TheCrew07

Why do people keep posting that MA, or any owner are spending money out of their own pocket when that's not the case? I realize that used to happen, I remember the Twins ownership complaining about it when I was living in the cities, but I highly doubt that's the case. The whole notion of "deep pockets" is misplaced, it's the market that generates the revenue, not the owner.

Escobar has been playing professional baseball since his teens, he's already logged 5 full years (1 short season and 4 full season) and 2141 ABs... Weeks had 1 full year of short season/A ball, 1 year at AA, a couple of months at AAA and now has a total of 771 minor league ABs. Escobar and Weeks are in no way comparable, and Escobar continues to get better every year. Not that Rickie isn't/won't, but Escobar is more polished than people give him credit for. He's had plenty of time to grow at his own pace as he's just finishing up a second tour of AA during his 5th pro season, Weeks was pushed and I still believe calling him up when they did was unnecessary. Will AAA hurt Escobar? Not one bit, but he's nearing the end of the development cycle in the minors, and he did spend more than a year in AA (only getting better), so I have no doubt he could make the jump if a good deal came around for Hardy or Weeks

I'm bored and was bouncing around just looking at random splits tonight and I stumbled across this for Mat Gamel. If that link brings up the Overall stats just click the Left/Right link to get his splits. I had no idea he hit LHP so well, even in his down years there's only a .030 point difference for his MiLB career he's actually hit LHP better. I'd guess that will change when he gets to Milwaukee and faces specialists, but it's good to see. As I was curious about it I also looked up Taylor Green who also hit LHP better and Michael Brantley who was very close but came up short, but is still over .300 for his MiLB career. edit. For all links you have to click on Career Stats, then the splits.

It's not as if Weeks just booted 1 double play, I can think of 5 misplays around the bases just off the top of my head which leads me believe there was more like 8-9, and most of those don't show up in error totals. There is no way he's playing average defense when he's so spotty making the turn. I know defensive metrics are a work in progress, but in this case I'm going to trust what I see watching the games rather than what a metric tells me. I'm not sure how anyone can adequately rate defense without seeing the play, there's way too much going on to look at ball location on a chart to determine if the play should have been made. He's made improvement to be sure, but "Average" is a stretch in my opinion. There's reason to be optimistic about Weeks, he always flashes just enough brilliance to keep others and myself hoping that next year will be the year. I'm on the fence about him, he's made improvement in his game, just not offensively. His last 4 season by OPS+... 2008 93 2007 108 2006 96 2005 90 So I'd agree that his offense is around average, but the only number in his line that's trending positively is a reduction in SOs. I don't see anything that suggests to me he's ready to breakout other than an outstanding last month of the season. With Hardy we could see his entire approach at the plate mature through his first year, we could see the light go on. I haven't seen anything like that yet from Rickie, I see reason for hope, but I wonder if Rickie will ever be more than a tease. I'm interested in people's opinion of him, coming into the season many people said this was Weeks make or break season, now some of those same people think he should get one more year, when he's essentially the same player he's always been. I'll watch with this unfold with morbid curiosity, as I've been looking to replace him with Green for a long time, so I'm somewhat detached from Rickie's success or failure. Whatever happens he's not a bust, he made it to the show, and he's been serviceable, which more than many 1st round picks from that draft can say. I'll always wonder if rushing him had a negative impact on his career, or at least the early part of his career.

If he's extended this will typical Melvin, overpaying for the bullpen... my one complaint against him.

In my opinion the issue isn't if Fielder will be dealt, it's when. He's destined to be a DH, he's a Boras client, and he's not going to take any sort of home town discount or he would have taken the offer this spring. Talking about a loss of production after he's gone is a given regardless, it shouldn't factor into the equation. Al you're figuring runs created which is fine, but you also have to figure in how many runs his defense cost the team. Not only that, but in my opinion his shoddy defense cost a full season of Yo, which may also have a negative impact next season if he isn't able to throw enough pitches to get 200 innings, how many runs was/will that be worth in the end? If Yo doesn't get hurt, maybe they use the same prospects for a different deal this off-season, what would that have been worth? In addition if we're discussing trading Fielder for pitching, it's relevant to discuss how many runs a quality starting pitcher like Shields/Santana would save vs the alternative, and also the financial ramifications of having a cheap talented young pitcher vs a Suppan type for another 15 million. Unless I missed it no one is discussing trading Prince for another 1B, so it's not as simple as runs created. Whenever Fielder goes, I would like the best possible return, that's all I ask. Whomever is replacing him doesn't have to be an all-star, he just has to be average and good with the glove. LH, RH doesn't mean much to me... just a solid player who's a solid defender and competent receiver at 1B. So maybe the net result of losing Fielder is 1-3 less wins in 2009, I'm not sure how to equate everything other than to make an educated guess. If the offense plays to expectations across the board and the young kids continue to improve we might break even 2009, the big dividend will come in 2010 and 2011 as Gamel vs current 3b/Hart, Escobar vs Weeks, Salome/Lucroy vs Kendell, Jeffress vs Suppan, and so on. There is a ton of hitting of talent that will start next year in AAA and AA, so I don't see the need to do anything drastic with the hitters, the offense will improve over time as the cream rises to the top, the team will have plenty of options. It's definitely possible to make up that 40 run difference a little bit at time with improvements in the rotation and replacement of failing parts of the offense. Who's to say that Hall and Weeks don't suddenly break out again? Just those 2 guys could cover Prince if they played to their talent level. The one place there aren't any in house options in the near future is the rotation, which I'd rather not address through FA. My point is simply this, the team might take a small step back in 2009 by trading Fielder who's leaving anyway at some point, but it will be 2 steps ahead by 2011 and maybe as soon as 2010. Taking comp picks for him down the road doesn't address any of the most the glaring holes in the team, and certainly doesn't help the team before Yo and Braun are gone. I'd much rather sign Teixeira for $15/per than sign a Lowe type FA pitcher for $15/per, there's much more value and less risk in signing a position player. I don't really care about losing the draft pick at the end of the first round since we're picking up 2 in the same range and 2 sandwich picks.

I don't like this deal at all, if Fielder is being moved, it better be for a stud starting pitcher. Baltimore has no one in their starting rotation that I'd be interested in. I like some of their minor league pitchers, but it would take 2 of them to get Prince from me if I was the GM.

Gamel - 2010 regardless of position, my hunch is that he'll start at 3B which is why I don't see Hardy sliding over or a major move made for the team this off season Salome - 2010 they need his bat, if his defense fails him Lucroy slides in here Escobar - Assuming that Hardy isn't moved, he'll be up for good in some capacity mid 2009, he's going to hit, he's won me over Green - The only thing holding him back is Gamel, 2010 for him, maybe mid season instead of spring training. I still hope he's Weeks replacement, yes X I know he doesn't have fantastic range. If Gamel fails at 3B Green would do nicely there, 2011 would be a worse case scenario I would think Gillespie - Backup 4 OF type, 2010 or 2011 depending how the bottom of the roster shakes out. Again his lack of arm strength hurts him limiting him to LF (I am correct about the arm strength yes?), Gamel would be a better all around player if moved to the OF, he's not better than Braun, doesn't really fit in center... I see him as depth. Cain - His tools are pretty exciting, and he's still rawish... if he takes off next year at AA with the bat he'd get a mid season bump to AAA (like this year), then it's plausible the Brewers would go right from Cameron to Cain in 2010. Either way 2011 would be a worse case scenario I think for him as well. Jeffress - I would hope 2010 for him, if he can iron out his command and master his breaking stuff he could be dominant with his tools, but like Al said, he might never pitch a day in the majors. If he doesn't cut it as a starter, he will be in the back of the bullpen. Lucroy - either he or Salome will be catching, if it's Salome I wouldn't mind Lucroy getting corner OF/IF time, or he could be moved for pitching. They wouldn't waste him as a reserve, they won't have 2 catchers on the roster that are starting caliber and PH 1 for 140 games. If both catchers make it, Lucroy will be moved to fill a hole elsewhere on the team or moved in a trade as catching is very valuable.

I haven't seen anyone say Mark A is meddling as a fact, we've just guessed that it may be the case based on some Melvin's comments.

The Rays just acquired Garza from the Twins last off season, I like the idea of a 3 way deal, but I don't think he'd be the one to go. Teams don't usually flip the same guy, but it could happen. I would think Blackburn + would be the lower end of the scale for JJ, he's an all-star and up near the top in every single statistical category for SS, not just in the NL, but league wide. I know people get caught up in his lost step and all that other nonsense but he's very good player and he's still cheap. A good offensive SS with very solid D...there just aren't many of them around, and if Escobar wasn't knocking on the door JJ would be untouchable in my opinion.

It's not just Fielders poor defense, but his poor receiving skills. Hardy has a very accurate arm, the rest of the IF not so much, if you get a competent receiver at 1B you can upgrade the entire infield defense with one move. I think it was X who originally proposed trading Fielder and signing Teixeira... that's a move I can really get behind, it allows me to stay with my original plan of trading Fielder to the Rays for Shields... that silly acquiring Sabathia before the deadline deal stole my off season thunder! I think my thoughts on this are well known, we should be looking to acquire good, young pitching as the system continues to produce bats and our best pitching prospects just got their first taste of AA. It doesn't really matter to me who gets dealt, if the opportunity to snag a Volquez type (young guy on the rise) or a Santana/Shields type should arise, I would hope the Brewers pull the trigger on a deal. I've detailed at great length my opinion of the shortcomings of the FA pitching market so I'll just say that I'm firmly against signing any FA pitcher who will cost 12+/per, take a commitment of 4 years to land, while his skills are declining, and be a marginal upgrade over McClung (for example). Simply put, I think the FA pitching market stinks, acquiring young pitchers allows the Brewers to get the most bang for their buck. I've also used the example many times of Suppan's relative value... being the highest paid player on the team but having true talent in the lower half of the 25 man roster talent pool. I just don't see that as money well spent, and I fear that Mark A. will push Melvin for a "name" and we'll end up with another Suppanesque deal and pitcher... I don't need an ace like Sabathia, Lincecum, whomever... but I definitely don't want to be to commited to 2 aging pitchers with market value contracts (albatross).... I'd happily settle for an entire rotation of Parra's and slightly better... Yo is a 1/2 type pitcher, Parra is a 2/3 top end, give me a bunch of 2's and 3's and I'm happy camper.

that made me laugh out loud, that is all.

who says they'll ever be in the same outfield together? Again, Sizemore is good enough he can play anywhere if it came to that.

actually, it's been reported on multiple occasions that the Brewers lost money this season.

I really don't get why you'd pitch Sabathia on 3 days rest and not Yo, given that Yo hasn't hardly pitched all season. They obviously needed this game, I wanted our 2 best pitchers in games 4 and 5... and he trotted out Soup. This is going to sound really poor, but everytime I simulated 2007-2010 in OOTP Suppan was by far the worst pitcher on the staff (10-15 times as I was playing around learning the game). I'm unsure what system they are using for projections, but he was so bad that by 2009 he was in the bullpen in long relief to start the year, and every year I got so pissed at him I cut him around the trade deadline and dealt with his albatross contract in 2010. I know it's just a video game, and a simulation, but how quickly he declined to being absolutely worthless is always in the back of my mind and I have a hard time getting past it, he was just so bad. Parra looked good today as well, I would have liked to see a Gallardo/Parra combo for this game since they used Villy yesterday. As I type this Mota gives up another jack... *sigh* I'm not willing to give in just yet, we still have the meat of the order coming around 1 more time. If this is it though, I'm alright with the season, and I'm looking forward to the off-season, it should be very eventful.

As much as I dislike the Cubs, I have a hard time piling on, it just doesn't feel right to me.

Minnesota and Oakland? I'm not concerned with what other teams do or do not do, I'm concerned with building the best team possible. The Brewers have finally arrived in the post season, but they aren't a finished product, and next year they'll have plenty of holes to fill. Teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and so on have FA's signed to long contracts (that are tough to move) in addition to their home grown prospects. It's been used literally 1000s of times on this site, but following Minnesota and Oakland's approach to maintaining their franchise seems like a very good model for the Brewers to follow.

I didn't dismiss the idea at all, I explained my position at great length. To simplify... I believe pitching is always the top priority, the Rays are an excellent example of this concept. I'm fine with JJ at 3B or 2B if the Brewers aren't able to make deal for pitching or if that deal doesn't include Hardy. However if a team covets Hardy and is willing to give us a top of the rotation pitcher, I would hope the Brewers would take that deal every single time.

Exactly my point.... So why wouldn't Sizemore move to a corner spot and they try to maximize Brantley's value in center? They have a vested interest in Brantley's success... from a Cleveland perspective LaPorta and Brantley have to pan out or the Sabathia deal was an absolute bust for them. My hunch is that Brantley will be averagish defensively in CF for Cleveland and pointing to where he played with the Brewers isn't really a valid/fair comparison is his case, as he always played with true CF prospects until this year. Unfortunately for him, getting him ABs didn't coincide with defensive development. This is my single biggest issue with the Brewer farm system to this point, players haven't been playing in the proper positions, or making the necessary defensive improvements as they progress. I sincerely hope that the organization learned it's lesson with Weeks, Braun, and Fielder. However outside of Gamel's progress this season, it doesn't appear to me anyone else is making significant defensive improvement year to year. It will be nice with the team in Appleton next year, as we'll be able to see if those kids are making significant improvement as the season progresses. As fans, defensively we've always been in the dark, as E totals don't tell the majority of the story, and it's rarely a topic covered by the local media in each city.

Again I say that pitching is the priority, it's much more wise to work the rotation on down, than from position players on down. See the Rays, who acquired their top 2 young starters in trades and still had Neimann in the Minors and drafted Price who's as sure a thing as Prior was, lets hope he stays healthy unlike Prior. The point is the Brewers are currently very good at getting bats to MLB, but have stunk in the pitching dept thus far producing only Villy (acquired via trade), Parra, and Gallardo to go with this current crop of hitters. That's 2 starters and 1 Bullpen arm in addition to Sheets... In my opinion the Brewers should deal from a position of strength to fill a greater position of need and in my opinion quality, young starters are the greatest need going forward. Again while the offense definitely has holes the larger issue is what happens with the rotation when Sheets and Sabathia are gone. I don't know what deals will be available, if any this off season, and who it will take from the Brewers to get it done. However I feel very strongly about the Brewers jumping on that deal, whenever it presents itself. For example where would the Rays be without Garza and Kazmir? How good will Cinci's rotation be next year as Cueto continues to improve... what if Bailey finally puts it all together? If the Brewers want to compete in the central year in and year out the best way to ensure that in my opinion is to have the best rotation. If the Brewers are serious about contending year in and year out they need the pitching to do so, then hitting and defense. If they play any defense at all in game 1 this series might be 2 to 1 Milwaukee right now regardless of the offense. As far as Hardy vs Escobar, as Hardy is a proven MLB player he has much more value than Escobar, so if you're trading one for pitching, it makes sense to move JJ as he could likely be enough to acquire an unproven younger pitcher on his own, maybe even a proven pitcher. If Fielder is truly equal value to a Shields, I'd much rather move 1 player, than move multiple players which creates multiple holes. Again I think it makes more sense for the Brewers to be sellers (MLB players for prospects) than to be buyers. Realistically when you're buying with prospects you can only make 1 or 2 deals before the depth is gone for good, so they have to be prudent about making the correct trades. Post Sabathia, I don't see the Brewers having the amunition available to make another prospect deal for starting pitching, who out there would be worth the money as upgrade over Villy/McClung as FA signing and worth a 4 year commitment? My whole value theory aside, I think it's much easier to fill position player holes in FA (Cameron) than it is to fill holes in the rotation or the bullpen.

I'd rather Suppan wasn't pitching this game, I'm usually pretty optimistic, but he literally gives me an impending sense of doom.

Sizemore hits well enough to be a corner OF... I don't see how Brantley would move from CF, more they slide over Sizemore in the last year of his deal, it wouldn't hurt his value as he approaches FA, and if he resigns then it still makes more sense for Cleveland if Brantley is in CF and Sizemore is in a corner spot.

Gillespie is solid yet unspectacular, he reminds me quite a bit of Gabe Gross without the arm. I really don't see him starting in the outfield, but I think he could be a very solid bench guy. A good case can be made that he's one of the organizations 5 best hitters in the minors (with LaPorta and Brantley gone), but the outfield is clogged in front of him, and get's more so in the worst case scenario that Gamel ends up out there as well. IIRC his arm is pretty poor (surgery?), defensively he really only fits in LF, and while Braun could play RF, Hart would have to be moved... Gamel stick at 3rd, Lucroy stay at catcher (with or without Salome), etc, etc, etc... To me Gillespie is simply fantastic depth.

In my opinion this was the best possible outcome, I feared Green would be the guy picked since this deal was first mentioned. Green is versatile and very similar player to Brantley with better defense/power and less speed. I believe the Brewers may have preferred Brantley because he also fills a need, but as I've said many time the emergence of Cain again this year made Bramtley somewhat expendable, as Cain is a true 5 tool talent. If Lo plays well early next year in AA I hope they bump him up to AAA and fast track him a bit. Cain could be the opening the day starter in CF in 2010. On the flip side short of a trade this means the Brewers will pick up Cameron's option for 2009.

If they adequately fill the hole left by Fielder it's all good, say by signing Teixeira for example. I'm not worried about the LH/RH thing at this time, I just want people on base somewhat consistently.