2022 MLB Playoffs

[Brewcrew82]

Aaron Nola is a tad overrated imo. Great peripherals and metrics but the results just never match it. 

[Brewcrew82]

Philly is fun. 

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Aaron Nola is a tad overrated imo. Great peripherals and metrics but the results just never match it. 

Yeah this is quite the hot take. Since 2017 he’s averaging nearly 200 IP and 6 bWAR per 162 games. 122 ERA+ with a 3.24 FIP in that time span. Don’t see anyone put him in that top tier of pitchers with Scherzer, deGrom, Verlander, Kershaw. He’s considered in the tier below so I can’t possibly understand how you think he’s overrated.  

[Brewcrew82]

26 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah this is quite the hot take. Since 2017 he’s averaging nearly 200 IP and 6 bWAR per 162 games. 122 ERA+ with a 3.24 FIP in that time span. Don’t see anyone put him in that top tier of pitchers with Scherzer, deGrom, Verlander, Kershaw. He’s considered in the tier below so I can’t possibly understand how you think he’s overrated.  

He's obviously still really really good. But since his breakout 2018, he hasn't posted an ERA below 3 in a season despite great peripherals and metrics. Last year, his ERA was above 4.50. That's what I meant by a "tad" overrated. He becomes a little too hittable at times, like in his last couple starts. I'd probably rank DeGrom, Scherzer, Burnes, Verlander, Alcantara, McClanahan, Wheeler, Woodruff, Urias, and Rodon all ahead of him at this point. 

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He's obviously still really really good. But since his breakout 2018, he hasn't posted an ERA below 3 in a season despite great peripherals and metrics. Last year, his ERA was above 4.50. That's what I meant by a "tad" overrated. He becomes a little too hittable at times, like in his last couple starts. I'd probably rank DeGrom, Scherzer, Burnes, Verlander, Alcantara, McClanahan, Wheeler, Woodruff, Urias, and Rodon all ahead of him at this point. 

So one down year makes a guy overrated? Despite multiple years of success surrounding that one season? 

[Brewcrew82]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

So one down year makes a guy overrated? Despite multiple years of success surrounding that one season? 

"He hasn't posted an ERA below 3.00 since 2018." He has by far the highest ERA (3.80) among elite pitchers since 2020....

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

"He hasn't posted an ERA below 3.00 since 2018." He has by far the highest ERA (3.80) among elite pitchers since 2020....

You’re taking a 2.5 year sample size that includes his worst season since he became an established full time MLB pitcher. Of course his ERA (which by the way, hilariously ironic that you are using ERA) since 2020 won’t be as good because he had a bad 2021 and 2020 was a 60 game season. He has precedent as a very good SP dating back to 2017 and like I said nobody includes him in the top class of SP in the MLB so how is he overrated? 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

You’re taking a 2.5 year sample size that includes his worst season since he became an established full time MLB pitcher. Of course his ERA (which by the way, hilariously ironic that you are using ERA) since 2020 won’t be as good because he had a bad 2021 and 2020 was a 60 game season. He has precedent as a very good SP dating back to 2017 and like I said nobody includes him in the top class of SP in the MLB so how is he overrated? 

He's 10th in FIP in the same period. So you can laugh at the irony all you want. I generally don't like ERA (particularly when used to evaluate single seasons), but it does mean something when his is so much higher than every other elite pitcher's since 2019, and he hasn't posted an ERA below 3 since 2018. 

My argument was that he's a "tad overrated" because he has a tendency to get lit up more than the average elite pitcher, which is largely true. Closer to a top 15 pitcher than a top 5. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He's 10th in FIP in the same period. So you can laugh at the irony all you want. I generally don't like ERA (particularly when used to evaluate single seasons), but it does mean something when his is so much higher than every other elite pitcher's since 2019, and he hasn't posted an ERA below 3 since 2018. 

My argument was that he's a "tad overrated" because he has a tendency to get lit up more than the average elite pitcher, which is largely true. Closer to a top 15 pitcher than a top 5. 

Who considers him a top 5 pitcher in baseball? 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Who considers him a top 5 pitcher in baseball? 

Did I specifically say anyone considers him a top 5 pitcher in baseball? All I said he's much closer to 15 than 5 because of his tendency to get lit up more frequently than other elite pitchers. Sheesh. 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Did I specifically say anyone considers him a top 5 pitcher in baseball? All I said he's much closer to 15 than 5 because of his tendency to get lit up more frequently than other elite pitchers. Sheesh. 

Since 2020 he’s 5th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA among qualified SP. If nobody considers that pitcher a top 5 SP in baseball then I’m not sure how you can argue said pitcher is overrated. 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Since 2020 he’s 5th in FIP, 4th in xFIP, and 3rd in SIERA among qualified SP. If nobody considers that pitcher a top 5 SP in baseball then I’m not sure how you can argue said pitcher is overrated. 

Did you even read my original statement? Very very good metrics and peripherals, like top 5 pitcher worthy, but his actual results (i.e,, ERA) have not come close to matching that lately.  Hence, a “tad” overrated. Many would say he’s for sure top 10 based on his metrics and peripherals, but I would put him between 15-11. It’s just my opinion and not that hot of a take. 

[Brewcrew82]

BTW that was a great game 1 of the World Series. Wonder if we’re in line for one of those all-time classics….

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Did you even read my original statement? Very very good metrics and peripherals, like top 5 pitcher worthy, but his actual results (i.e,, ERA) have not come close to matching that lately.  Hence, a “tad” overrated. Many would say he’s for sure top 10 based on his metrics and peripherals, but I would put him between 15-11. It’s just my opinion and not that hot of a take. 

You do realize this is the complete opposite take that you had earlier this year when I said Burnes wasn’t a top 10 SP this season right? You said ERA doesn’t matter and that things like xFIP and SIERA matter. The lack of consistency is eye opening. 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You do realize this is the complete opposite take that you had earlier this year when I said Burnes wasn’t a top 10 SP this season right? You said ERA doesn’t matter and that things like xFIP and SIERA matter. The lack of consistency is eye opening. 

You do realize that ERA is much more useful when evaluating multiple seasons as opposed to a single season? Things like xFIP and SIERA are good for evaluating single seasons and predicting the future because they take luck and things that a pitcher can’t  control out of the equation. However, that stuff tends to even out over the course of several seasons, so ERA becomes increasingly useful. 

Anyways, it shouldn’t matter because I said from the start that I was basing my “tad” overrated opinion on the sharp divergence between Nola’s metrics/peripherals and actual results (I.e., ERA) since his 2018 breakout.

[Redd Vencher]

I think it's worthwhile to look at his peripherals more than ERA because Philadelphia has been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball for years. 2019 being the lone exception. He's not getting much help behind him.

2022 -34 DRS -11 UZR -6 FR -37 OAA

2021 -54 DRS -7.3 UZR 6.2 FR -24 OAA

2020 -33 DRS -10.7 UZR -0.1 FR -16 OAA

2019 68 DRS 21.1 UZR 8.0 FR -2 OAA

2018 -89 DRS -10.7 UZR 6.4 FR -36 OAA

2017 -33 DRS 2.3 UZR -21.5 FR 3 OAA

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

I think it's worthwhile to look at his peripherals more than ERA because Philadelphia has been one of the worst defensive teams in baseball for years. 2019 being the lone exception. He's not getting much help behind him.

2022 -34 DRS -11 UZR -6 FR -37 OAA

2021 -54 DRS -7.3 UZR 6.2 FR -24 OAA

2020 -33 DRS -10.7 UZR -0.1 FR -16 OAA

2019 68 DRS 21.1 UZR 8.0 FR -2 OAA

2018 -89 DRS -10.7 UZR 6.4 FR -36 OAA

2017 -33 DRS 2.3 UZR -21.5 FR 3 OAA

That's a fair take. But I guess the crux of my argument is that the divergence between his peripherals and results since 2019 is so much more than his ace counterparts, some of whom also have had to deal with shoddy defense during that time, that it simply speaks to his tendency to get lit up more frequently, as in his last couple postseason starts

[Redd Vencher]

Who are the ace

9 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That's a fair take. But I guess the crux of my argument is that the divergence between his peripherals and results since 2019 is so much more than his ace counterparts, some of whom also have had to deal with shoddy defense during that time, that it simply speaks to his tendency to get lit up more frequently, as in his last couple postseason starts

Who are the counterparts outside of Wheeler that have had to deal with the shoddy defense? 

[Brewcrew82]

Here's the culprit, as I suspected: Since 2019, Aaron Nola is outside of the top 30 in BAA. And it's not due to an abnormally high BABIP, either, as his BABIP (.296) is essentially equal to Burnes, Bieber. and Fried during that time. Meanwhile, during his career year of 2018, his BAA was .196 and his BABIP was the 7th lowest among qualifiers. 

So, Aaron Nola's propensity to get hit more than his fellow elites is largely a product of his actual pitching and not as much bad luck. Hence, a "tad overrated" and more of a top 15-10 pitcher than a top 9-5 pitcher. 

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

Who are the ace

Who are the counterparts outside of Wheeler that have had to deal with the shoddy defense? 

Scherzer, when he was with the Nationals. Rodon, with both the White Sox and Giants. DeGrom. To name a few. 

[wiguy94]

11 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Scherzer, when he was with the Nationals. Rodon, with both the White Sox and Giants. DeGrom. To name a few. 

From 2016 to 2022 Scherzer's defense had -3 OAA and -3 runs prevented while he was pitching.

From 2016 to 2022 Rodon's defense had 1 OAA and 2 runs prevented while he was pitching.

From 2016 to 2022 deGrom's defense had 6 OAA and 4 runs prevented while he was pitching.

From 2016 to 2022 Nola's defense had -14 OAA and -11 runs prevented while he was pitching. 

Nola's numbers are 267/277 in terms of OAA support and 266/277 in term of run prevention support. 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

From 2016 to 2022 Scherzer's defense had -3 OAA and -3 runs prevented while he was pitching.

From 2016 to 2022 Rodon's defense had 1 OAA and 2 runs prevented while he was pitching.

From 2016 to 2022 deGrom's defense had 6 OAA and 4 runs prevented while he was pitching.

From 2016 to 2022 Nola's defense had -14 OAA and -11 runs prevented while he was pitching. 

Nola's numbers are 267/277 in terms of OAA support and 266/277 in term of run prevention support. 

Okay, but what about his tendency to get hit more than his ace counterparts, when he's not comparatively short on BABIP luck? And why hasn't he posted sub 3 ERAs like Zack Wheeler since 2020 with the same defense? 

[Brewcrew82]

What do the people think of the dugout interviews FOX is doing this postseason after HRs? I personally love it and think it does a lot to help market the stars, which MLB falls short of compared to its NFL and NBA counterparts, but I know there's a contingent that is pretty strongly against it. 

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

What do the people think of the dugout interviews FOX is doing this postseason after HRs? I personally love it and think it does a lot to help market the stars, which MLB falls short of compared to its NFL and NBA counterparts, but I know there's a contingent that is pretty strongly against it. 

I read that the players had the choice to opt out of those interviews. Don't see any issues with it if the players are okay with it.

[Brewcrew82]

I would so love for Aaron Ashby to turn into Framer Valdez.