It seems as though Callis assembled that team by looking at his own overall top prospect list and plucked the players one-by-one until he had enough players to fill out a lineup, rotation and back-end of a bullpen. He does have the tendency to over-hype Red Sox prospects, since he handles their lists and is also a frequent visitor at the Sons of Sam Horn fan-site, as I'm a little surprised that Kelly would be the 5th or 6th best starting pitching prospect in all of baseball. I would probably lean more towards Jeremy Hellickson or Wade Davis for that spot given their stuff and success towards the upper levels of the minors in recent years. I'm mildly surprised he has Ackley rated as a better prospect overall than Smoak, but Smoak did struggle after a AAA promotion, and Ackley was the second overall pick that projects to be an amazing pure hitter (and a good spot for the #2 spot in his batting order).

Since I had some time to put together the results, and since I didn't receive one single entry in the last couple of days, I'm going to close the polling. Thanks again to everyone that participated. The #1 prospect is pretty clear-cut. Feel free to take a guess at the top 5.

Thanks Mass. Like I don't already have enough on my plate in the spring http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. I'm up to 30 contributions, and I would be fine with that. I have compiled the data, and will be putting the story together over the next week. I will keep the polling open in the meantime, hoping to get a few more from people that may have been away for the holidays. Thanks to everyone for your submissions and your comments. I didn't receive any pictures, so that part of the poll will be scrapped (and I thought it might be anyway).

I'm up to 29 submissions, and technically we're past the entry deadline. I'd still like to push towards 50, and this there isn't a rush to get the results finalized, I'll leave this open for a while longer, as I'm guessing some people haven't been around given the holidays and the inactivity on the forums. But please get your list in to me soon if you wish to participate. Thanks.

DHonks, please check your PM inbox. Jameson Taillon from the Woodlands Texas is the top rated prep player in the nation and a player I have second overall in my rankings. I've written before that I think there's a chance he could become the first prep RHP to ever go first overall. I've gushed about him a few times: Taillon vs. Cole Taillon dominates Pan Am games (scroll down)

As I start to prepare myself for the 2010 college baseball season, I came across this story of mine from last February: 2009 College Impact Sleepers I write about so many players it isn't that huge of a coincidence, as I obviously didn't even remember this story in previous conversations when the Brewers took both players. It did remind me just how much I previously (and still do) thought of both Josh Prince and D'Vontrey Richardson. Also, I am keeping up with the changes to the draft pick compensation picks as linked one post above. The Brewers top three picks, at worse, are the 14th, 66th and 98th overall selections. It sure was nice to see the Brewers have some comp picks to play with for a change the past two drafts. Stupid economy...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif.

I have 19 submissions so far. I will add the individual P50s of myself, Toby and Mass once I get to compiling the data, which puts us at 22 at this point in time. I really want to get to 50 total submissions, so we're not to the half-way point yet. While we still have over a week before my deadline, please take the time to get your submissions in. Thanks to everyone who has already done so. It's good reading.

Toby, awesome job as always. The biggest thing that stands out to me is depth. After all of the years of good drafting, the team has solid talent from top to bottom. Even more so than past years, as I doubt we'll see the team overly active trying to address roster spots with minor league free agents as they have in past years. The impact talent may not be there towards the upper levels of the system, but there are a lot of candidates at a lot of positions that could fill in if needed. I can't argue with the placements of Cain and Lucroy because they make a lot of sense where Toby has placed them. And that also is another tribute to the depth that has been built. I don't think it will end up that way, as I have a hard time imagining the Brewers sending Lucroy back to AA (or Cain for that matter, who as noted needs to play CF even if Gomez' presence allows the Brewers to be more patient with his progression), but since Melvin likes to compare him to Terry Steinbach, he's probably already aware that Steinbach also repeated the AA level (at Huntsville) and responded with a huge year. If the teams shake out pretty much as Toby has aligned, Huntsville is going to be the team to watch, from top to bottom, over the first half of the season. I like Brevard's starters, and Wisconsin's staff, both starters and bullpen, should be strong.

Keep in mind, you need to email or PM me your list if you want to be included in the poll. I'm not going to double-check the lists I have received with those posted in this thread.

The iPhone is far from delicate. I keep it in my front pocket at all times, jeans included. I can't speak for hot pants...

I could have kept my post a lot shorter, as TheCrew07 is absolutely correct. There are no rules. I brought up clancy before because his list usually is the most different from everyone else's. I may not agree with a lot of his rankings and reasonings, but his vote counts just as much as everyone else's in this poll.

In ranking prospects, I try to have some balance between a player's actual production, his upside, his age, and what level he has performed at. For instance, I have had Mat Gamel in the top spot, at least before my last ranking, for the last year + since he has hit at every level and continued to get better as he ascended to the upper levels of the system. He has been relatively young for those levels and has a good chance to continue that success in the big leagues with many suggesting that more power is to come out of his sweet left-handed swing. I'm trying not to let his struggles from this past year weigh too heavily in my rankings since he bounced around quite a bit and did have the challenge of trying to adjust to big-league pitching in spot duty, although as noted he did drop out of the top spot for me in my last ranking. Escobar now is my #1 since he continues to get better as he moves up, is loaded with tools, is also young relative to his level and success and now is poised to be the Brewers everyday starter at a position of great importance. Lawrie is third on my list because no one in the system can match his offensive potential, and despite not posting gaudy numbers in 2009, he more than held his own in the Midwest League during his professional debut at 18-19 years old, a league known to suppress offensive numbers. He also was challenged with a brief stay in AA Huntsville to close the year before playing for the Canadian national team. Jonathan Lucroy may not have the tools that Gamel, Escobar and Lawrie possess, but he makes the most of what he does have, and has been putting up good numbers ever since he was added to the system. He of course is now knocking at the door of the big-leagues, a player that Melvin points to as one that could make the jump from AA to MLB. Being a catcher also enhances his value. For pitchers it is a balance of stuff, command and success. I don't look at W-L records, and even ERAs can't be trusted 100% because quite often the peripherals tell more of a story than the ERA does. For instance, Eric Arnett, Jake Odorizzi and Nick Bucci all posted ERAs higher than where we all would like to see them, but we know from following the link reports over the course of the summer that there is plenty to be excited about for all three players. Arnett is someone of a unique case, since he was a high, premium pick. That alone doesn't dictate where a player should be ranked, but we heard that his velocity was fine all summer, and that the Brewers wanted him to lay off of his slider and limit his pitch count to ease up on his arm after a long spring with Indiana. As a tall, RHP with mid-90s stuff and a wipeout slider, his upside is obviously rather high, and he also has the ability to rise up through the system more quickly than some to most. I too don't have Wooten in my top 20. In fact, I think he's somewhere in the 30s for me. I like his chances of contributing at the big-league level better than most, but he maxes out around 90 mph and is always going to be used as a short-inning specialist who doesn't have the stuff to become a closer, much less an 8th inning set-up man. He's a good example of making sure not to fall too much in love with the statistics he has posted during his career. Jeffress is in the low 20s for me at this point in time, but that has everything to do with his suspension(s). Once he gets back on the mound and shows that he has his head on straight while still possessing a fastball that can approach triple digits, he will return to the top 5-10 overall prospects where he should be on pure talent. Players such as D'Vontrey Richardson, Del Howell and Scooter Gennett are three players I like quite a bit, but right now are not in my top 20. They need to show what they can do in the minors for me to move them up more aggressively, and all three have the potential to easily be among the team's top 10-20 prospects at this time next year. Again, the Power 50 is a good resource to help get a feel since it is a collaborative ranking between myself, MassHaas and Toby. Each one of us likes some players better than others, but for the most part our rankings are all in the same range, and I'm guessing the final prospect poll will be rather close to our rankings.

The Brewers now have Murray, Braddock and Lofgren coming to camp. Melvin has said numerous times that he would like another lefty in the 'pen, as it would seem as though this trio will battle it out (possibly with Narveson) for that job. Murray is an interesting prospect that I'm curious if he was working on anything specific from a year ago. Looking at his career splits, it doesn't seem as though he has been really that much more remarkable against LH batters (in some areas, he has been more effective against RH batters). But last year, his numbers, at least at AAA, were a lot different, not only striking out LH batters at a higher rate, but also inducing a ton of ground balls. 6.75 GO to FO in 15 innings of work may not be the largest sample size, but compare that to 1.55 vs. RH hitters in 35 innings of work. And as noted, at worse he should provide very good depth. Lofgren would have the natural advantage over both Braddock and Murray just because he has to stick on the big-league roster, although we'll be told the job will be awarded to the pitcher that does the best job in spring training.

Thanks for pointing out Mat Gamel battlekow. While he technically no longer qualifies as a rookie in 2010, similar to Manny Parra a couple of years ago, he is still considered a prospect. When in doubt, consult the Power 50 for those that are eligible. If your player isn't listed on the Power 50, there's a good chance he shouldn't be in your top 20 http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. Anyone want to take a guess at who clancy had at #4...again? Just giving you trouble clancy, I enjoy receiving and looking over all of the top prospect lists, as everyone clearly has a different way to quantify prospects.

Guys, for whatever it's worth, I e-mailed Tom Haudricourt about this rumor earlier today. He responded and downplayed it quite a bit, saying the Mariners aren't keen to trade Morrow at all. So I guess we shouldn't hold our breaths for a move involving him. I'm not necessarily questioning the actual truth to this, but do you remember how TH responded to the person in his blog that said Randy Wolf was close to signing a 3-year, $27 million dollar deal with the Brewers a few days before the rumblings actually surfaced in the media? I seem to remember a Santa Claus reference. He's pretty good at downplaying rumors, because 99% of the time he's going to be right. Just wait until he asks Doug Melvin about this and he'll respond by saying either "we don't currently have any active trade discussions," or "I haven't spoke to (Zduriencik) in three weeks." I'm sure the Mariners would want Mat Gamel in return, as they definitely have a need for corner impact bats. If you asked Doug Melvin about that I'm sure he would tell you that he's not keen to deal him either http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. I'm luke-warm on Morrow. I know the Brewers tried to get him for Hardy, of which the Ms obviously passed, but Gamel has the whole pre-arby thing going for him and may overall be a better fit. But I'm not too confident Morrow will ever put it together, at least not to be a starter.

FYI, Chuck Lofgren was acquired after the latest Power 50 update. I know Mass has touched on this elsewhere, but if you rely on the Power 50 to come up with your own list, you may want to take him into consideration. Not that it matters, but he probably would be just on the outside of my own personal top 20, somewhere in the 22-26 range, but I could definitely see where someone would rank him higher given his production at the AA and AAA levels the next few years, not to mention his potential contributions on the 2010 ballclub.

colby, I bet Boston targets Adrian Gonzalez first in a trade & has Beltre as the fallback. I've heard they could pursue Nick Johnson as well, but yes, Gonzalez would give them another big bat their lineup could use. Reports have him in CF with Ellsbury in LF...Cameron is aging, so he can be expected to decline, especially over 2 years. And I've heard Ellsbury stays put. Regardless, Cameron & Ellsbury is a step down from Ellsbury & Bay. The fact that Cameron is aging and can be expected to decline doesn't help that fact. They will need to get that offense from somewhere else. A full year of VMart behind the plate could do it, as could an acquisition like Gonzalez, but again, at this point in time I think Holliday might have been a better pickup than Lackey + Cameron.

I think this is an interesting move. Obviously Theo Epstein values what Cameron brings to the team, but he's going to fall short in matching Bay's production offensively. It sounds as though the Red Sox view him as the replacement in LF, where IMO his defense would be wasted a little (or at least he won't be as valuable) with Ellsbury in CF and Drew (and Hermida given Drew's inability to stay healthy) in RF. Unless the Red Sox have another move up their sleeve, I'm guessing this also takes them out of the running for Matt Holliday. They could sign Adrian Beltre next, going the pitching and defense route, as they would be solid at every position on the field. Their offense would still be potent, although it doesn't appear, unless they make another big move or two, that they will be as dangerous as they were a few years ago, not to mention not nearly as dangerous as the Yankees' lineup. They should easily have the best starting staff 1-5, but I'm wondering if they would have been better off trying to land a big bat like Holliday.

If Lee is dealt, this makes no sense to me. I know I gave the Phillies a lot of credit for turning away from Halladay to acquire Lee, as it turned out to be an incredibly astute acquisition for them. He was money down the stretch and during the playoffs, almost guaranteeing a win. Halladay is a great pitcher, but we've all seen great pitchers have different results in the postseason. I guess I don't understand why the Phillies are getting cute with this move, unless they really had a serious falling out with Lee. It seems as though they may be getting caught up with the idea of acquiring Halladay, who as noted doesn't pose an upgrade over Lee. If the Mariners make this happen, good for them and Jack Z.

I bought a single-stage Toro before the snow hit last year. It has the little blue lever that makes it easy to switch the chute from one side to the other, which is a really nice feature, and I think it was around $600 (I think it was one of the cheaper ones in which you didn't have to mix the gas and oil together). My driveway is about 4 cars long by 2 across with a separate slab for another car, and before yesterday it has worked just fine. Yesterday's snow put it to the test however, as I had to break out the shovel for the end of the driveway thanks to the street plowing, but that was the first time I had to do that, which included last year's incredibly snowy December. One nice thing about the single-stage is that they sweep the snow completely off of the pavement (and it helps propel the unit). IIRC, two-stage snowthrowers don't get the snow completely off of the surface. My single-stage also throws the snow farther than most, but of course not as far as a two stage. It hasn't been a problem for my driveway, but your driveway of course is a few cars longer and wider. When I researched mine a year ago, everyone told me to get a Toro. Ariens was also suggested with the 2-stage units. If money is an issue, many places such as Bill's Power Center on Capital Drive in Brookfield have used models you can buy, which may help keep you below $1,000 if you do go with a 2-stage. There's a smaller shop on Lisbon Road (Hwy K) just West of Calhoun and just East of Brookfield Rd. that sells both new and used and offer very good service.

reillymcshane, nice job with the research, and overall good post. I know it's time consuming to come up with those numbers, but I would be interested to see where all playoff teams from the past 10 years fall in as far as payroll is concerned given the parameters you outlined, as well as seeing the results of the teams that made a one-to-three year window to be successful as you noted.

pitchleague, in saying that if it doesn't work out I was thinking more along the lines of his performance in spring training and whether or not he makes the 25-man roster. I do understand your point, but I'm guessing the Brewers won't carry him on the 25-man roster just because of this initial investment. sargennm, I'm guessing Peterson was involved with this decision. When he was hired it was noted that he would be involved with all pitching-related decisions, from the type of players they target which I'm guessing would effect the players they end up taking in the draft as well. Also, I think it would be a really bad decision to non-tender either Bush or Villanueva. Villanueva started slow but seemed to finish strong. Bush has an every-other good year tendency, which means he's due for a much better season in 2010. Both are too good to simply let walk just to clear payroll and roster spots.