rluzinski

Lets be honest if the Brewers are for real they should sweep a team as awful as the Giants. Even if we assume that the Brewers are a true 92 win team and the Giants are a true 50 win team (which is probably worse than any team can be projected to be), you should expect the Brewers to sweep them only around half the time. I agree that a good 6 games isn't cause to all wild with expectations, though.

I don't completely dismiss that a good catcher helps the performance of his pitcher. I just don't think the effect can be nearly as dramatic as some seem to think. If it was dramatic, it could be easily quantified, afterall. The fact that it can't be (or hasn't yet, at least as far as I know) suggests that if there is an effect, it's probably subtle (subtle does not necessarily insignificant). But to insist that the effect is both obvious and significant is hard for me to understand. I read the first part of this thread. I want to hear from the people who hated the Kendall signing. Yeah, we're six games in. No, I'm not starting a fight. The question here is simple: have opinions changed? And if not, what do you still dislike about your catcher, and who would be a good replacement (reasonable offers only)? First of all, any analysis of the aquisition should pretty much ignore what Kendall has done in the first 6 games. He has undeniably looked great offensively so far but that doesn't mean much or anything yet. Ask me again in July. I didn't like the signing because it was a 2 year deal to a 33 year old catcher who had hit very poorly overall the year before. I was also concerned about whether Kendall's arm would be a liability. Was there a better option? I don't know. Nothing obvious, which is why I haven't lost any sleep over the aquisition.

As in, the catcher calling for a ball out of the zone? I suppose, although, in the end, the pitcher has the final word on what and where he throws. I'm sure a good catcher can help a pitcher. I just don't think it's nearly as dramatic as some suggest. You'd see significantly different K and walk rates, depending on who was catching, if it did. You don't. I watched Sheets shake off more than a few of Kendalls's calls today. Kendall may have given him some nice suggestions but it was Sheets who had the final vote.

I think the Brewers should be expected to finish a sweep a little over 50% of the time. A sweep feels really good to get but there's nothing significant about it otherwise. I'll take a 3 game winning streak anytime http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

It's not like a catcher ever calls a pitcher to "nibble". They either hit their spots or they don't, right?

If he was cheating, wouldn't it probably be only on one or two fingers (not his thumb)?

Nice solution. I just don't usually bother because it requires an extra column.

Short of a major injury, I don't know what you can see in 6 games that should change your opinion of any team.

I'm not sure if Sheets missing so much time the last few years is a good or bad thing. While it makes you more worried about his future health, he also hasn't logged a lot of hours on the arm. Either way, it's a huge risk to sign any 29 year old starting pitcher to a long term deal and if Sheets stays healthy, that's what he's going to get. Four years min, probably five. Unless he's willing to give an extreme home discount, it's time to move on.

I much prefer natural grass but it's a constant struggle to keep the grass at Miller park looking half way decent. The stuff just doesn't grow well in there.

the brewers ticket office has continually shown that they have no real interest in how long you have been a fan. money talks in their minds...not loyalty. I understand you are still bitter that the Brewers alotted more opening day tickets to prospective season ticket holders this year but what does the situation being described in this thread have anything to do with money? As the orginal poster pointed out, you wouldn't think that that him getting bumped would even be possible if you get your picks in early and there wasn't an explosion of full season ticket packages being sold. Do the Brewers just process season ticket requests as they come it, without considering how long that person has been a season ticket holder? It doesn't seem so.

Well, if people just want a snapshot of the season standings, ol' Haudricourt is happy to deliver in the JS power rankings published today. Well, kind of. We have the 3-2 Royals at the top in the AL. They did sweep the Tigers to start the season, so Tom must be willing to forgive them for losing the next 2. The Tigers are 0-5 so they are the worst team, obviously. Oakland is ranked 14th, despite being 3-3. But they started off 1-3, though, so there you go. Did Oakland's game yesterday end after Tom's bedtime? In the NL, the 4-1 Brewers are only behind the 3-2 Dogers. The Dodgers got a lot of preseason hype, so I guess that was enough for even Tom to notice them. Then again, the 2-3 Braves were probably just as hyped but that doesn't stop them from being ranked 15th. Clear as mud.

According pitch P/X, Zito's fastball averaged about 85 MPH during his first start this season. He never even broke 86.

Did the rankings change from a week ago? As NTChez points out, the results of the first week should have no effect on these rankings.

I thought it was odd when a girl grabbed a guy's blue, fuzzy wig off his head, threw it onto the warning track and didn't get booted.

What the HELL is Dusty doing?

I like it cool and would have loved to see the roof open. I'm not going to have a fit about it though, since I know many would have been cold.

Football likely will never have a sabermetrics following like we see in baseball for one simple reason, football is to much of a team game compared to baseball. I agree that baseball is simpler to model but I'm sure that football is very heavily studied. I've seen some work online and I bet much of it is proprietary.

I wasn't talking about the Brewers' current situation. I'm just trying to answer, "Does Gwynn project to be a viable starting CF in the major leagues?" My answer is no; others say yes. The earth continues to turn.

Bush was never projected to be a 3.0 ERA pitcher by anyone. How many true 3.0 ERA starting pitchers do you think there even are? I would say zero: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pkimQBCeCjbh9Naiaqg60TA I thought Bush could be a low 4 ERA pitcher. I'm not so sure anymore. I still think he's still a decent #4 or #5 but that's about it. If the Brewer end up with 5 better options to start than him, he'll be a fine long relief guy this year.

Baserunning has value but when compared to the ability to get on base and hit for power... not so much. I don't say that because I'm a hater, I say it because it's been studied. I've said this before but I WISH that players like Gwynn (on the offensive side) had more value. It's a fun brand of baseball to watch. But because of the power hitters in modern baseball, his kind of offensive value gets left in the dust. I think it should be obvious that a HR equals a whole lot of SBs and extra bases advanced on a single. I think Gwynn has the potential to have a lot of value on the defensive side of things. I'm just not convinced that it's enough to justify starting him if he can't hit well enough. If he was a SS, it would be completely different.

rlunziski, I believe you are incorrect about making up the projection gap. I noticed this last year and it makes more sense when you think about it. If you figure out the expected wins for the Brewers in this series given each teams projected records and the home field to the Cubs it at worst for the Crew would work out to only say 1.3 wins. Which means that if they lost today they'd only gain 0.7 wins over projections. And if they sweep it still only 1.7 wins and I think the closest I saw them was 2 games. If you also calculate how much ground the Cubs have lost I think it works out then only if we sweep. Depending on the projections you use, the Brewers probably haven't completely made it up yet but a sweep will put them ahead. As you pointed out, it's not just the Brewers beating their projection but also the Cubs not meeting theirs. According to some of the more popular projection systems, the Cubs were expected to finish the season with a 3.2 game lead over the 2nd place Brewers in the NL Central: http://rluzinski.blogspot.com/2008/03/brewers-chances-of-winning-central.html With the Cubs being the home team and being the statistically stronger one (if only very slightly), they have something like a 56% chance of winning each game (yes, I'm ignoring pitching matchups). After two games, here's the projected standings for the two teams: Cubs: 1.12 - .88 (.24 game lead) Brewers: .88 - 1.12 The Cubs have an expected lead of .24 but are actually behind the Brewers by 2 games. They are currently 2.24 games behind their projected lead. After 3 games, the projections have the Cubs and the Brewers record as: Cubs: 1.68 - 1.32 (.36 game lead) Brewers: 1.32 - 1.68 If the Cubs lose today and get swept, they'll be 3.36 games behind their projection and the Brewers will be the NL Central favorites. A Cubs win today puts them 1.24 games behind their projection and still the favorites.

How many of the things the FO says do you think is just for that purpose? I really don't know. Melvin has always been very disceptive when discussing things in public, so I wouldn't put it past him to fudge other things. I always question how much Mark A. is also influencing roster moves. If Mark A. just LOVED Suppan, Melvin is probably going to have to publically "love" him as well. In the end, it's just blind speculation on my part, however.

I guess you can take this a few different ways but the way I took it is they are offering 10+ per year. All that means is that they were offered a total contract in the tens of millions, which was a given anyway.

I wouldn't say he's wrong but James is being a bit more dramatic than he needs to be. You'll never be able to model the game of baseball (or any sport played by people) perfectly of course but with each passing year they seem to be doing a better job at it. This is not quantum physics we are talking about. The more things are studied, the more they are understood and the less breakthroughs that will be found. Diminishing returns. I don't see football fans being threatened by people trying to figure out the nuances of football through statistical studies. It's odd to me that the average baseball fan is so protective of their sport. Really, would the game be any fun we ever "figured it out." All the fun is in the unknown. Most of the things studied works best in the macro view anyway (value of a player over a season and the like). If you are talking about a single AB, even if you know the batter has a 35% of succeeding or whatever, we all know that anything can happen. Hell, Kendall almost had a HR yesterday! There's plenty enough of randomness and human element in the game to keep everyone guessing.