Could Vargas' high win total be a BAD thing for the Brewers?

[DougJones43]

Claudio Vargas had a pretty nice start to the season, with a good W-L record, and an ERA under 4 through April and May. It can certainly be argued that he encountered a lot of luck to produce the low ERA.

 

In June, Vargas had a 5.24 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and gave up 7 HR during the month. All of this added up to...3 Wins and 0 losses!

 

Now, if the Brewers offense doesn't score about 9 runs/game when he was pitching, he could have easily been 0-3 instead of 3-0. If that was the case, I imagine there is a decent chance he's a candidate to have already been removed from the rotation by this point.

 

His high win totals and early season luck have earned him a longer leash then he deserves. He's just not a very good pitcher. He was never very good with Arizona, and it's disappointing to see both Villanueva and Gallardo in the bullpen, while this guy continues to start.

 

It's going to be very disappointing if Villanueva ends up with his projected 112 IP this season, because we kept Vargas in the rotation due to good luck and great run support. This would greatly hinder the ability for Villanueva to move into a full-time starting role next year.

 

While it's nice to have a few extra wins in our back pocket, I think we would have won most of Vargas' games no matter who started them. I think his "success" could hurt the team longterm if management doesn't figure out soon that he needs to be replaced, and we have better options.

[TCSM]

If its working why change it? Now if your looking about for changes, a la villy in the starting rotation...replace villy for bush.

[DougJones43]

If its working why change it?

 

The reason it was working has very little to do with him, unless you think he is somehow responsible for the Brewers offense getting lots of runs when he pitches.

 

And it doesn't seem to be working today, which was the inevitable conclusion to all of this. His run support wasn't going to stay at 9 runs/game or whatever, and today's game is the typical result to expect when this happens.

 

I'd much rather keep Bush in the rotation than Vargas. When all other factors even out, Bush will give us the best chance to win games in the long-run.

[endaround]

Well Vargas's high win total does mean his trade value is higher...

[brettac1]

Doug Melvin knows that wins are silly. I would trust in that.

 

The time will come when Vargas is bumped from the rotation. I would guarantee that he won't be in the rotation in the playoffs.

[DougJones43]

I would guarantee that he won't be in the rotation in the playoffs.

 

Well, yeah. Most #5 starters rarely (if ever) get many starts in the playoffs.

 

If he isn't replaced by the end of July, I think it will be a mistake that could cost us some regular season victories.

[Crew2323]

I think Vargas is serviceable, but his record is highly deceiving. He always seems to be falling behind hitters, especially today. He fell behind Doumit 2-0, grooved a fastball and it's a tie game. He falls behind LaRoche 3-0, and he hits the go ahead homerun. It just seemed like he was falling behind hitters all day.

 

Compared to the rest of the Brewers starters, he's got the worst WHIP: 1.51; he's got the worst SLG% at .484; Highest pitches/inning pitched averaging 17.69 and has the highest walks/9Innings at 3.82/9IP. He also has given up the most HR's on the staff with 17. Now, I'm not a huge stat guy, and perhaps the stats I've chosen aren't that important, but I think they put Vargas' performance into perspective.

[AJAY]

Vargas rarely ever seems dominant. I personally think he is mostly smoke and mirrors.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's the same issue with Spurling in the pen. He's not terrible either but they have not one but two better alternatives and the goal isn't to finish .500. If they are serious about winning, they have to make a move.

 

If they must restrict Gallardo's innings, stick Villanueva in the rotation in Vargas' spot. Yes Carlos has been stellar in relief but starting pitching is key.

[brettac1]

Well, yeah. Most #5 starters rarely (if ever) get many starts in the playoffs.

 

I guess what I mean is that the Brewers think Dave Bush is better than Vargas, as well, so you don't have to worry about that. Keeping Vargas in the rotation and not putting Gallardo in it does help the Brewers long term, because they don't need to put the innings on his arm. Villanueva could step in there with ease, probably, but then that would hurt the bullpen some.

[DougJones43]

Yes Carlos has been stellar in relief but starting pitching is key.

 

Bingo. Couldn't agree more. Also, Gallardo will probably fill in nicely for the role Villanueva has been occupying.

[JohnBriggs12]

Another issue to consider is that Capuano and Suppan have not pitched like 2 and 3 guys should. If they had, the pressure to replace Vargas would not be that intense. But outside of Sheets, nobody is really doing much.

[shelmark]

The answer is yes, and the solution is go after Buerhle. We need a # 2 type starter if we are serious about getting to the playoffs and actually doing something when we get there.

[sbrylski]

I'll thrid the Villanueva for Vargas swap. However, I think it would be best to try and trade Vargas before we just pen him. Demoting him would kill his value, and I believe its very likely we will trade him before next opening day.

[lukevan]

I've been thinking for awhile that Villanueva to the rotation / Vargas traded / Gallardo into Villy's role would be the best solution.

 

Villy has plenty of innings left in his arm for the rest of '07, Gallardo can be limited innings-wise and we would most likely gain production in the starting rotation. The one problem I'd see is putting Gallardo in high-pressure late inning situations when we don't really know for sure how he'll respond to semi-daily work in the pen. The next few weeks up until the trade deadline will be interesting; if Gallardo shows he can handle a bullpen role, I'd like to see Vargas traded for prospect+ and Chuckie Newhouse in the rotation.

[Diskono]

Quote:

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Well Vargas's high win total does mean his trade value is higher...

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This. Remember that Wayne Franklin got us Carlos Villanueva.

[Ennder]

Bush is the 4th or maybe even 3rd best pitcher in the rotation, Vargas is the 5th best and probably the 7th best starter on the team.