Brewers trade proposal - Harden

[BrewersNation]

Doug Melvin has repeatedly said that there are several "untouchables" down on the farm. Any deal made would be one of quantity, excluding the likes of presumably Mat Gamel, Matt LaPorta, and Jeremy Jeffress. Billy Beane has a history of taking a deal that has a boatload of prospects, as he has a better chance of hitting on a player. Take a look at his deal sending Dan Haren to Arizona. It got done because Arizona sent a plethora of prospects over.

 

Rich Harden may have a history of injuries (not unlike Ben Sheets), but he is a player the Brewers may be able to get without sacrificing too much. Would a deal like this work?

 

CF Tony Gwynn Jr.

1B Brad Nelson

C Angel Salome

RHP Omar Aguilar

 

Could that package get Harden to Milwaukee? Or would someone like a Cole Gillespie or Caleb Gindl need to be thrown in as well?

[ryanbraun75]

I believe that it would take more along the lines of Escobar, Lucroy/Salome, Gillespie, and probably another pitcher to get a deal done for Harden. But i believe that it is a better option to explore other pitchers than Sabathia that wont require Gamel or LaPorta. Those two are untouchable and i believe Salome is untouchable as well.

 

Joe Blanton would be the guy i would pursue on the As. Yes he is 3-11 or something and his ERA is missleading at 4.89. Over the last several years he has been a quality starter that throws a lot of innings and makes every start. He also has some really good stuff that translates well to the National league.

 

Billy Bean probably wont give up Harden at this point because they are still in it but Blanton has had tough luck all year with the As and could use a change of scenary.

[dadofandrew]

Beane would need ML pitching in return. They are right in it, so the A's are unlikely to move any frontline guys.

[BrewersNation]

do you think we could get away with throwing dave bush in the mix? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[BrewersNation]

Actually, if Doug must trade some ML pitching, why not go after the pitcher de jour, Zack Greinke? We could offer up a package like...

 

RHP Carlos Villanueva - who seems unable to find a home in Milwaukee

LF Cole Gillespie

1B Brad Nelson

[JoeHova]

a package of Villanueva, Gillespie, Nelson/Gwynn, and another guy (Cain?) may be enough to pry away a Harden or Greinke. I wouldn't be shocked if something like that happened.

[twobrewers]

a package of Villanueva, Gillespie, Nelson/Gwynn, and another guy (Cain?) may be enough to pry away a Harden or Greinke.

Villanueva has little value. He is pretty much an average MLB pitcher. (All of his value is in his contract)

 

Gillespie is a good - but far from great prospect.

 

Nelson & Gwynn will probably have big league careers - but I doubt either will ever be a starter.

 

In other words, you won't get quality for quantity.

[BrewersNation]

Carlos Villanueva posted a 3.94 ERA as a 23-year old last season. He has struggled in 2008, but as a 24-year old with big league experience...I would hardly consider him having little value.

[twobrewers]

Carlos Villanueva posted a 3.94 ERA as a 23-year old last season.

He was incredibly lucky last year. His peripheral numbers were not very good.

 

The 2008 Carlos Villanueva version is much more life like.

[brewjihad]

a package of Villanueva, Gillespie, Nelson/Gwynn, and another guy (Cain?) may be enough to pry away a Harden or Greinke.

 

Greinke has been discussed over here. I've been a huge proponent of trying to get him. However, there is no way that that package could get Greinke. The kinda consensus is that it would take LaPorta or Gamel, then Salome (or maybe Escobar), and maybe two of the guys you mentioned- Gwynn, Cain, Nelson, etc. Greinke is a 24 year old stud with great stuff.

 

Harden has less value on the market, but I don't think the A's are very motivated to trade him right now.

[JoeHova]

I disagree with you guys. Greinke and Harden have value, but they are both in their 4th year and have very serious injury concerns. For 2 years of an injury prone player, the teams would be getting 4 years of Villanueva (average pitcher at least, imo), 6 years of Gillespie (likely an ML player, though I guess a team may disagree. I think he can be an average or slighty below corner OF, a Mark Teahen type), and 6 years of Nelson or Gwynn, who should both be ok to good 4th outfielders. Then they get Cain who could develop or not.

 

That doesn't excite me too much, but it does excite some GM's, just witness Melvin's various deals. He likes to take relatively low-ceiling guys who have a good chance of at least contributing rather than take a shot at the home run.

 

Anyway, I think a team may take a deal like that. If they don't want to, oh well, because Gamel or LaPorta would far too much to give for Greinke or Harden.

 

I'm not even saying the deal would be smart for Milwaukee, I don't know if it would. I'm just not sure how you can definitively state that a team wouldn't prefer 10 seasons of average-ish ML service and 6 of a good backup over 2 of good but injury prone.

[endaround]

Bedard was injury plagued, had only two years remaining, and got Jones plus.

[BrewersNation]

Good point. Santana didn't cost as much as Seattle paid for Bedard though. Seattle made an awful deal.

[brewjihad]

Greinke and Harden have value, but they are both in their 4th year and have very serious injury concerns.

 

Harden, yes, but Greinke? He has been placed on the DL once in his major league career, and that was for his depression/social issues.

[JoeHova]

Greinke and Harden have value, but they are both in their 4th year and have very serious injury concerns.

 

Harden, yes, but Greinke? He has been placed on the DL once in his major league career, and that was for his depression/social issues.

 

 

yeah, and missed a whole (major league) year because of it. I empathize with Greinke, but the risk of a recurrence is there, especially if he is traded out of his comfort zone.

[endaround]

Good point. Santana didn't cost as much as Seattle paid for Bedard though. Seattle made an awful deal.

The Santana trade is not a good barometer. Santana had a no trade clause and any team trading for him would have to sign him at $20m+ a year for 6 years for him to waive it. He's making $19 m this season compared to Harden's $4.5m this year and $7m next year or Bedard's $7m this year and about $9m next year or Gerinke's $1.4m this and likely $15m total for the next two seasons.

 

[brewjihad]

yeah, and missed a whole (major league) year because of it. I empathize with Greinke, but the risk of a recurrence is there, especially if he is traded out of his comfort zone.

 

Okay, I understand that- but I don't think I'd label it an injury. If a pitcher has injury concerns, I'd be worried about them hurting their arm.