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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    It does to me. Last year, his first full season, he was 79th of 88 "qualifying" pitchers in WHIP (tied with Suppan). You use only WHIP to decide if a player did well or not? It seems more like you are just cherry picking to me. He had an above average K rate, below average walk rate and average HR rate. His BABIP bad but K rate and walk rate are the stats you want to focus on with a limited sample size (one season). His FIP was 4.16, and his ERA was 4.39. Anyone can define "disappointed" as they see sit but Parra was an average pitcher, when you look at the big pitcher. Not bad for a guy's rookie season.
  2. rluzinski
    I don't think anyone is accusing Braun of anything here except bad fashion. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif I have never seen such a good player questioned so much by his hometown fans, especially one who has had no obvious triggers like contract disputes or law breaking. So if it's a guy who is not good at baseball, it's understandable if people question is character? I know that really is how it works but aren't we supposed to pretend that's not true?
  3. rluzinski
    The offense is actually a function of the pitcher's effectiveness, not the other way around. What evidence supports that? That suggests that all hitters hit inversely proportional to the talent of the pitcher. That's not the case at all. Has Fielder and Braun just faced a lot of bad pitchers? Of course not. Not even close. The numbers suggest that it's roughly a 50/50 exchange. If the league average OPS is .750 and a pitcher has a .700 OPS against and the batter has a .800 OPS, we expect about a .750 OPS in the exchange. There's obviously a lot more that goes into it but it's nothing like what you are suggesting. The pitching is probably more like 60-70% of a game, a good pitcher doing his thing will keep any offense down. Sure, an elite pitcher can shut down an entire team of mediocre players. That goes without saying. An elite hitter can destroy a mediocre pitcher. All I am telling you is the percentage that the starting pitcher has control of. If he has only a 30% say in what happens but that 30% is better than any other pitcher in the league, he's going to have a huge say in the outcome of the game. Think about what influence an average starting pitcher has in a game against an average offense and average defense.
  4. rluzinski
    Right now, Parra's recent performance seems to be well out of line with even conservative expectations for him. I thought we were trying to identify what is wrong with him and what might be done to fix him. That's a very interesting topic. How does his win/loss record help answer that? I guess the answer is, because it helps to quantity the difference between his expected and actual performance but then wins and loses has to be the worst way to try and do it. So, I have to take back the notion that it's completely irrelevent when trying to judge how well a pitcher pitched. It's simply trumped by any number or other stats. Really, the only time a pitcher's win/loss record trumps every stat is when the question is, What's the pitcher's win/loss record? It's interesting to look at how much each group of players influences wins and loses. If offense and defense is 60 percent, then starting pithing is about 25 percent ) 2/3rds of 40 percent) and the bullpen is 15 percent. So even if you give the starter his share of offense and defense, they aren't even at 30 percent. By far the most from any one player but still just one part of determining the outcome of a game.
  5. rluzinski
    I think someone should post each player's production vs. their preseason projections (Marcel or ZiPS from fangraphs.com), so we can see qualitatively, how players are doing, relative to their expectations. I honestly don't think Mcgehee is anything but a below average 2B, offensively . A couple weeks of very good production isn't going to change my mind. As was already pointing out, saying that Parra continues to disappoint doesn't seem fair. He had a decent year in 2008, overall. He's had a bad start but a month ago, everyone was screaming to get Suppan out of the rotation. Lalst year it was Dave Bush. People need to learn to be more patient with the pitchers in general, IMO. And Bill Hall shouldn't even play against lefties now and should instead be basically DFA'd (I don't believe he has to accept a miner league assignment)? Instead, we are supposed to eat his contract and replace him with someone that is not as talented and put him in a platoon at 3B? Doesn't make much sense to me. The Brewers are on pace to win 95 games. Since I don't think they have the talent of a true 95 win team, I'd say luck is the only way they win that many games. They still seem more like an 85 win team to me, which would give them 88 wins on the season.
  6. rluzinski
    I'd like to compare it to playing blackjack. If you are sitting on the right of the dealer at a crowded table and are dealt say, a pair of Kings, then you don't split them if the dealer is in a position to possibly bust. The strategy is to just take the win, don't rock the table, and get out of that hand with a W. A pair of Kings on the dealer's left or in the middle of the table that is split receives far less condemnation than someone sitting on 3rd Base looking to double up some winnings. I think that analogy doesn't work in one important respect. First and foremost, you don't split 10's because it would result in less overall money won. So it's not just the safe strategy, it's the correct one. In contrast, if you always play to maximize saves for your best reliever, it results in less overall wins for your team. It's the safe strategy (by avoiding possible criticism from fans and the media, who don't know the optimal strategy) but it's not the correct one. I hope no one ever uses less than optimal strategy while playing blackjack simply to placate the other players. Maybe higher stakes blackjack is different, but I'm always amazed by how angry players can get at other players during low stakes blackjack. What the other players do is completely irrelevant over the long haul. It will help you as often as it hurts you. Do people willing to put up the big bucks realize that?
  7. rluzinski
    Wow great numbers vs. lefties so he's basiclly Jeff Keppinger. You called for him to be DFA's after saying your poured over the numbers and found he does nothing good but play decent defense. Hall has an OPS of .900 against lefties the last two years, so that was just an ignorant statement.
  8. rluzinski
    I'm looking at his body off work the last two years not just one 1,2,3 wiff job. I guess you weren't willing to get all sophisticated and look at his platoon split? Manny can be relegated to loogy status... That would be incredibly shortsighted.
  9. rluzinski
    We have three automatic outs in a row in the line-up tonight with Hall, Kendall, and the pitcher. And now they have 50% of the Brewer RBIs in this game. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  10. rluzinski
    OK, three run lead. More, more more! Bill Hall continues to suck against righties, lefties and tee ball tee's. How many AB against lefties has he even had lately? He has a .914 against him for the year, after 2 months, so it couldn't have been very many.
  11. rluzinski
    I think the most important stat that may 'trump' everything else right now IMO is that the Brewers are 3-8 when Parra starts and 27-14 with the other starters. If we are trying to figure out what's wrong with Parra (which is clearly the topic of this discussion), Parra's win/loss record is of no use, whatsoever.
  12. rluzinski
    I brought up the 3 run save because that is the worst time to use your best reliever. Using your best reliever to try and get that 1 run save is very often te best way to utilize them, so why would I object to that? Closer usually have the highest LI (leveraged index, see Fangraphs) on the team, which measures how important a particular point in a game is. So, the save stat isn't the worst way to measure leverage but it can be improved. And I think some people need to think harder about trying to correlate saves and blown saves to making the playoffs. Saves = wins and blown saves = loses. We already know that wins and loses corelate to making the playoffs. This discussion is about how to use you best reliever to maximize wins. Teams that have the best record on Sundays make the playoffs more. Teams that come from behind to win in the 9th .... Win the most 1 run games... Win after being behind... Hold on to the most 6th inning leads... Have the best record in extra inning games... It's like the stat about the Brewers record in games they HR in. A HR is worth 1.4 runs on average, so of course they have a good record in those games! It's not giving you any real insight.
  13. rluzinski
    I think Manny is one of those unfortunate guys that opponents just know they can beat, even though he has good stuff. I think the hitters are more confident that they can hit him than Manny is that he can get guys ou. Batters think they can beat Manny right now because Manny can't throw anything but his fastball for strikes. Batters are just waiting for his fastball. You are making the chicken the egg.
  14. rluzinski
    A couple of grand slams from the win....
  15. rluzinski
    Let Manny stay out there until his pitch count gets up. It already is. And why do the TV guys keep talking like a couple plays are the difference in this one. It's 10-1!
  16. rluzinski
    His walk rate has always been above average since getting called up but this year it's just been terrible. His command is just gone right now. P.S. I'm really hoping this thread doesn't devolve into every thread about a struggling player. Can we stay on topic and not turn this into another "Player X stinks! DFA Player X!"?
  17. rluzinski
    I guess that is what happens when the only pitch you can throw for a strike is your fastball. It kind of feels like Parra's ERA is getting little unfairly jacked up here. Not that it didn't stink a couple of innings ago. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/frown.gif
  18. rluzinski
    Sounds like Parra is going be in this game for awhile, no matter how ugly it gets. Macha isn't going to burn through his bullpen again.
  19. rluzinski
    This is just Manny being Manny. he's terrible and has no business being in this rotation. Melvin can't replace him soon enough IMO. Over the last 14 months, a significant number of fans have called for Bush, Suppan and Parra to be replaced ASAP. Call me crazy but I think sometimes fans are a little too quick to call for player's heads. Parra has been terribly frustrating this year but I don't think it's time to pull the plug on him.
  20. rluzinski
    So Macha comes out to chew out Parra. That will teach Parra to throw strikes! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  21. rluzinski
    Parra has just had terrible command this year. Many of his pitches are no where near the plate. He hasn't had a good walk rate since moving up to the majors but this year.... wow.
  22. rluzinski
    There's a non error from Gamel that will be forgotten but get's converted into an out by most third basemen, IMO.
  23. rluzinski
    Riske was actually one of those rare relievers who was consistently good throughout his career. What looked like a nice, safe signing 18 months ago now appears a total loss. That contract never really gave me a warm fuzzy feeling. $4+ mil a year for 70 innings of a good but nothing special reliever? And we get him at 31, 32 and 33 years old? I'm not saying it was necessarily a bad signing but just unnecessary.
  24. rluzinski
    Backup, I think there is some major misunderstanding going on here. I didn't initially even bring up the fangraph values nor have I given it my stamp of approval. I don't know how many times I've said I don't completely agree with all of its methodologies. I'M the one who pointed out it's origins. When a team signs a player, they are assuming SOME level of risk for every player. Some more than other's obviously. I have NO trouble docking Sheets for having had 100 percent chance of being hurt for the post season. Go for it, if you can figure out how much.
  25. rluzinski
    If you are dead set on exploring a hypothetical, how much do you think Sheets' value should be deducted for missing the playoffs? What would you do to try to quantify that? Of course, you are then forced into saying that Sheets' production would have been more valuable had the Brewers not made the playoffs. You are also forced into saying that Sabathia was worth significanly less because of his poor start in the post season. I mean, what team is going to pay $20+ mil for a pitcher who's just going to fall apart in the post season? And the best player in the league is basically worth nothing if his production causes his team to go from 45 wins to 52.. Once you start trying to value production relative to its context, it introduces all kinds of hard to answer questions. That doesn't mean it shoudln't be considered but I'm content with context neutral estimates in this situation.
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