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rluzinski

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Everything posted by rluzinski

  1. rluzinski
    Wow, Branyan lasted 2 seconds. That's OK, I'm sure we can count on Magruder!
  2. rluzinski
    Well, another crappy pitcher lowers his ERA against the Crew.
  3. rluzinski
    Apparently, all we had to do was bat Weeks 1st and he would start hitting bombs all over that place. Duh. EDIT: Did Hall just.... walk?
  4. rluzinski
    Wow, that didn't take long. Nice job Lehr. Why is he on the team? Why is: Durrington Magruder Lehr Helling ... on the team, for that matter?
  5. rluzinski
    Cap get's into some trouble so it's time for Lehr? I'm sure this turns out great... Yost is a genius.
  6. rluzinski
    All I do is write something in notebook and paste it between the code tags. Didn't have to change fonts or anything.
  7. rluzinski
    [b] Rluz's Prediction[/b] ------------------- Brewers Sweep 29% Brewers Win 2 44% Brewers Win 1 23% Brewers Swept 4%
  8. rluzinski
    And according to linear weights, what is a stolen base worth? Below is a spreedsheet I posted awhile back, trying to compare the different types of run predicting equations. Batting runs uses linear weights. http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a345/rluzinski/linsb.gif Player B is Scotty Poish type player. The real Pods has decided to get caught stealing a bunch lately and has been in a hitting slump. Currently 54 stolen bases with 18 steals. Add that to a .684 OPS and he's been miserable for a corner outfielder. But yeh, somehow the media has still been insisting that the trade was good for both teams. Sureeeee.
  9. rluzinski
    I'm not sure why it has to be worth twice as much as two doubles as per rluz quote? Well that's the same as saying a HR is worth a double, which makes no sense at all http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif What I was TRYING to say is two doubles is actually worth MORE than a single HR. LINK Also, a walk, according to linear weights, is worth about 2/3rds of a single, NOT 1/2 a single, as OPS values it, roughly.
  10. rluzinski
    I am sure the Majors are littered with guys like that. Roided up monsters that pitchers would rather walk than to have them deposit every ball into he seats? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  11. rluzinski
    As usual, one example doesn't prove anything. I haven't even read a study about this subject, but I can GUARANTEE you they didn't claim that no one ever could EVER improve their walk rate. It's a generality; most players exhibit the skill of walking early in their career. Most players don't dramatically improve upon that ability. Again, I've never seen a study on this topic, so I don't even know how strong this "skill" is or how hard it is for a player to improve it. All I know is no one said that it's impossible to find a single example where it didn't hold true.
  12. rluzinski
    Have I missed something significant or do we ignore D and pitching because it isn't provable? There has been alot of work done on pitching and defense lately and alot more to BE done. The biggest problem is trying to seperate defense and pitching. DIPS tries to do that and succeeds... sorta http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  13. rluzinski
    No having a plan at the plate? No knowing where to throw the ball if it is hit to you? No knowing how to slide at home with a play at the plate? No knowing where you need to hit the ball to move runners over? Nothing like that? And those things have no effect on the game? I was talking more about mental toughness / good effort / chemestry / knowing how to win stuff. Hey, I said it makes up 5% of the game!
  14. rluzinski
    and be tough, once someone figures out just exactly what that is. I think the Brewers have been mentally tough in about 48.7% of their games so far, well below the "toughness rate" of the Cardinals, 64%. Talent doesn't figure into these numbers, it's all about toughness. O so true. All the intengibles are tangible, insofar as they are 100% coorelated with winning. Just for once can someone show me a mentally tough team, that tries really hard and has great chemestry but doesn't have the physical tools to win many games? Good luck.
  15. rluzinski
    How that OBP is derived and how that SLG is derived makes a difference in how productive that player is. You are correct, a HR ISN'T twice as good as two doubles, nor is a single twice as good as a walk. OPS doesn't reflect that. Something like linear weights would show you that. If someone is intent on using OBP and SLG to descrive the offensive worth of a player, however, they should weight OBP more.
  16. rluzinski
    Stats are a guideline If by guideline you mean "describes about 95% of the game" than I agree http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif OBP and SLG doesn't take into acount a million other variables like, steals, grittiness, leadership, but still gets darn close in predicting runs scored. Pretty compelling to me. Everyone wants to romanticize sports, it makes it alot more interesting afterall. baseball isn't an emotional sport , however. Trying harder doesn't make a pitcher throw more acurately nor does it allow a batter to hit a fast ball easier. It's not a sport, like football, where a player needs to constently battle exhaustion either. Pretty much throw the ball, catch the ball, hit the ball.
  17. rluzinski
    think it's important to be careful with what you mean here...I wouldn't say that OBP is 1.6 times more important than SLG...rather I'd say: In the current environment, an increase in OBP of one point has the same effect on a team's runs scored as an increase in SLG of 1.6 points. I clarified that exact point about 10 times in this thread http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. rluzinski
    Isn't it interesting rluzinski, that a walk and a stolen base nearly add up to the equivalent value of a single, using linear weights? Even though the guy is in scoring position, it still has near the same value...I'm baffled to a point. It makes complete sense. While a walk and a stolen base get's a guy to 2B, a single has the added benefit of moving runners along. A walk can only do that if a runner is at 1b when the walk occurs. Again, every event in baseball can be given an "average" value, with the values broken up as: 1. The value of NOT making an out 2. The value of getting on base. 3. The value of moving runners (and hopefully scoring them). Just goes to show you that numbers don't tell you everything. There isn't one single hitting stat out there in baseball that tells you everything. First, I can't see how thumperden not seeing a benefit of a single over a walk "goes to show" anything. Second, no one ever said linear weights tells you everything. Mathematical models are limited by nature. Last, do you actually know ANYTHING about linear weights? I bet I know the answer.
  19. rluzinski
    What is "makeup" anyway? The first step in converting the masses would be actually defining what it is and what it gives you.
  20. rluzinski
    The bullpen is fine for a bad team, is that it? A .500 team is a "bad" team? Isn't it average by definition?
  21. rluzinski
    Regardless of who's on base when you come up to bat some guys have the ability to hit with runners in scoring positon and some can't. Could you please point out the guys you think have the ability and don't? Also, a walk is worth about 2/3rds of a base hit using linear weights. Sounds about right to me. You don't make an out and get on base, but you don't move any runners over.
  22. rluzinski
    Remember, the question isn't what's the least important stat, but the most overrated. Since most people don't even know what SLG is, they picked it. My order of most overated from their list: 1. RBI 2. BA 3. HR America is, I'll bet a lot of those same people would vote OPS the most important stat, without realizing the contradiction. Most people don't know what OPS is either. It would have been #1 if it had been on the list.
  23. rluzinski
    Found a nice article giving a nice overview on the quest to gauge the relative important of OBP and SLG: LINK They all seem to put OBP and SLG's importance, relatively, between 1.7 and 2.0, in favor of OBP.
  24. rluzinski
    I don't think that anyone is saying that Yost single handedly lost the game. Zero runs in the 7th against Suppan? COME ON.
  25. rluzinski
    And be honest: Who really likes the Crew's bullpen vs. the Cards with a lead, much less in a tie game? I like those chances alot more than being behind 1-0 in the 8th, even with Cy Young pitching for me.
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