TheCrew07

Why does spending money on a FA pitcher have to be the answer? Why is a trade for a starting pitcher out of the question? We aren't talking about the Sheets of 2004, we're talking about the Sheets of 2008, a very solid yet often injured pitcher. There are a couple of teams with quality surplus arm in need of hitting that may be motivated to make a deal. I don't see why it all has to to start and end with Sheets if Sabathia is gone. Melvin is a smart man, it's silly to think that he knew the Brewers had maybe a 5% chance at resigning Sabathia but still structured his plan around that acquisition. Simply put Sheets was let go knowing that they would also be without the services of Sabathia, so it seems to me that Melvin has a different idea in mind. What would really stink about of this is if the Yankees sign Sheets or Teixeira and we miss out on 1rst round compensation for either of our type A free agents.

FA contracts always seem to come down to years, which the Brewers simply cannot do. Many of us were thinking 7 years years 150 Million while we beat this issue to death since he was acquired. If the report is true, good for CC and this just proves that the Brewers never realistically had a shot. Any contract a small market team can offer a large market team can comeback and simply toss another year for the same money onto the table. Baseball isn't a level playing field, if it was then CC would have never been available in the first place because Cleveland would have had the resources to resign him. It stinks I suppose, but if true this development should not have been unexpected, and in the end this works out better for the Brewers as they cannot afford to commit over 25% of their payroll to any single player.

Umm, his offense didn't nose dive, it actually improved... what are you basing this on? He's had one statistically below average season in his career, and he's made drastic improvement the last 2 season. His BABIP may well regress, but his overall offensive game continues to improve. Year Age Tm Lg Lvl Aff G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS SB% SH SF IBB HBP GDP +----+----+---+---+---+---+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+ 2004 17 HEL PIO Rk MIL 67 231 38 65 8 0 2 24 20 44 .281 .339 .342 .681 20 9 69% 2005 18 WVA SAL A MIL 127 520 80 141 25 8 2 36 20 90 .271 .305 .362 .667 30 13 70% 11 4 0 7 4 2006 19 BRE FSL A+ MIL 87 350 47 90 9 1 2 33 19 56 .257 .296 .306 .602 28 8 78% 7 7 1 3 4 2007 20 TOT 125 494 64 151 13 7 1 53 18 71 .306 .331 .366 .697 22 13 63% 8 5 4 3 10 BRE FSL A+ MIL 63 268 37 87 8 3 0 25 7 35 .325 .345 .377 .722 18 10 64% 2 3 0 3 4 HVL SOU AA MIL 62 226 27 64 5 4 1 28 11 36 .283 .314 .354 .668 4 3 57% 6 2 4 0 6 2008 21 HVL SOU AA MIL 131 546 95 179 24 5 8 76 31 82 .328 .363 .434 .797 34 8 81% 10 7 0 3 10 +----+----+---+---+---+---+----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+ 1 Season Rk 67 231 38 65 8 0 2 24 20 44 .281 .339 .342 .681 20 9 69% 1 Season A 127 520 80 141 25 8 2 36 20 90 .271 .305 .362 .667 30 13 70% 11 4 0 7 4 2 Seasons A+ 150 618 84 177 17 4 2 58 26 91 .286 .317 .337 .654 46 18 72% 9 10 1 6 8 2 Seasons AA 193 772 122 243 29 9 9 104 42 118 .315 .349 .411 .760 38 11 78% 16 9 4 3 16 +-----------------+---+--------+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+ 5 Seasons 537 2141 324 626 79 21 15 222 108 343 .292 .328 .370 .698 134 51 72% 36 23 5 16 28 +-----------------+------------+-----+----+----+---+---+---+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+ [/pre] In 2008 he struck out a little bit more than I would have liked but he also walked more, his OPS is trending upwards with his power. The evidence above tells me that he's improving, that he's trending upwards. I can see where someone would look at this average, k rate, and walk rate, make the statistical argument about BABIP, and pigeon hole him as a slick fielding weak stick. I don't believe that's who he is based on the other information that's made available during the season. I think that Escobar being untouchable when Sabathia was acquired speak volumes about how the organization feels about his upside. I get the statisical argument, but that's a rather narrow view in my opinion, especially when were talking about top prospects. There isn't a projection system out there that can predict a break out year because they are all based on historical data. This is why I prefer to also include the professional opinions and observations (scouting) that gets reported during the season when I form my opinion. This is a kid with great work ethic that never focused on his offensive game until he signed with the Brewers, he wasn't a polished hitter by any stretch when he was signed. I've always been most concerned about his power, with that aspect coming around and the glowing reports he gets from coaches, management, and scouts outside of the organization I'm as pumped about Escobar as I was for Braun, and he's potentially replacing my favorite Brewer. I'll think he'll be no worse than league average for a MI with the bat, with the potential to be an above average player best case scenario. He's not a super star with the bat, but he's not the player you paint him to be either. I recall that you said Salome would have washed out already (before the season) if he wasn't a catcher because he didn't hit well enough. How do you feel about him now? Which minor leaguers in the system do you like?

Maybe this year's metrics which I haven't reviewed, but that hasn't been the case in the past. I have a very hard time accepting your logic that Escobar will regress as a player when he's gotten better every year against better competition. You're assuming that his stats will flatten out as he moves up, but he's not following the usual trend. You also continually disregard the scouting reports we get during the season via the pre game audio, Money was very complimentary of the adjustments he's made offensively. He's a young player who's continues to grow, he's not a MLB player at his peak.

Advanced metrics haven't been kind to JJ... I'm on record as to how I feel they lack value, but I haven't seen any national publications rave about JJ's defense as a pro. In the minors certainly, but in the majors not so much, and I especially haven't seen anything since the horrible injury. If Sheets and Sabathia both walk then I believe that Hardy or Fielder should be moved for pitching. Escobar is an excellent prospect, under appreciated by those that prefer pure stats over scouting, and will be an above average SS for a long time.

When I said Escobar was one of the top prospects in all of baseball I was thinking he was a top 20 prospect, not a top 10... I guess there's an outside chance he's not on the list at all, but I highly doubt it. It doesn't mean much in the big picture, but good for him, to be in the top 1% by anyone's measure is quite an accomplishment.

He could probably play 2B too, but if Dykstra is moving back there then 3B would be the next logical choice. I think Lawrie's bat will play much faster than the rest of his game, we'll just have to see.

Very true Russ, but on the other hand is that 1 year deal worth a draft pick? I'm not sure it is to a smaller market team, but a large market team could view him as rental to put them over the top.

I see it the other way, he's easily replaced right now and may not be in the future. All year we heard how there was no viable offensive replacement for him, now that there are you're going to the "there are too many options available" card. He still has value, he's young and is a premium offensive player which many AL clubs would love to have for the next 3 years. Some of those clubs could likely afford to resign him as well. Trade wise it's not about the market as much as the motivation between the 2 teams. I have ideas who would be interested in Fielder, but none of us can say for sure. He's someone a team could rebuild around or could help a team turn the corner, as long as he doesn't have to play defense. It's all speculation on our part, but I don't think it's unreasonable to feel that some team will find Fielder's youth and offensive prowess attractive regardless of what's happening with the FA market.

If they are going to trade Fielder, this is the year to do it, from this point forward his value only goes down. It depends on how Melvin is viewing the club, long term or short term. Is he trying to put the best club on the field that he can in 2009 or is he looking at 2010? Dunn would be an excellent option at 1B as would Burrell if they were to move Fielder for pitching. If Gamel wouldn't stick at 3B either he or whomever is at 1B could move back out to the OF. The possibilities are really pretty limitless with both Hardy and Fielder relatively expendable (expendable in the grand scheme, I know opinions on who and when vary). This seems like a very good off season to do some dealing.

Pure stuff and polish for his age, much like why Rogers was protected I'd imagine (stuff not polish)

I've always liked PECOTA personally, probably because it was one of the few projection systems that liked Corey Hart as much as I did. I haven't have a BP membership since I picked up BA though, but I'd be curious what the projections for our top 3 prospects would be for next year. If memory serves the PECOTA projections come out latish, around March?, so it'll be awhile.

The point is, the 3 player deal is a better deal than the Indians got for Sabathia, and he's an above average guy signed for only 2 years, there's no way he pulls a young pitcher by himself, unless it's a bottom of the rotation guy, which Parra is not.

I hope Vinny gets a shot and I'll leave it at that.

He will be declining by the end of the contract and he will take up more than 25% of the salary. These deals are not about the first 2 or 3 years, but the last 3 years. The shorter the deal, the better for the Brewers, as they mitigate their risk significantly if they can shorten the contract length.

That's a statement of opinion, it's hardly fact. I for one would be upset because we'd be on the hook for 25%+ of the payroll being tied into one player, which I don't feel is good roster management, especially with the young talent on this team... I'd rather keep 3 players for the 20-25 million than sign 1 player for that price tag. I've said it before but we should be targeting preFA top of the rotation pitchers as they have the best value for the production as opposed to declining FA pitchers who are still productive but expensive, and their best days are behind them.

There is no way DeJesus is worth 3 prospects of the caliber you mention, as Gamel isn't going anywhere and neither is Parra. All of the players you mentioned are now AA players, Jeffress, Green, Cain, and Lucroy (the C is not caps) will all start the year in Huntsville, and Cain and Jeffress could end up in AAA because there are not top prospects in front of them. It seems to me that people around here tend to undervalue Parra... how many lefties in the game can run the ball up there in mid 90s? We can count them on 1 hand... He may never be a #2 pitcher as there's more to it than raw ability, but I'm not into moving players of his upside from a position we're already terribly thin at. Again for me it comes to down to building from the pitching on down, so I'll always be opposed to moving a SP unless we have someone better who he's blocking.

I find it hard to justify the Brewers spending 7-10 million on 1 inning at a time, and spending big money on the bullpen in general. There were some very interesting articles written this past season about the trap of spending big money on bullpens as performance usually fluctuates greatly from year to year. I came up empty on a quick google search, but I know they were linked here originally so maybe someone will remember them and post the links. My disdain of defined bullpen roles aside, I just don't see money spent on FA bullpen pitchers as good value. If I were going to prioritize where I'd like the Brewers to spend money on FAs it would go position players, starting pitchers, and then the bullpen. We're dealing with a payroll cap for the Brewers right around 90 million, so anytime we're discussing paying a single player 10% or more of the team's total available payroll I'm going to want maximum value for the dollar. I realize that the Brewers were to the point where a single marginal win mattered in 2008, but I'm not sure that will be the case in 2009 depending on how the roster shakes out. With some internal options available on the roster now and in the upper minor leagues, I'd rather not drop significant money on a closer this off season. As far as the position being a huge need, it's realistically the 4th or 5th priority for Melvin behind 2 spots in the rotation, 3B, and the middle infield. I know people will argue against Weeks being an issue, but Melvin clearly thought he was as he traded for Durham and SS only becomes an issue if Hardy is moved for pitching. If it came down to it I'd rather give Aguilar a shot before signing Wood (people are seriously considering him? Injury history anyone?) and Hoffman. I'm certainly not into giving up anything in the way of draft picks to acquire a FA closer either given their marginal impact, as Peavy stated, I'd stay away from anyone who was offered arbitration.

His shoulder injury would give me pause and probably many MLB teams... worst case scenario it costs the team 25k.

According to various zone rating systems, which also have Hardy below average... There is a disconnect here between what can be seen, and what people try to measure. Hall will make the fantastic play, but he'll also boot the easy play, he's been the same way everywhere he played in the field. I'd rather have someone who's going to make the routine play 99 out of 100 times than a guy who fields the easy grounder but hangs onto the ball to gun a throw to first and allows the runner to be safe. Hall is flashy, but he lacks substance, and I'm not jumping on his bandwagon because defensive metrics like him, and I would go so far as to say that his defensive game is a mirror image of his offensive game, lots of flash but a lack of substance. Hall's throws are all over the place, when you watch the games he's very similar to Weeks in that regard, where as JJ routinely hits Fielder right in the chest with the ball. I'm not aware of a metric that includes the throw location to 1B, but I don't see how Gamel's throwing would be any worse than Hall's. As I've said many times whenever Fielder starts moving around at 1B I tend to get nervous, so this is something I pay particular attention to. Gamel may not stick at 3B, I think he can be a very capable 1B and where ever he ends up I feel very confident that he'll have a solid career.

How is Gamel/Fielder worse than Hall/Fielder? The only accurate arm in the entire infield is Hardy... so I don't see what one has to do with the other. Maybe on paper these combinations of players work, but the best option at 3B is going to end up at 3B, regardless of who's playing first. I'm not sure what the team's plans are, but I'd be very surprised if the team made it's decision on 3B based on who's playing 1B.

There has to be a good deal on table to make a trade, it's not like Melvin can just snap his fingers and get his way. Nothing may happen at all if things don't pan out... a lack of information released to the public does not mean the front office isn't doing their due diligence.

What? 2 full years in AAA? That's borderline irrational at best... I would say 2 full years only because you want JJ through the duration of arby, not because Escobar won't be a capable replacement. Your dislike and irrational production expectations are reaching absurd levels. The kid is one of the best prospects in all of baseball, not just the Brewer system. I have no idea what you could possibly be basing your opinion on other than MLEs that didn't like his BABIP, which don't really mean anything going into next season, and a solid arguement can be made that they don't mean anything period. Every single stat in in his line is trending upwards, as he's progressing to higher levels in the minors... we aren't talking about TGJ who's been a flatline productivity wise, we're talking about a latin kid who many scouts consider the best SS in MiLB and who continues to make improvements in his game year to year. He doesn't have to hit 25 HRs like JJ to be as valuable, I can get behind many of your arguements but I don't understand this irrational opinion of Escobar. BABIB is just a metric, and one that I think people misinterpet. If a given players BABIB is high, he's likely hot, hitting good hitters pitches and hitting them hard... Regressing to mean just means he slumps and his numbers even out. When a guy has a high average, like Escobar, Salome, or Gamel in 2008... they absolutely raked all year. In Gamel's case he slumped for 2 months and still had a tremendous season... obviously they aren't going to sustain BABIP over .350, but give the kids their due for absolutely crushing the ball for an extended period of time. That's talent, not a statistical anomoly, these kids are capable hitters. Do I want Escobar or Gamel on opening day? I'd rather they start in AAA but it depends on the circumstances involved... I can envision scenarios where I would be thrilled to have Escobar or Gamel... for example, LAA trading Hardy for Santana.or the Rays trading us Shields for Fielder... I believe the Brewers can be a better team and lose a cog from this year's offense, maybe not a better team in 09 than 08, but definately better in 10 than 08. These trades get discussed based solely on offensive merits, comparing the incumbent to his replacement, when the issues are much deeper than that. So this disucssion really comes down to one thing, are people willing to trade position players for pitching or not? We have to give value to get value, so trading spare parts like Hall isn't going to get it done. It seems to me that this argument is split along those lines, to trade or not to trade, and when to trade. I'm in the trading camp, I don't care if it's this offseason or next, I just want them to jump on a good deal for pitching. I still feel that's the best way to acquire young/affordable pitching, as they are the best pitching value in MLB. If we're spending money I'd still rather trade Fielder, let CC walk, and get in the Teixeira sweepstakes... I'd rather sign a hitter then a pitcher, and a guy like Teixeira keeps the offense productive and improves the defense, which in turn improves the pitching again. edit. How is it reasonable to compare the Hurricane to Escobar? The situations are totally dissimilar in every way except that Nashville is still the AAA affiliate and their lines were somewhat similar a year apart. As X pointed out one player trending upwards, the other plateauing, why not just say Escobar will fail because TGJ's numbers got worse? Nashville was absolutely abysmal this season, no one but Branyan hit well, it wasn't just one guy, the team literally showed no signs of life all year.. Dillon played significantly worse there this year than he did the year before as well, most all of the vets trended negatively, not just Iribarren.

I don't see an A ball pitcher with an injury history being selected in the rule 5 draft, nor would I plan my strategy around the worse case scenario in this instance... better to leave him off the 40 man and save the options for when they will matter.

I've been terribly busy and haven't hit BF.net much last the 2 weeks, but I did catch this thread and I've been pondering the points made by various posters for a couple of days. I like the system more at this point in time than I ever have in the past. The one weakness I would agree with somewhat is power, there doesn't seem to a true power prospect in the system at this point in time, but there are players who may have that potential who will be in the lower minors next year. While we don't have a guy with legit 50 HR talent at this second, we have quite a few players with legit 20 HR potential, maybe30 HR potential. If the big club was where it was in 2004 I think people would be as excited about Gamel, Escobar, and Salome as they were about Fielder, Weeks, and Hardy. It's just a difference of perspective given the state of the MLB team and we've had the chance to grow attached to that first wave of players. I think sometimes we just get caught up in tools... when tools doesn't necessarily have anything to do with who will be the better MLB player for their career. Tools are nice and all, but who's to say that Green won't be a better all around player than a Weeks when it's all said and done? It's too difficult to project, and I'm not sold on using one method to evaluate the talent. I like some guys because they produce, I like some guys because they are toolsy, etc. A guy like Green might not be a better prospect than Weeks, but he might be a better baseball player in the end. I'm a rarity I guess in that I'm more comfortable in the position players that are close than I was with a guy like Weeks. His AA season really gave me pause and I know he started the following year hot in AAA, but I would have rather he spent more time in AAA. I've always been a huge Hardy guy but he got hurt and skipped AAA entirely when his bat was questionable at the time. Some of these guys might have a total package of tools that will blow us away, but my guy feeling is that they will be above average MLB players. I have no doubt that Gamel and Salome will hit, I never have, I'm curious about how their defensive issues progress. Escobar will be fine defensively, and I see his last 2 seasons as evidence that he's maturing at the plate so I'm very comfortable with him as well. The trio of Hardy, Weeks, and Fielder is probably worse defensively than the Trio of Escobar, Salome, and Gamel. I don't think it's fair to compare them offensively at this point in time, it would pure speculation and MLEs are not gospel to me so I'd rather avoid that debate again. I will say that the latest trio has the potential to match the offensive production of the first though... no one will hit 50 HRs in a year, but Gamel and Salome could each hit 35ish, with Escobar adding 10-20 depending upon what you believe. Would they do it in 2009? No, but again I would be trying to compare both trios at similar points in their careers. I see Gamel, Escobar, Salome, Green, Cain, and Lucroy being the perfect compliment players to the existing MLB roster, freeing up one of the catching prospects and maybe a MLB player to be moved for another top of the rotation MLB starte I really like the pitching depth, there are so many intriguing story lines out there to follow, but the upper part of the system is thin with top rotation potential. While we didn't have anyone with Yo/Parra/Inman type domination statistically last season, there's still plenty to be excited about at AA and below. It only takes 1 breakout season for our prospects to get national run or for a guy to be considered an "impact" player, and we have plenty of players toolsy enough to earn that label in the future. I liked the addition of the starters in the draft particularily Ordorizzi, Lintz, Bowman, and Luetge... Scarpetta proved he has promise after losing a year, some of the latin kids pitched well in Helena. I wouldn't be shocked if in 3 or 4 years the Brewers had an entire rotation of home grown talent. While there are short term issues in regards to top of the rotation talent, I don't see that as a long term issue at this point in time. Beyond the top 6 positional players, I like the organization's depth here as well, with the exception of 1B and 2B. However 2B can be filled by SS and so on, so I'm not overly concerned about it, but I would like to see a pure power prospect or 2 at 1B in the near future. People looking for an impact bat in the system (how Gamel/Salome don't qualify I'm unsure) will need to look no further than Lawrie. Yes he hasn't taken a MiLB AB yet, but for some reason I feel better about him than I ever did about Braun. I'm intrigued by 2-3 of the positional players outside of of the first 6 I mentioned at every level, heck I even like Trejo and he only played in a couple of games before blowing out his knee at Helena. Maybe I'm just overly optomistic, but I really like what the Brewers have done. While the current system isn't as highly rated as it was a couple of years ago by BA, top to bottom I think the system is much stronger/deeper and I'm just as excited about the kids on the way as I was for that first group of prospects. BA is great and all, but I'd take the system today over the system when it was headlined by Fielder/Weeks.