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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    It won't be right if Branyan doesn't get a HR today.
  2. rluzinski
    But strikeouts are the same as any other out. If you don't get it now, you never will.
  3. rluzinski
    The problem with the Cameron signing is batting him 2nd plain and simple. Well that settles that. ?
  4. rluzinski
    All these statistics are a overly complicated ways to try and predict an unpredictable thing. It's not complicated at all. I used a few simple equations to estimate the expected performance of an average team against those teams (assuming each team's current record is representative of their true talent). Call it a guestimation if it makes you feel better. Dismissing the Cubs's 17-10 record through April because of their supposedly easy schedule is not supportable, as far as I can tell. It doesn't matter what their record was with or without Soriano or what their expected W/L is. The fact is they are a worse team without Soriano in the lineup. So, whether the Cubs are expected to lose half a game less or 10 games less is irrelevant? And the W/L record points out that we are better without Braun right? Maybe if we sent him back down we'll go on a 24-10 run. Stats lie, that's the point. Bad stats like that do, certainly. The trick is to educate yourself enough to be able to distringuish the difference. Or you can do what you've done and just reject all of it.
  5. rluzinski
    In both those lineups Prince would get walked 4 times.. would have been better to start Kapler and hit him behind prince We could only hope that Kapler's awesomeness would keep Prince from walking at all.
  6. rluzinski
    So the difference between Mike Cameron Bust and Mike Cameron $7 Million Player is 4 singles and two walks. No, because then his SLG would be too high. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  7. rluzinski
    So, really, I don't mind the cheap homers but why have the short porch and then the huge centerfield? Because if they had a normal CF witht hat short porch, they would give up more HRs than any other park in the league.
  8. rluzinski
    MGL can come across as terribly arrogant and heavy handed on message boards. If someone wants to call him a jerk, I won't call them wrong. Tango is the polar opposite of MGL, though. I've never seen a guy who can so easily stay above the fray of all the message board arguments surrounding the use of stats in baseball. It's amazing. I can't do it. He's also very helpful. I've emailed him several times with sabermetric questions and he has ALWAYS taken the time to look over my work and respond with suggestions and encouragement. You don't agree with his political beliefs? That's understandable. He's a liberal from Canada, which means he's very liberal by American standards. Of course, one man's "controversial political belief" is another man's common sense, so what are you going to do? Well, you could just click the "baseball only" filter on his blog and you'll never have to deal with it. Personally, while I don't always agree with him politically, I enjoy that the discussions generally stay pretty civil and intelligent. I think it's pretty absurd that you suggest he deletes comments on the basis of how they align with his own beliefs. You can skim any one of those threads and find plenty of dissenting opinions. Perhaps it was the quality of your comment that got it deleted?
  9. rluzinski
    If your expectations were for a superstar CFer, Cameron is not going to "prove you wrong." That said, he has plenty of value. For one, you are seriously underestimating Camerson's defense. Even at 35, it's not just good, it's great. He has a reputation as one of the best defenders in the league and UZR (defense metric) has him as the best CFer so far this year. It doesn't take any fancy numbers to get a feel for how much value being able to track down a would-be gapper can have. As for his stick, it's nothing special but it isn't bad either. His ZiPS projection (even after being updated with his bad current numbers) stands at .246/.334/.443./.776. For a guy who plays great defense, that plenty good. Of course, if you think a .776 OPS with lot's of strikeouts is significantly worse than one without alot of Ks, I could see how you might be underestimating his offensive value.
  10. rluzinski
    I've been to Minute Maid and thought it was a beautiful park. I don't even really mind the hill or train. Those short HRs are just silly, though.
  11. rluzinski
    What's this nonsense that he's just now showing he can hit? He hit .325 at Brevard last year. He hit .281 in the Pioneer League when he was 17. He hit .300 as a 19 year old in the Arizona Fall League a couple years ago. I don't know. Sometimes people get all crazy and start looking at things other than just BA to measure offensive worth. Escobar is having his first, solid year offensively this year in Huntsville. He's showing more patience and power. That said, it's 270 AB in AA and the guy is only 21. I don't see him getting brought up, yet.
  12. rluzinski
    So, I'm wondering how many "this stadium is a bandbox" type comments you guys will post in the IGT for today's game. I guess it depends on how many 295 ft HRs are hit this afternoon. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif The stadium is pretty cool in an amusement park funhouse kind of way. I see the little train and the slide/hill in CF but where's the revolving barrel? Minute Maid Park has a huge CF but still gives up over 10% more HRs than an average park. Lot's of cheapies, which is understandably annoying when the other team is getting them.
  13. rluzinski
    They also didn't play anyone in that stretch. 27 games, 16 home, 11 road. Opponents had an average win% of .485 (79 win team). Let's see how that schedule might have benefited a .500 team: Date OPP Opp WIN% Exp Wins Mar 31 MIL .523 .517 Apr 2 MIL .523 .517 Apr 3 MIL .523 .517 Apr 4 HOU .500 .540 Apr 5 HOU .500 .540 Apr 6 HOU .500 .540 Apr 7 @PIT .485 .475 Apr 9 @PIT .485 .475 Apr 10 @PIT .485 .475 Apr 11 @PHI .582 .378 Apr 12 @PHI .582 .378 Apr 13 @PHI .582 .378 Apr 15 CIN .463 .577 Apr 16 CIN .463 .577 Apr 17 CIN .463 .577 Apr 18 PIT .485 .555 Apr 19 PIT .485 .555 Apr 20 PIT .485 .555 Apr 21 NYM .484 .556 Apr 22 NYM .484 .556 Apr 23 @COL .400 .560 Apr 24 @COL .400 .560 Apr 25 @WSN .388 .572 Apr 26 @WSN .388 .572 Apr 27 @WSN .388 .572 Apr 29 MIL .523 .517 Apr 30 MIL .523 .517 .485 14.1 Expected Record of 14.1 - 12.9. That schedule added about half a win. The Cubs are frauds! the problem with the law of averages is that it means the cubs are incredibly overdue to win the world series as well.. Lucky for the Brewers... "As invoked in everyday life, the "law" usually reflects bad statistics or wishful thinking rather than any mathematical principle." Law of Averages Take that, Cubs fans!
  14. rluzinski
    I have no problem with maximizing Hart's ABs. Why give Weeks the extra 70+ AB?
  15. rluzinski
    This is not going to bode well for the already difficult schedule that the Cubs have in front of them in the month of June. 7-10 June = 49-33 overall record. And that's a longshot.
  16. rluzinski
    Soriano is what, their 5th most valuable player? Yes! the Cubs will win only 94 games now!
  17. rluzinski
    6 of his 12 hits have been HRs. Nice start.
  18. rluzinski
    Yost says nothing serious. Just tweaked it. It's been bothering him for awhile, as most already know. He'll get the day off tomorrow, since it's a day game anyway.
  19. rluzinski
    Another pointless prediction. Ready? Houston will win the game because of all these shenanigans. Whoever is going to pitch for the Brewers better diffuse the anger and focus the Astros will now bring. I'm glad that the focused anger of the Astros didn't translate into those almost-inevitable HRs http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  20. rluzinski
    Never mind having a game to relax and enjoy. Arghhh.
  21. rluzinski
    Hardy's right shoulder has been giving him trouble for awhile now, hasn't it? Councell starting every day for awhile?
  22. rluzinski
    HRS ARE STOOOPID!
  23. rluzinski
    Defense is inherently a team activity. Constantly extending the mathematical formulas won't change that. I think you bring up some valid points (athough I think "lushness" is a minor factor) but I don't buy your apparent conclusion (persuing defensive metrics is fruitless). UZR is certainly a work in progress but so is trying to gauge defense by any measure. If you look at UZR over 2 or 3 years, the results are quite reasonable. I think it's faiar to say that he (and others trying to use hit ball locations) are on the right track. Maybe the ever aggressive salesperson Mitch Lichtman Wow, thems fighting words. If I may ask, what caused you to have such a negative opinion of him? I wouldn't exactly call him amiable but....
  24. rluzinski
    If you allow teams to hit your players without fear of retaliation I think you end up with a team afraid to get hit and allow the pitcher to take control of the inside of the plate and your pitcher will not have the same luxery. I'm sure you can see the problem that can cause. Unless the pitcher is headhunting (and in that case, all bets are off) I'd love the opponent's pitcher to intentionally hit 4 or 5 guys a night. I suppose there's a chance of injury but I think it's pretty low. I don't really buy the "controlling the inside part of the plate" theory (not to say I couldn't be wrong but I've seen no evidence of it). If there is a need ot cut down on HBPs, the rules should be changed to increase the punishment for it (2 bases under some circumstances, or something along those lines). Of course, baseball perfrected their sport 75 years ago, so it will never happen.
  25. rluzinski
    By diminishing value, do you mean: (projected performance in 2011) x (projected % of season played) I've seen some mini studies showing how many innings an above average 30 year old starting pitcher accumulates over the next few years and it wasn't pretty.
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