rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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Counsell getting "lucky" with the bases loaded?
rluzinski replied to TuesdaysWithRillo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Does the results of 98 PA "prove" that it is clutch play? Of course not. If it did, you could prove all sorts of silly things by looking for odd splits with 100 or less PA. In the same vein, I can't disprove that Counsell is clutch either. Maybe Counsell takes advantage of pitchers throwing him more strikes in that situation. Who knows? -
That's awesome. I'd forgotten that. Right now, our head-to-head success with the Cubs is a huge asset, and I'd imagine it's going to play a large role in terms of how the season shakes out in October. A 4-2 record against a particular opponent might as well be ignored. Heck, the Cubs outscores the Brewers in those games, 40 to 34. The Scrubbies are on the road a lot and have to play the dreaded west coast swing at San Diego and LA. To me, that road trip looks great for the Cubs. The Padres offense has been terrible and Peavy and Young are both hurt. Zambrano gets the start tomorrow. I'll be happy if the padres can get one. As for the Dodgers, Zambrano pitches in that series as well and the Cubs miss Penny (although he has gotten off to a poor start). I wish Brewer fans would just accept that the Cubs are a very good team. Yes, they've played a lot of home games but the teams they've played against collectively have .501 win% so far. They also have the largest run differential in the league. They've earned their great record. They still might fall apart but there's nothing I see that suggests it.
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No, I think that's a common nickname for people named Russell, though rluz could shed more light on that. For whatever reason, the name "Russell" seems to inspire many nicknames, with "Russell the Muscle" being the most popular. Some others: Russell the Love Muscle Russell Brussel Sprouts Pu-ssy Russy Rusty Rusty Jones Rosco Rosco P. Coltrane This was the beginning of my personal WOAS: http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Station/9622/imgb20.jpg
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The thing is its weird to predict. Right now on paper you say we should sweep the Orioles, but it always seems we struggle against bad teams from the AL. If you think that the Brewers should expect the sweep against a below average team, I can see how you are regularly disappointed. Baltimore hasn't even been that bad this year. The Brewers had a worse record a week ago. Never expect a sweep or to get swept in a 3 game series. It's simple math. You have to think that one team has an 80% or better chance of winning every game to make the sweep the likely outcome. I would like to predict that the Cubs are gonna be 10 games under .500 this month but unfortunately I don't think that is gonna happen. The Astros maybe, but the Cubs seem to have some form of luck on their side again this year. It has more to do with talent than anything else. The Cubs are a good team, the Astros aren't. If there's any team playing way over their heads, it's the Cardinals. I expect a below .500 month from them.
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Dave Bush's ERA under 5.5!! How about he gets that under 5.0 before the all star game?
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Astros Pitch Count Update: 4 IP, 126 pitches
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Russell Branyan strikes out too much to ever be useful to this team. Bill Hall might not be seeing RHers for awhile.
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Branyan's defense has been phenomenal so far.
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Walk Fielder to get to Hart? Sounds good to me. Astros pitchers have thrown 66 pitches through 2 innings. Wow.
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Wow. 37 pitches and counting for Chacon this inning.
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Hart looked like he might have been out but really, you could call that either way. I don't like that those "either way" plays always goes to the defense, anyway.
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Bush getting the solo shots out of the way early? Are JJ, Weeks, or Cameron really performing so well right now that having all three of them out of the lineup is actually going to hurt us that much? Braun, Fielder and Hart are the the only batters who's replacements are significantly worse, I think.
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Just eyeballing it, 14-12. 15 or 16 wins would make me very happy.
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Yost, Sheets and everyone else knew that he could have finished the game. That had nothing to do with why he was pulled. In a game that was effectively over, why have Sheets throw 130+ pitches? Now, if it was a 1 run lead with the bases loaded and Sheets still throwing well, I'd probably want to see him stay in there. 2B Joe Dillon CF Gabe Kapler LF Ryan Braun 1B Prince Fielder RF Corey Hart 3B Russell Branyan C Mike Rivera SS Craig Counsell RP Dave Bush That lineup with Bush pitching? I hope I don't see any "no killer instinct" bologna if the Brewers don't win this one. That said, while I think it's silly to base your order on defensive positions, is there an obviously better order that Yost could have gone with? Accepting that Hart is going to bat after Prince no matter what, I'd say no.
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Prior to that mistake, they really hadn't screwed that up in either league in quite a while. Justin Morneau winning it in 2006 is still ruthlessly mocked by the sabermetric community. Just look at this: 2006 AL OPS Leaders It's easy to argue that Morneau wasn't even the most player on his team that year.
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Why not let him finish the game? Because whether your starting pitcher gets a complete game or not has no effect on wins and losses? It's just a stat.
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Bill James came up with an equation to try and predict the Cy Young winner: Cy Young Points (CYP) = ((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + VB (see below) Victory Bonus (VB): A 12-point bonus awarded for leading your team to the division champsionship (pro-rated based on the current standings). Here's the list: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?statsId=6618 Sheet is currently 8th. Web is leading with 87 points. Of course, 54 of those points have come from his record, which tells you just how important it really is. Really though, if any pitcher wins 25 games these days, they are going to win the Cy Young, no?
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5/31/08 Astros (Moehler) at Brewers (Sheets): 6:05 PM CDT
rluzinski replied to wOOgiE22's topic in Archived Game Threads
You let a 30 year old competitor go until 130. If he doesn't get Lee, fine, take him out. Just because Berkman spoiled a bunch of good pitches, taking him out is the nancy way. I want Sheets strong in September. The complete game means nothing to the team. -
It seems to me that whomever came up with BABIP is cherry picking stats that favor the HR pitcher. Not at all. A pitcher's BABIP for a season tells you almost nothing about a pitcher's talents to begin. That's not because the pitcher has no control but because it's just small component. You need more than 200 innings with of balls in play to try and sort out the pitcher's BABIP skill.
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Yes, the Cubs are going to come back to earth and start playing closer to the level that they were expected to before the season started. Unfortunately, they were expected to win around 88 games, which puts them at 92 expected wins for 2008. 32 home games and 23 road games is a big deal too No it's not. It just means that the Cubs have to play 9 more games on the road than an average team at this point. An average team has about an 8% less of a chance winning on the road than at home (.540 winning% at home, .460 on the road). 8% x 9 games = about 3/4 of a win. It's certainly worth mentioning but the average team doesn't have that big of a home/road split.
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Al, I'm sure your disposable income allows you to blow $150 on something of you wanted to. If you choose to not spend it on a charity event, no one is going to judge for that. But to suggest that giving $100 to a charity (you get $50 of value pretty easy out of what they offer) is over the top for a guy in your income bracket, sounds silly. I'll bet you've lost more than that several times in one night of bad luck online poker.
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People usually look at BABIP to see how lucky or unlucky a player has been finding holes in a small sample. There is some skill involved but Jones having a .414+ BABIP suggests that he's probably gotten a little lucky with balls finding holes so far this year. Of course, you can just look at his BA to know he's gotten a little lucky (when I say lucky, I mean that his performance has been better than his actual skill). I don't really look at a batter's BABIP, though.
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We have sent guys out there that have proven they can not get out big league hitters and Weaver has proven he can get guys out in the past. All I am saying is that he is an option that this team has too look at. They are looking at it from AAA and it doesn't look good.
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If you want to just know how hard a ball was hit, just look at the ball velocity off the bat.
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I don't think Haudricourt ever knows what's going on. He's always saying goofy things that he pretends could be inside information but are really just his silly guesses. As for McClung... he's had a horrible major league career so far. What he's done in a couple of short starts tells us almost nothing about what to expect going forward. I certainly don't see how anything about his last start was promising, though.