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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Fans are free to like or dislike any player they want. It's a personal preference. But to get angry AT a professional athlete for injuries is childish, IMO. And I see plenty of fat players all over the league, especially pitchers. I see plenty of perfectly fit players getting hurt all the time. Assuming that Sheets could have reduced or eliminated his injuries had he been in better shape is quite the assumption, IMO. Inner ear problems? Finger injury? Come on now. The muscle injuries perhaps, but who the heck knows. Anecdotely, I don't see a huge, obviously correlation. It just seems like a convenient way to justify ripping into Sheets for something he probably had little or no control over. I think people are better off just sticking with the argument, "It's my right to boo!" than trying to rationalize their emotional venting. Just say you do it because it makes you feel better. At least it's the truth.
  2. rluzinski
    Yes, Sheets deserved all the crap he got from our well educated fans. Even before he had his string of injuries, he was one of the best starters in the league and many Brewer fans didn't even like him. He didn't "know how to win", after all. Then, when he starts getting injured, it's obviously because he doesn't have a 6 pack, like every other pitcher in the league. It seems like I can't get through a whole game anymore without our wonderful fan base booing a Brewer at least once. It makes me want to go to less games.
  3. rluzinski
    Unless a team scores 6+ runs a game, they idea bad offensive production at one position doesn't hurt them seems completely illogical to me.
  4. rluzinski
    And you also decided to weigh more heavily Kendall's production in Chicago to incorrectly conclude that Kendall would beat his projections for 2008. That's not to say that your methods aren't an improvement over blindly accepting all data but let's not cherry pick the hits without mentioning the misses. I can use anecdotal evidence to prove anything. You really shouldn't discard data ONLY because it doesn't match up with expectations. If you know a guy is hurt or if you have other pertinent information that isn't captured in a guy's stat line, you should be able to beat statistical projections over the long haul, certainly. But we have to expect players' production to be way above or below expectations some of the time from randomness alone. I've made simple spreadhseets to create the most consistent player imaginable. The guy had the exact same chance to get a hit every AB. Sure enough, that little bugger STILL had some terrible slumps and some glorious hot streaks over 700 PA. A hot or cold streak proves nothing on its own.
  5. rluzinski
    If you want to offer up your best personal guess on a player's expected future performance, you can do whatever you want. If you are trying to do objective statistical analysis, you can't subjectively pick and choose what you want be in your sample. Some projection systems (like Marcel) use the last 3 years of data and weigh the more recent production more then the older production. They do this because they've found it to result in most accurate forcasts. Marcel uses 50/30/20. They do lot's other things but that's rough explanation for one way to use the raw data. Ennder is fond of digging into the data and finding streaks. Threre may be some utility in that (especially if a bad streak is injury related) but if we are talking sample statistics, it's a big no no. We almost never know if a drastic change in production is a result of a drastic change in underlying talent, so we are almost forced to assume it's just statistical noise. If our aim is to estimate true talent, there is no good reason to not include the begining of Hart's 2008 season or the Brewers great start in 2007.
  6. rluzinski
    Melvin has put little emphasis on defense during his stint with Milwaukee and I get the impression that Gamel is no exception. Good stick, no defense. It's almost inevitable that he'll end up in RF.
  7. rluzinski
    The chances of scoring at least 1 run increases by about 3% with a successful sacrifice, so I don't think it really mattered, either way. http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902score.html
  8. rluzinski
    Peavy has a career road ERA of 3.82 and he's in his prime now, so it's hard to project him as being anything over a 3.75 ERA pitcher in a neutral park. I'd guess something closer to 3.5. Let's say that Peavy is worth about $17 mil a year on average, over the life of his current contract. Assuming the Brewers exercise the team option for 2012, that would mean that Peavy's contract almost perfectly matches his projected performance. That mean's that whomever the Padres get back in a trade should also be roughly equal to what they are going to get paid. Any pre-free agent player with any talent is going to be worth more than he's getting paid, so I just can't get on board the "Let's get Peavy" train. It will make the Brewers better this year but it's going to bleed too much talent, IMO.
  9. rluzinski
    With the way our guys have hit as pinch-hitters, or the way all PH's hit, I don't know if we gn much by pinch-hitting for Kendall. The average player performs significantly worse coming in as a PH than if he's playing the whole game but Kendall is SUCH a bad hitter that I think it's worth going to the bench and possibly even gettingt he platoon advantage on a regular basis with him.
  10. rluzinski
    Letting Cat bat against a lefty. Refusing to pinch hit for Kendall. Different manager....
  11. rluzinski
    Am I the only one worried about Cat having a good game against a righty? It worked out today but I think it was the dead wrong choice.
  12. rluzinski
    Counsell: Projection: .230 / .325 / .325 2009: .319 / .387 / .415 (94 AB) A new batting stance does not begin to explain the difference between his expected and actual performance right now. He has a .363 BABIP right now vs. .291 for his career. Which number do you think it will be closer to going forward? Maybe his new stance will help but we shouldn't expect him to even be an OK hitter at this point.
  13. rluzinski
    I don't like Hall posing either but that has almost nothing to do with his poor production. And maybe Hall just doesn't have the skillset that allows him to go opposite field very often. To suggest he is just being stubborn seems unfair to me. Some players just can't do it and many are still good. Hall can't do it and he's not very good.
  14. rluzinski
    Going forward, I think Kendall is a .330 OBP / .320 SLG kinda guy and Rivera is .300 / .430. I also think Kendall's supposed pitch calling skills has no real value and his arm is nothing special. I have no problem with Rivera getting more starts but I don't think he's much of an improvement. Neither are very good.
  15. rluzinski
    If this team really wants to win, it will put Hart on the bench when he sucks. That would be great if a team knows when a player is going to play well or not but it doesn't work that way. I could see Hart starting to lose some AB against righties or get a day or two off but that's about it right now. The Brewers are doing what they think is going to maximize their wins. You might not agree with them but it's silly to accuse them of not really wanting to win. I think a 150 games is a fair way to judge a somewhat veteran player. So, that's going to give you a better idea of what to expect going forward than including all of last year or looking at his full body of work? The more recent the production, the better it is at predicting future production, obviously. But to look at AB #150 and ignore #151-160 because they don't support your argument is not objective analysis. We all know Hart has not been good for some time. The question is, what do we expect going forward?
  16. rluzinski
    This reminds me of Haudricourt proving that the Brewers had below average talent because they had a sub .500 record in their last 162 games at one point last year. Hart's recent production is very discouraging but purposely selecting the worst starting point you can find is not sound analysis. Hart has an updated ZiPS projection of .275/.331/.473/.804. That is certainly nothing special for a corner outfielder but suggesting he be benched in favor of Cat is short sighted.
  17. rluzinski
    The sprinting into the clubhouse thing was most certainly a dig at the Cards for whining to the media and I loved it. Booo friggin, hoo. A team celebration is a team celebration. Who cares what they do, exactly? The game is over.
  18. rluzinski
    I'm glad to see Macha is willing to use Hoffman here. This is a HELL of a lot more important than saving him for a 3 run lead save. Anyone know whats going on with Macha and the umps. The St. Louis annoucers are really confused as well. There was some confusion over where Hoffman was in the lineup.
  19. rluzinski
    I think hit and runs are one of the dumbest hold-overs from the good ol' days, when teams regularly won 1-0 and players could barely get the ball out of the infield. Force a batter to swing at junk and force a base runner to attempt a steal, even if he can't get a good lead. BOOO!
  20. rluzinski
    Macha needs to go out there and make his case, since it could influence a call down the line. Umps are human and people can be biased and not even know it. But to to suggest that players will physically perform better if they see their manager have a hissy fit on the field is implausible, in my opinion.
  21. rluzinski
    Why even use DiFelice here? Complete waste of time.
  22. rluzinski
    It's been a good game so far, guys. Down by 1 with 9 outs to go.
  23. rluzinski
    Why is it so hard to take some pitches? I assume the scouting report says to attack Baker early in the count, since he's probably throwing a strike.
  24. rluzinski
    Bush recording 4 of his first 5 outs via the DP? Didn't see that coming.
  25. rluzinski
    It's a shame Sveum was so stubborn himself and didn't listen to his own advice. Maybe he wouldn't have finished with a career OBP under .300.
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