rluzinski
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Everything posted by rluzinski
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It's interesting that you ask a question like that, Rluz, since you are a hard core stats guy and out to prove that there is no such thing as clutch. I'm not "out to prove" anything. I don't have some underlying agenda to dismantle the grand ol' game, one regression at a time! I just prefer statistical evidence over conjecture or anecdotal evidence. There have been studies that have found evidence that certain players do have a "clutch" skill. What they found was a pretty small effect so far, however. Tango is a huge fan of the "wisdom of the crowds" theory, though. He has shown that as a group, fans can value defensive skills of individual players pretty well and can also project offensive numbers very well. He's done a lot of work coming up with a way to quantify clutch ABs and he's now giving the fans the chance to identify the players they want up in those high leverage situations. If the fans select an inferior batter over a better one, he's going to conclude that they feel that player is more clutch. Knowing that, he can test to see if that batter had indeed performed better than expected in clutch situations for 2008. You believe in clutch and think some Brewers perform better or worse when the going gets tough? Rank them as such. If you don't, just pick who you think is the best overall hitter. It's up to you. I'm not sure who that is because I dont' have the data in front of me. I hear that the internet has that kind of stuff.
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It's interesting that you ask a question like that, Rluz, since you are a hard core stats guy and out to prove that there is no such thing as clutch. I'm not "out to prove" anything. I don't have some underlying agenda to dismantle the grand ol' game, one regression at a time! I just prefer statistical evidence over conjecture or anecdotal evidence. There have been studies that have found evidence that certain players do have a "clutch" skill. What they found was a pretty small effect so far, however. Tango is a huge fan of the "wisdom of the crowds" theory, though. He has shown that as a group, fans can value defensive skills of individual players pretty well and can also project offensive numbers very well. He's done a lot of work coming up with a way to quantify clutch ABs and he's now giving the fans the chance to identify the players they want up in those high leverage situations. If the fans select an inferior batter over a better one, he's going to conclude that they feel that player is more clutch. Knowing that, he can test to see if that batter had indeed performed better than expected in clutch situations for 2008. You believe in clutch and think some Brewers perform better or worse when the going gets tough? Rank them as such. If you don't, just pick who you think is the best overall hitter. It's up to you. I'm not sure who that is because I dont' have the data in front of me. I hear that the internet has that kind of stuff.
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It's interesting that you ask a question like that, Rluz, since you are a hard core stats guy and out to prove that there is no such thing as clutch. I'm not "out to prove" anything. I don't have some underlying agenda to dismantle the grand ol' game, one regression at a time! I just prefer statistical evidence over conjecture or anecdotal evidence. There have been studies that have found evidence that certain players do have a "clutch" skill. What they found was a pretty small effect so far, however. Tango is a huge fan of the "wisdom of the crowds" theory, though. He has shown that as a group, fans can value defensive skills of individual players pretty well and can also project offensive numbers very well. He's done a lot of work coming up with a way to quantify clutch ABs and he's now giving the fans the chance to identify the players they want up in those high leverage situations. If the fans select an inferior batter over a better one, he's going to conclude that they feel that player is more clutch. Knowing that, he can test to see if that batter had indeed performed better than expected in clutch situations for 2008. You believe in clutch and think some Brewers perform better or worse when the going gets tough? Rank them as such. If you don't, just pick who you think is the best overall hitter. It's up to you. I'm not sure who that is because I dont' have the data in front of me. I hear that the internet has that kind of stuff.
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Give Ryan whatever he wants. You obviously don't mean that in the literal sense so what does that actually mean?
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Did I make this thread in the stats forum? If I did, I didn't mean to. Can this get moved? It's not even close for me. In the 'good problem to have' dept., there are several guys I would not feel bad about having up there, for whatever that's worth. Fill out the survey!
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Did I make this thread in the stats forum? If I did, I didn't mean to. Can this get moved? It's not even close for me. In the 'good problem to have' dept., there are several guys I would not feel bad about having up there, for whatever that's worth. Fill out the survey!
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Did I make this thread in the stats forum? If I did, I didn't mean to. Can this get moved? It's not even close for me. In the 'good problem to have' dept., there are several guys I would not feel bad about having up there, for whatever that's worth. Fill out the survey!
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Did I make this thread in the stats forum? If I did, I didn't mean to. Can this get moved? It's not even close for me. In the 'good problem to have' dept., there are several guys I would not feel bad about having up there, for whatever that's worth. Fill out the survey!
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The Great Clutch Project
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The Great Clutch Project
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The Great Clutch Project
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The Great Clutch Project
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The projections I've seen put the Cubs at around 88 wins for 2008, so it looks like they agree that the Cubs haven't improved much from last year. They are a decent team but nothing special. I'll conceed that they probably have a little mroe talent than the Brewers right now but it's pretty close. It should be a fun season.
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It come across like nobody here wants that guy to succeed. Any true Brewer fan wants every player to succeed. The fact that some fans feel that certain players have a smaller chance of actually doing it doesn't change that fact. I don't want to give any player 100s of AB to prove he can succeed when my best guess is that he won't. It's silly to suggest that it's personal.
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Would Lowering the Mound Prevent Arm Injuries?
rluzinski replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Interesting study. It's generally a given that a pitcher's fastball will be faster off a mound than on flat surface, no? We'd expect some increase in the forces the joints are subjected to, then. Does throwing off a mound simply result in a more inefficient throwing motion? -
Sheets has over 200 IP Fielder has less than 40 HRs Suppan has an ERA over 5
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Or the Brewers could have Hart play CF and Dillon play RF, as I already mentioned. And we already have a defensive replacement with at least some upside (Gwynn).
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Yes, of course, I understand what projections are. A projection doesn't even have to be statistically based, so I can't say that you don't know what one is. With regard to the type of statistical projection I'm talking about, I don't think you really understand them. You are basically saying that evaluating a player during spring training is a better predictor of future performance than simply looking at prior performance. For an established veteran with thousands of major league ABs, that's a difficult position to defend. Heck, should we ignore all of Prince's prior performance and estimate his expected future performance based on a scouting evaluation of his spring training performance? Do you honestly think that would result in a more accurate projection?
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I'm sure Yost gets input but it's going to be Melvin who ultimately decides the starting rotation. And I appreciate that people want to see Villy in the rotation. He's young and has certainly shown some promise. Where I disagree is with the idea that he is such a talent as to make the idea of him not in the rotation to start the season a travesty. I could see him in the majors for many years. I just I don't think he's significantly better than any of the other bottom of the rotation options the Brewers have right now.
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Ned Yost has many characteristics as a manager, but I don't think there's evidence to support the notion that adhering to strict platoon roles is one of them. Ned is too infatuated with the "hot hand" to ever use a strict platoon.
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Staturday: Small sample size This is a must read.
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I'm a little amazed at how projections are used above all else on here. That's what someone is guessing he'll do, and it's pretty lacking because he didn't play last year. I guess I look at the Bill James projections, the Marcel Projection as a pretty loose guess, and not something that should be used to make roster decisions. A projection like Marcel is where we should start when we are trying to make the best educated guess. All it does is look at the performance from the most recent seasons, regresses it to the mean some and adjusts for age. From there, you can add any other information you might know (injury history, possible park effects, whether he was being platooned, etc...) to tweak it. Marcel is just the best "dumb" guess at future performance based on prior performance. I'm not sure who the 'you' is here...Al, or me, or another poster, or Ned Yost and Doug Melvin? I was directing it towards Melvin and anyone else in Brewer management who thought it was a good idea to bring Kapler back from the dead.
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I am still amazed that Melvin signed Kapler, much less is considering him in any kind of starting role. His Marcel projection for 2008: .263 BA .310 OBP .397 SLG .707 OPS Are you telling me that sliding Hart to CF and Dillon in RF against lefties is the inferior alternative? I just don't get it.
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Turnbow looking really good [bad]
rluzinski replied to TuesdaysWithRillo's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
turnbow's problem is confidence. Turnbow's "problem" is what it always has been; a limited skill set. he has nice velocity on his fastball and a lot of movement on his hard slider. What he doesn't have is good control and he probably never will. As a third or forth option in someone's bullpen, he's fine, IMO. His fluke year in 2005 (88% LOB%!??) simply gave fans unrealistic expectations for his future performance. He was never a sub 3.00 ERA pitcher, much less a sub 2.00 one. -
Yes, I know. I was just saying how I understand his argument and what he meant by his post, but I'm not so sure I agree that Counsell and Weeks situation is the result of a small sample size. How else would you explain Counsell having an OPS over 1.200? That sample in no way represents Counsell's true skill level. You have to basically divide it by 2. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif