Article: Brewers 4, Giants 6: The Suffering Continues

[Jason Wang]

The Brewers extend their losing streak to five games as they drop the first game of the series against the San Francisco Giants. 

Box Score

Starting Pitcher: Corbin Burnes - 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K, 94 pitches, 56 strikes (59.6%)
Home Runs: None 
Top 3 WPA: Tyrone Taylor (.193), Willy Adames (.108), Owen Miller (.078) 
Bottom 3 WPA: Corbin Burnes (-.349), Christian Yelich (-.187), Brian Anderson (-.109) 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

 

Let’s Face It - Bur nes Just Isn’t The Same
Brewers fans have been waiting patiently for their usually dominant ace to return to his usual form but that seems to be more and more wishful thinking with each subsequent start. While he wasn’t credited with all five runs that occurred during his start, his WPA tells a different story.

After walking LaMonte Wade Jr, Burnes gave up a crucial 2-RBI home run to J.D. Davis in the first inning. These were the two earned runs as noted by the official scorer. Davis had some interesting post-game comments regarding what he was looking for and how the hanging cutter ended up in the seats.

The fifth inning started off with a flyout by Joey Bart before things got quite out of hand.

1. Brett Wisely hits a single.
2. Brett Wisely steals second.
3. Cal Stevenson reaches on a throwing error by Willy Adames, allowing him to get to second base while advancing Wisely to third
4. LaMonte Wade Jr. strikes out
5. Thairo Estrada hits a single to score Wisely and advance Stevenson to third.
6. J.D. Davis walks, advancing Estrada to second and loading the bases.
7. Joc Pederson hits a single to score Stevenson and Estrada but gets thrown out trying to snag an extra base, ending the inning.

If Adames had made the out of Stevenson, the strikeout of Wade would have ended the inning and avoided the damage. If Burnes had struck out Estrada or gotten him to ground out, the inning would have ended. There are several different “ifs” where we could’ve put this all behind us but if "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, the Brewers would be in the World Series every year.

There have been several articles on this site trying to diagnose what has caused Burnes’ regression this year, citing his inability to utilize the entirety of the strike zone and an altered pitch mix as possible causes. 

His percentile rankings are all above average and hovering within the ballpark of last season, except his strikeout rate which has dropped to the 33rd percentile, significantly down from the 89th percentile strikeout rate he had in 2022. All in all, it’s clear that a Burnes start is no longer the free win to which we had grown accustomed in years past.

Running Out Of Steam
There were some shake-ups to the batting order today, with Contreras batting leadoff and hitting a double to start things strong. Owen Miller and Willy Adames would then hit back-to-back singles to score the first run of the game and give the Brewers an early lead. Miller would score the second run of the inning before Brian Anderson would get caught stealing and end a productive offensive push.

Milwaukee scoring would be quiet until the fifth inning where two back-to-back singles by Tyrone Taylor and Joey Wiemer followed by both guys stealing a base would put two base runners in scoring position. A throwing error by Joey Bart would help Taylor score the Brewers’ third run of the game and a sacrifice fly by Owen Miller would allow Wiemer to score the Brewers’ fourth run of the game.

The Brewers held a 4-2 lead before the Giants would bounce back with three runs of their own to take the lead at 5-4, but a comeback didn’t seem out of the realm of possibility. 

In the final four innings of the game, just two Brewers would get on base. Willy Adames hit a single in the seventh inning and Jesse Winker had a crucial walk in the ninth, none of which materialized into runs. It didn’t help that Giants closer Camilo Doval has been averaging a 100 mph cutter which he utilizes 33% of the time. Winker's great at-bat showed off what continues to be his best quality, plate discipline, but it was too much for Luke Voit, Victor Caratini, and Rowdy Tellez. 

Milwaukee pitching has been its own issue as of late, but the lineup has also struggled to make offensive pushes late into games, preventing them from regaining leads and leading to sad faces in the dugout. 

The Bullpen Is Back…? Maybe? Don’t Quote Me
On the bright side, Brewers relievers had their first solid performance in what seems like eons, giving up just one hit and one earned run across two innings. Bryse Wilson had a scare by giving up two consecutive walks in his one inning of relief but after what seemed to be a crucial mound visit, he was able to lock it in and escape the jam by getting a lineout and a groundout. 

Hoby Milner, who is deeply struggling and holds a 5.11 ERA, gave up a home run to Wilmer Flores in the eighth inning. As Milwaukee’s only lefty reliever, there is a chance he swaps places with Ethan Small, who currently holds a 2.70 ERA with the Nashville Sounds over 13.1 innings pitched.

Jake Cousins was optioned prior to the series and replaced by Bennett Sousa, another lefty who has a 5.40 ERA in 5.0 total innings so far this season. He saw 20 major league innings with the Chicago White Sox in 2022, but hopefully his 8.41 ERA is not something he brought over from the Windy City.

What’s Next? 
Colin Rea will duel Alex Cobb as the Brewers aim to return to the winning ways of the start of the season in the second game of the Giants series. While it seems like the offense has slowly started to return to form, the pitching will need to straighten itself out if the team truly hopes to make its mark on the division. Luckily, the Pittsburgh Pirates also lost today so Milwaukee is still just 1.5 games behind. In fact, the whole NL Central seems to have forgot how to win baseball games so the playoff implications haven't been drastically affected. According to FanGraphs, the Brewers still have a 60.9% chance to go to the postseason and a 51.6% chance to win the division, the most likely division leader by far.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

	MON	TUE	WED	THU	FRI	TOT
Strzelecki	0	10	0	27	0	37
Payamps	0	14	0	21	0	35
Cousins	0	0	33	0	0	33
Milner	0	0	12	0	17	29
Peguero	0	0	16	0	11	27
B Wilson	0	0	0	0	18	18
Miller	0	0	0	12	0	12
Williams	0	0	0	0	0	0

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