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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    I finally tried to estimate "out on bases" for every NL team so far: Team GP AB R H SB CS BB HBP GDP LOB ROE OOB Houston Astros 61 2070 274 539 63 20 173 17 32 405 38 56 St. Louis Cardinals 62 2126 289 588 27 12 265 14 57 505 39 55 Cincinnati Reds 61 2062 270 522 45 21 233 9 41 440 38 51 San Diego Padres 62 2168 226 520 20 6 224 21 43 484 39 51 San Francisco Giants 60 2062 237 535 53 21 179 20 51 433 38 51 Los Angeles Dodgers 60 2023 262 535 50 20 202 15 59 419 38 50 Chicago Cubs 61 2150 346 615 42 17 255 25 44 497 38 46 Arizona Diamondbacks 60 1994 292 506 23 8 226 21 38 419 38 42 Colorado Rockies 60 2090 247 531 46 14 207 20 46 461 38 42 Milwaukee Brewers 60 2060 269 521 40 17 191 33 34 441 38 39 Florida Marlins 59 2025 289 526 29 11 181 18 34 403 37 36 Pittsburgh Pirates 60 2115 294 549 16 6 197 24 37 441 38 36 Atlanta Braves 61 2095 290 580 22 9 239 10 58 487 38 32 Philadelphia Phillies 62 2132 328 560 41 6 229 23 35 457 39 31 Washington Nationals 61 2029 229 474 23 11 203 30 54 432 38 30 New York Mets 59 2030 282 516 56 14 233 12 44 443 37 29 I say "estimate" because I can't find ROE (reached on error) on a team level. So instead, I found the average number errors per game and gave each team the same rate. The equation i used was: OOB = H +BB + HBP + CI (catchers interference) + ROE - LOB - GDP - R So what I am defining as an out on the bases is: * Out trying to advance * picked off * caught stealing * runner's interference? I did this quick. See any problems? Man, those Astros fans must be pissed!
  2. rluzinski
    I don't think we can assume that the Cubs will play 88 win ball the rest of the way. That projection is based on a 162 game season, filled with peaks and valleys. Who's to say they havent just been playing hot this entire season Again, that's the gambler's fallacy. By all rights, I should actually be combining the preseason projections with what they've done this year and slightly adjust up that 88 win, win%. I'm actually treating EVERYTHING they've done this year as a fluke.
  3. rluzinski
    Roughly speaking, with regard to scoring runs, 1 point of SLG is equal to around 1.8 points of OBP on average. For instance, Hall's numbers are REALLY bad since he's making SO many darn outs.
  4. rluzinski
    Roughly speaking, with regard to scoring runs, 1 point of SLG is equal to around 1.8 points of OBP on average. For instance, Hall's numbers are REALLY bad since he's making SO many darn outs.
  5. rluzinski
    "What teams on that list are you actually scared of right now? I really don't expect St. Louis or Florida to end up that many games over .500. Besides the Division leaders, maybe only Atlanta, New York, and Houston? I'd even expect Houston to fall some more when Berkman comes back down to earth. " Using the BP projections, we can assume that the Mets and DBacks will win their divisions and the Cards, Forida and Houston to fade. With those assumtions (and at this point, they are only educated guesses), we are left with the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves and Cardinals as the main contenders.
  6. rluzinski
    What a disgusting ninth inning last night. Are NOT paying attention!? http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/GOCUBS.jpg
  7. rluzinski
    My problem with this is that probably every team has a much better record when they hit bombs versus when they don't ... I'm not sure what this proves. It doesn't prove anything. It's common sense. I just used it as a jump off point to try and figure out what the hell Bill has been talking about all these years. A team reliant on the long ball might have a slightly more extreme run distribution (1 run one day, 6 runs the next) which would lose more games in theory In a practical sense, though, I don't think it really effects the distribution enough to have any kind of effect. The Brewers haven't had any noticable trouble in close games either. Last year they were 22-21 in 1 run games and are 12-6 this year. We need to get Bill Schroeder to either explain what the heck he's talking about or just shut up about it already. How about looking at a team's % of runs scored via HR vs. team's winning percentage? I guess that's the answer. I could look at HR/RS vs. win% but I don't know where to find %RS via HR. Any ideas? I'm not parsing retrosheet data http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  8. rluzinski
    The Brewers have hit 13 HRs and averaged of 6.7 runs per game over their 6 game winning streak. I just took a quick look at how the Brewers have fared in games where they hit a certain amount of HRs. First, we'll just look at runs: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/hrsvsruns.jpg Nothing surprising there. Now wins: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/hrsvswins.jpg I forgot about that 4 HR loss to Boston. Ouch. OK, so the Brewers are reliant on the HR. Is that a bad thing? Should other teams that aren't reliant on the HR be expected to win more games? How do I even prove Bill right or wrong? Does anyone even agree with Bill?
  9. rluzinski
    The original point of the column seemed to be how Hunt was superior to the lowly fans because he doesn't get too excited about wins and losses. If I had the stomach for it, I'd go back to last year to read his archives. I'm sure he was pretty level headed about it all.
  10. rluzinski
    As long as teams keep throwing games away against the Brewers, they can't be stopped! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  11. rluzinski
    Wow, Hunt almost writes a great article about how teams have to take it one game at a time and not get caught up in short term streaks, good or bad: http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=759141 Of course, then he says that the team better go at least 3-3 on this road trip. So close!
  12. rluzinski
    It's been about a month since I last looked at this. At that point, just about the entire team was grossly underperforming, offensively. We would have expected that to improve itself as time went on and that's exactly what we see: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/projectedvsactual0606-1.jpg Braun is now exceeding his projection. Fielder, Hart and Hardy are all moving in the right direction Weeks and Hall are spinning their wheels with below-expected production. After an incredible start, Kendall has regressed right to his preseason projection. Cameron still hasn't really gotten it going.
  13. rluzinski
    It's been about a month since I last looked at this. At that point, just about the entire team was grossly underperforming, offensively. We would have expected that to improve itself as time went on and that's exactly what we see: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/projectedvsactual0606-1.jpg Braun is now exceeding his projection. Fielder, Hart and Hardy are all moving in the right direction Weeks and Hall are spinning their wheels with below-expected production. After an incredible start, Kendall has regressed right to his preseason projection. Cameron still hasn't really gotten it going.
  14. rluzinski
    Glad to see the Crew start to edge out to the Golden West a little, despite their problems here. Since moving to the NL in 1998, the Brewers have a combined record of 751-927. That's a .448 winning% (73 win season). I think it's safe to say that over the last decade, the Brewers have had a problem against everyone. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif This is fun to look at, BTW: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/pos.shtml Most Games At Each Position In Franchise History C: Moore (850) 1B: Cooper (1257) 2B: Ganter (1449) SS: Yount (1479) 3B: Cirrilo (848) LF: Jenkins (910) CF: Yount (1150) RF: Burnitz (737) DH: Molitor (418)
  15. rluzinski
    Go Wood! WOO HOO! Let's rewind back to May 25th: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/NLCStandings0525.jpg But the Brewers fought back and went on a 9-1 run: http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/NLCStandings0606.jpg .... and lost 1/2 to the Cubs.
  16. rluzinski
    I don't understand why these discussions always devolve into whether the Brewers COULD afford Sheets. I think it's easy to see how they could make the financial resources available if they want to. The real question, IMO, is whether they SHOULD spend the money it would take. I guess we first need to come to a consensus on what he would get on the open market. 4 years , $15 mil without question, right? More like 5/100? That's assuming he logs 200+ inning this year, of course.
  17. rluzinski
    "I've abandoned the Brewers!" "I've abandoned my team!" I keep giggling when I read that. Who would be the one yelling, "Say it louder!?" Brian?
  18. rluzinski
    The only sport they cover very well is the Packers, Bob McGinn is as good a sportswriter as i've read anywhere and Tom Silverstein is also very good at his job. I agree completely. They don't just fill their articles with a bunch of cliche riddled garbage (except when Hunt decides to "contribute").
  19. rluzinski
    I don't understand why they don't let Kendall try the two-hole. Because he doesn't get on base very often and he can't hit for power? A 2 hole hitter in the 21st century has to do more than sacrifice the runner over. The only reason his stick has any value is because he's a catcher.
  20. rluzinski
    Said Brewers GM, Doug Melvin, "Honestly, I don't think we have any chance of resigning Sheets. When you also consider the Cubs great start, I'm feeling extreme pressure to trade Benny now or risk letting him go to another club this summer for nothing." It's impossible to separate the posturing from reality, IMO.
  21. rluzinski
    Well, maybe they wouldn't get so many stupid questions if the people with the smart questions thought they could be answered competently by them. Ask them about a prospect, I dare you. I ask them about anything but wins and RBIs. I'd rather just rely on the collective knowledge of the people at Brewerfan.net. I have no confidence that Tom H has any "insider perspective" worth listening to, either. That "Yost will be fired" post should have made that clear. Embarrassing. How much do these guys get paid to do this stuff?
  22. rluzinski
    Well, maybe they wouldn't get so many stupid questions if the people with the smart questions thought they could be answered competently by them. Ask them about a prospect, I dare you. I ask them about anything but wins and RBIs. I'd rather just rely on the collective knowledge of the people at Brewerfan.net. I have no confidence that Tom H has any "insider perspective" worth listening to, either. That "Yost will be fired" post should have made that clear. Embarrassing. How much do these guys get paid to do this stuff?
  23. rluzinski
    Well, maybe they wouldn't get so many stupid questions if the people with the smart questions thought they could be answered competently by them. Ask them about a prospect, I dare you. I ask them about anything but wins and RBIs. I'd rather just rely on the collective knowledge of the people at Brewerfan.net. I have no confidence that Tom H has any "insider perspective" worth listening to, either. That "Yost will be fired" post should have made that clear. Embarrassing. How much do these guys get paid to do this stuff?
  24. rluzinski
    Well, maybe they wouldn't get so many stupid questions if the people with the smart questions thought they could be answered competently by them. Ask them about a prospect, I dare you. I ask them about anything but wins and RBIs. I'd rather just rely on the collective knowledge of the people at Brewerfan.net. I have no confidence that Tom H has any "insider perspective" worth listening to, either. That "Yost will be fired" post should have made that clear. Embarrassing. How much do these guys get paid to do this stuff?
  25. rluzinski
    A Dodger sweep, and a Crew sweep, would mean 2.5 games out of first. So you may not have to wait long to come back over from the dark side and stop rooting for the A 1 in 128 chance of not having to wait long? Thrilling! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Should I get a Sosa or Prior jersey? Those both seem to be quite popular at Wrigley.
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