Fatter than Joey

Anyone know the general consensus from Cards/Cubs fans about this trade? They should be afraid. Very afraid. Cubs -- They have a .600 winning pct, fueled by a +102 scoring differential (the next largest in the NL is +78). The Cubs have already addressed some of their weaknesses already (CF -- Edmonds, Johnson), and the average Cub fan knows that their team will be active in pursuing what their team needs. Furthermore, I don't think the Cubs care who wins the WC, which some team has to win, and is the Brewers more likely slot. I don't think the Cubs fan gets very concerned about this. Cards -- I suspect this deal is more concerning to the Cardinal fans, as their playoff slot (WC) is threatened.

As far as CC only being worth 2 wins. I don't know how anyone can believe there is a valid way to quantify something like that. There is just too much variance in both the ripple effect and the very unique circumstances each player goes to that make each case different. There most certainly are valid ways to estimate a players impact. Although, I don't think Russ is selling his results as anything more than an approximation. Generally speaking -- if you replace a league average player (Jorgenson Marlins), with a MVP caliber player (Ryan Howard MVP season) you net about 5 wins. CC is a MVP caliber player, McClung is a league average player, so for half of a season, it is certainly historically reasonable to conclude that CC will give us 2-3 additional wins. McClung has started 8 games for the Brewers, we are 6-2 in his starts, one of the losses, the Brewers only scored 1 run. CC would probably have lost that game as well. The other loss (6-7), McClung gave up 5ER and CC would have probably faired better. So in 8 starts, the Brewers would have picked up 1 win or so, again Russ's estimate seems reasonable. In Bush's last 8 starts the Brewers are 5-3 (The 3 losses, 6-3, 10-2, 7-2. Bush gave up 4, 3, 5 ERs) -- as we can see -- the Brewers offense didn't help much in these games, in one game the BP gave up 7 ER -- both factors that are out of the SP's control. Could CC done better than Bush? most probably yes, would he have won all three games? -- probably not -- I think CC may have won 1.5 of them that Bush didn't -- again Russ's estimate seems fair. We had this same discussion when Yo got hurt. The loss of Yo sucked, but Russ told us, it would be a 3-4 game differential over the course of the year -- and for the most part, I think if you look at what the Brewers have done since Yo's injury, we have probably at most lost 1-2 games so far with the Brewers losing Yo. Losing Yo is probably going to have about the same net effect as adding CC. Additionally I think people are horribly undervaluing 2 wins for a team in the 85-95 win threshold. Most of your playoff teams are going to fall in that 85-95 win range, being able to slide up 2 wins when your playoff team pool is jammed in a 10 win range is really huge. This is a lot like saying you give a horse a 2 length advantage in a competitive race.

I always thought "Final Countdown" was the penultimate stupid song. Every ska band worth its salt has a cover of Final Countdown, as discussed below:

Were he to be shipped over in a trade, he could be optioned to the minors. If I'm wrong, someone please correct me. You are correct, Crabbe was a rule 5 selection.

Doyle Alexander HAS to be way up there. Especially since Atlanta landed some prospect named John Smoltz. Beat me to it. As painful as losing Smoltz was... this has to go down as one of the best deadline trades. Alexander started 11 games for the Tigers and they went 11-0, (Alexander 9-0), the Tigers had 5 shutouts in that stretch, and were able to keep in front of the BJs and win 98 games. The flip side to this story is Alexander got hit hard by the Twins in the ALCS and the Twins went to the WS.

Mota gave up two ground balls and a walk, with just a little luck it could have easily been 2 outs with one on at that point. Mota used up his luck on the 1st of July -- (Rivera DP). He still walked a batter and was pitching behind in the count yesterday. I think its clear Yost doesn't trust him, but was hoping Mota could work through his problems with a safe lead.

I wonder if Mota would refuse assignment if DFA'd? Yep. -- He has 7 years of service so he would likely tell the Brewers to pound sand and continue sending him his checks.

I just looked at his career stats and don't really buy this. He usually logged 200 or more innings with and ERA under 3.80. A 3.80 ERA was nothing special back in the 1970s-80s, if you look at his ERA+ it is right around, and even below 100 in some years. Ryan benefited from playing in the Astrodome, where nobody hit HRs. Jose Cruz led the Astros in HRs, in 1979 with 9. The Astros hit 15 HRs at home in 1979 -- Opponents hit about 30. Ryan was hardly ever the best pitcher on his team. In NY, Koos and Seaver were better, Tanana was a better pitcher with the Angels, and JR Richard & Mike Scott were better during Ryans stay in Houston. Ryan's longevity was incredible.

I'd love to know why this was Ned's fault? Ned could have walked Jackson as others have pointed out. Mota got behind Hammock, walked Burke on 5 pitches, Mota probably got hit harder the other day, but the Brewers D bailed him out, whereas today they didn't show up. Mota sucks, we sorta should have seen it coming.

Oh.... I have the solution. Tell the other sausages something to the effect of -- "Hey -- let's keep it close for entertainment's sake, and only run hard after the halfway point" --- and then of course don't. That's exactly what I would do.

If there has ever been a worse combination of music and lyrics in the history of humans creating rhythmic sound, I'd like to know what it is. James Blunt -- You're Beautiful.

Cub fans digging through the garbage Isn't this already happening?

wonder if they are so plentiful now though compared to a few years back? I think that they are worth about $10 or so as books, they are not rare by any means -- and in some cases have the only cards of certain Brewers. I broke up a few of the books a couple of years ago, and sent out a lot of the cards to be signed, to complete my Brewer collection.

I know Bucky Dent -- 1981, there was a big deal made about that as Dent got the nod over Yount. EDIT: -- I am sure that many of the 70s SS -- Bowa, Patek, etc... will have .300 OBPs. I am sure an OF will pop up. EDIT2: -- I am certain you will find some guys that had crappy OBPs that were at the end of their HOF career (Willie Mays), or a prenniel AS player that was hurt or having a bad year (Strawberry), or a guy that was part of a good team that had lots of other members (Vince Coleman). I don't think you will find a many players like Braun though..., i.e. not a prenniel AS, or not a guy winding down a long career.

wins I would say with 90% certainity

I actually think he's (Ryan) pretty overrated in general. Agreed. I think he was a great pitcher, but he wasn't near as good as Seaver or Carlton. He's an interesting case. Carlton, too. They had almost exactly the same career WHIP -- a very pedestrian 1.25. Carlton won 4 Cy Youngs, and was probably the best pitcher in the game around 1980. Then he flamed out and was a crappy pitcher for a few years. Ryan on the other hand had some really good years in TX in the twilight of his career. Ryan finished his career strong, Carlton didn't.

Nolan Ryan had a career 526 win %. Does that mean he was only a slightly above average player? It's telling of his career though. Ryan walked a lot of batters, and got hit pretty good. He often wasn't the best pitcher on the staff.

I agree more with Nate's list than the original -- but the original i think is about right. I'd be tempted to move Everett up a tier. Tulo has an incredible arm as well.

I still think their only deserving all-star is Ben Sheets, with maybe Sal Torres on the cusp, but I'm definitely in the minority there. I agree with you overall... The only thing I think that perhaps you didn't touch on, is that Fielder has stiffer competition at 1b than Braun does in the OF (given there are 3 OF spots). I think Sheets is the only lock -- I suspect Braun may get in -- I don't see Torres getting on the radar, his nice season notwithstanding.

cameron canceled the last time that he was suppose to sign on auto fridays so maybe signing is beneath him. No. This isn't the case -- I have found Cameron to be a very gracious signer. Sometimes before games, players can be a bit preoccupied. Cameron is a good guy.

wow...........this thread is a huge waste of time. comedians you (plural) are not. Thats 3.6667 ellipses...! Thanks for pointing out the plural usage of "you" -- If you would have used the singular form, I would have went nuts trying to figure out which poster was not a comedian.

but is "3TO" a nickname specific to Branyan? Not really -- The 3TO concept has probably been around for about 10 years or so, and the first guy I remember the 3TO people talking about was Rob Deer -- and then McGwire, as Deer was already retired. Certainly BF.net has taken the 3TO concept and Neverlandingly has embraced it with Branyan. Branyan isn't the first player to be the standard bearer for the 3TO, but he certainly has been the most prolific.

My favorite W/L stat: In 1972 Steve Carlton won 27 games for a team that won 59. You also can't judge managers on wins and losses either. I disagree -- If a team should win 81 games, and they win 85 or 75, the first place I would look is at the manager.

Can we judge a starting pitcher/manager/team by won-loss record? Absolutely. W/L's may not build the strongest case, but it is certainly data. I almost get the feeling that some people never think it's a valid measure, regardless of the circumstance. Like any stat/result, it has it's place. But isn't it basically the bottom line of the game? Yes. You can't get away from the fact that W/L's is how they award championships.

Why are people in Chicago so fat? There are Dunkin Doughnuts every 50 feet in Chicago. I think people in Chicago eat a lot of Dunkin Doughnuts.