Two Out RBI and Home Runs

[Bumblebee Nickels]

As of today's (4/15) fourth inning, Brewers pitchers have allowed 53 runs, with 33 of them (62%) coming with two outs. Of the 17 home runs allowed, 13 (76%) have come with two outs.

This seems like a higher percentage than it should be, but I can't seem to find any long-term statistics to compare to. Is there any thing to this trend, besides small sample size? A tendancy for pitchers to lose focus or relax once two outs are recorded, perhaps?

If anyone can locate any other statistics, I would appreciate it.

[nate82]

More to do with the pitchers not hitting their spots than anything really. Just going off of memory of the base hits and the home runs that have come on with 2 outs have been mistake pitches or pitches that have gotten to much of the plate.

[brewcrewkid14]

I'm guessing it's just early season rust for the pitchers. I'm confident guys like Gallardo and Davis are going to settle down and still have some solid games. I'm also wondering whether or not Peterson has them thinking too much, and if it is going to take a while for them to do what he's telling them effectively. Especially with his intense analysis of the pitching form.

[dadofandrew]

The only options are 0, 1, or 2 outs. About a third of the runs should score on each, except runners have moved up to scoring position more with 2 outs, so I would guess about 40% of runs score with 2 outs.

 

It's just math.