The Brewers and Jackson Chourio have agreed to an eight-year contract extension with a reported value of $82 million. It also includes a team option of extending the contract for $25M a year for two more years.  There are $10M of incentives available to Chourio. 

Is this a good deal for the Brewers? Is it a good deal for Chourio?  A look at recent history could provide some answers.  If we look at the recent salary history of a few other center fielders, we may get an idea of the range of possibilities for how Chourio’s contract may look in the rear view mirror. 

The Floor:  Harrison Bader is a free agent center fielder this year.  He has struggled to consistently put up good offensive numbers with a career batting line of  .243/.310/.396/.706.  He has proven to be worthy as a defense first center fielder and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $10M a year over a two-year free agent contract.  So far in the six plus years in The Show, Bader has earned close to $13,000,000.  An eight year total will be close to $33M. 

In his first eight years, Chourio will be paid $49 million more than what Bader will have been during his first eight years as an MLB player.  Although considering salary inflation this may really be closer to a $40M overpay.  Bader didn’t have the pedigree or the hype; but his defensive profile is a fair comparison to what the Brewers anticipate from Chourio while in the field.  This speed and defense profile with limited offensive value provides a good floor for Chourio’s worth over this contract.  If the offensive hype turns out to be an over sell, a defense first center fielder still holds value in MLB.  But it would likely be an over pay of around $40M.    

The Ceiling: On the optimistic side of things, let’s look at how much value the Brewers would be gaining if Chourio ends up being like Mike --- Mike Trout.  Mike Trout earned $110 million dollars over his first eight years as an MLB player.  And as part of a longer free agent contract, he earned around $70M over the next two years.  For total ten-year earnings of $180M.    

In this case, Chourio would be selling short on his potential earnings by around $60M.  And perhaps the biggest value for the Brewers is that Chourio would still be a Brewer for those last two years of the contract. Chourio would have postponed his opportunity to sign the next mega free agent contract while going into his age twenty-seven or age twenty-eight season. 

A More Realistic In-the-Middle Perspective:  If you aren’t as optimistic as to think that Jackson Chourio is the next Mike Trout, but still believe the hype; perhaps the most relevant comp is the last player to sign a long-term extension prior to joining the major league club:  Luis Robert.  The White Sox contract with Luis Robert likely provided both the Brewers and Chourio’s agent a good benchmark for their eventual contract.  In the Winter of 2019, Robert signed a six-year contract with the White Sox for $50M with two additional club option years for $20M each.  This is a total value of $90M over the first eight years.  Without knowing Chourio’s incentive package, this seems roughly inline with the contract Chourio and the Brewers signed.   

Robert has proven to be a good deal for the White Sox providing elite defense and an .827 OPS although he has played in only 64% of the White Sox games over the last three years. And Robert has been provided with great wealth, security and a contract length that still provides an opportunity for a free agency pay off. 

Time will tell, if the Brewers and/or Chourio made the best choice in signing this contract.  But contracts are signed in the moment with the information available right now.  As fans, I am sure we will look back and judge this contract because that is what fans do.  Today, considering the comps, this seems like a good deal for both sides.