Will the Brewers Trade Willy Adames?

[Ryan Pollak]

As the 2024 offseason rolls on, the Brewers are receiving interest in their star shortstop. With one year of club control left, should the team consider trading Willy Adames?

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

The Winter Meetings are over, and the Milwaukee Brewers haven’t shown any signs of tearing the whole team down. Despite some rumors about selling players on expiring contracts and making everyone available, we haven’t seen any trades made since the Jake Bauers deal in November—and that was to add to the 2024 team, not subtract from it.

There is a growing belief that the Brewers will sell ace pitcher Corbin Burnes this winter. On the other hand, there’s hardly been any noise about what the team is going to do with shortstop Willy Adames.

Adames is entering his last year of arbitration and will become a free agent after the 2024 season. The Brewers could play out his walk year and try to bring him back, or they could trade him. Here are some reasons why the Brewers will consider trading away the shortstop—and a few reasons why they shouldn’t. We'll treat it like point-counterpoint.

Trade Him: He Costs A Lot of Money
As I mentioned earlier, Adames is arbitration-eligible for the final time this winter. According to MLB Trade Rumors, Adames is projected to make $12.4 million in 2024. It may not seem like much, but given how many holes the Brewers have on their roster, they could use that money elsewhere.

That’s nothing against the player; he is one of the better shortstops in MLB. The questions are whether the Brewers can realistically bid to keep him against much richer teams in larger markets, and (if the answer to that is no) whether trading Adames would free up money they could spend well to get better for 2024, in addition to the long-term value of whatever prospects they acquire.

Should the Crew trade Adames, whoever gets him will be in charge of paying, and the Brewers will have more to spend. They can use it to sign extensions within their organization like they did with Jackson Chourio, or they can have a few more dollars with which to reel in a free agent or two to plug holes.

Even if the money isn’t used on the roster, there are places behind the scenes that can benefit from it. Areas such as scouting and player development could all benefit from the extra cash. Whatever they use it for, smart teams find good ways to spend extra money, and Matt Arnold has proved himself a smart team runner.

Keep Him: They Can Afford Him
If the Brewers would have kept the likes of Mark Canha, Brandon Woodruff, Rowdy Tellez, and all the other players they declined to keep this offseason, the projected payroll at this point of the offseason would have been around $150 million, which would be the highest in franchise history. Instead, the team is currently at a projected $98.5 million, including Adames’s projected arbitration award, according to Spotrac.com.

Chourio’s contract, although worth up to $142 million over 10 years, is back-loaded; he’ll only make $2 million in 2024.

If the Brewers still intend to compete next season, they may stick to the $120 million range. This would mean the team already has $20-30 million to work with. The Crew have enough money to not only keep Adames, but consider extending him. If the front office decides to move on from Burnes, they could dip into the free-agent market and bring someone in to replace him, or fill a hole elsewhere on the roster

Trade Him: His Value is Still High
If the Brewers are using their money to try to keep the young guys around for a while, then Adames will still cost a bit on the free-agent market. Looking ahead into the 2024-25 offseason, there are very few shortstops available. Adames is the youngest of the bunch and by far the most valuable, provided he has a strong season.

If Adames is looking for a long-term deal, it would probably be for six or seven years at around $25 million per. If that sounds high, it’s around the same amount Javier Baez and Dansby Swanson are making. If the Brewers think they can’t afford a deal like that, maybe trading away Adames is their best option. Whether that team uses him as a rental or plans to keep him longer, $12.4 million is a cheaper tag now than it will be in a year.

The Brewers will get back a few prospects, but not anything crazy. Maybe if they package him with Burnes, the haul of prospects would be better. Then we’ll see, in a few years, if any of those prospects break through the farm system.

Keep him: Lack of Interest
It’s funny to think we are discussing why it’s a good idea to trade Adames and why a team may like keeping the shortstop, yet we’ve barely heard anything about him being on the move.

The only things we’ve heard thus far are that the Brewers are making everyone available and they want to stay competitive. We also have heard both the Dodgers and the Braves have had interest in trading for a power hitter. Better yet, both are looking to get a starting pitcher. So a package deal isn't entirely out of the question in either case.

However, the Braves recently picked up David Fletcher in a trade with the Angels and may not need another infielder. The Dodgers also said their starting shortstop, at least for now, will be Gavin Lux. The only true noise that’s being heard from the Adames trade rumors are a potential package with Burnes. If Burnes is dealt to a team who’s not interested in Adames, then the value the Brewers get back won’t be as big.

The market hasn’t heated up for Adames, which could mean there are simply few teams interested. With little interest, there’s no bidding war which could lead to lower-end, lottery-ticket prospects. The Brewers could be better off holding onto Adames and (if he puts up great numbers) offering him a qualifying offer, so as to get a draft pick back from the team who signs him. If he isn’t putting up spectacular numbers, they could try to bring him back on a short-term contract.

Of course, if the team isn’t performing well, they could also trade Adames midseason, but once Opening Day slides by, Adames becomes a pure rental, and any acquiring team can't extend the qualifying offer to him. If the value isn’t there, then, they might as well keep him for one last season in Milwaukee.

Trade Him: They Have Infield Depth
The moves the Brewers organization have already made this offseason are interesting, to say the least. Besides Adames, they have Brice Turang, Andruw Monasterio and Owen Miller who can all play the infield positions. That was before the season ended. Since then, the club has claimed infielder Vinny Capra on waivers and traded for Oliver Dunn, from the Phillies. Both of these players are on the 40-man roster. It seems the team might not be done adding infielders, either.

Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Brewers are one of a handful of teams interested in utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa. There is also potential for the Brewers to add infield prospect Tyler Black to the 40-man roster. If all (or any) of those come to fruition, the Crew could be building up sufficient depth to let them move on from Adames. Should he be on the move, Turang could move over to his natural position at short, Miller or Black can play second base and Monasterio could play the hot corner. Capra and Dunn could both start in the minors and be called up when necessary.

Depending on what the return would be for Adames, the team is already set on a plan without him. This would give some of the younger guys more opportunities to play, as Adames plays almost every single game during the season.

Dealing away Adames would explain why the team is loading up the infield with low-cost, low-risk players. The team has to prepare for the worst, should the fan favorite leave.

Keep Him: They Are Being Competitive
In the end, we all know the plan is for the team to remain competitive and to do whatever they can to win a World Series. We don’t know if that means for this season or for the future, but they just might try to stay in the thick of things.

If the plan is to try to run it back, why would the Brewers want to trade their veteran infielder? Adames has been a main cog for the team, so why get rid of a guy who’s helped you for the last three seasons? The team may be building up depth in the infield, leading us to assume Adames will be on the move. But what if that’s not the player they are looking to offload?

The Brewers' interest in Kiner-Falefa--a right-handed, former Gold Glove winner experience in the outfield and at shortstop, could be telling. With seven outfielders on the 40-man, Black ready to be called up, and the infield loaded with players, why are they interested in IKF?

Monasterio wasn’t utilized in the playoffs at all last season. He was relegated to more of a utility role down the stretch. Sure, the team needs an upgrade at the corner positions, but what’s wrong with the young guys? There is nothing wrong with the current team the Brewers have. There just might be more options that we are overlooking. We are not sure how far (if at all) into this retooling the team is going to go.

If the Brewers are going all-in one last time, the team may trade young guys like Monasterio, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, or (dare I say it?) Sal Frelick or Turang to upgrade their current positions. The White Sox are willing to sell, and both Eloy Jimenez and Andrew Vaughn could be available. The Rays are trying to shed payroll and are listening to offers for Isaac Paredes.

However, if the team tears it down a little, then Adames might be on the move, along with Burnes and Devin Williams. The Orioles, Braves, and Dodgers all have decent farm systems and the Brewers would welcome them with open arms. The window is closing for the Brewers to make a run at a championship. Are they going to pry it open, or are they willing to let it close and open it up another day? That all depends on what they do with their popular veteran players.

Brewers fans, look forward to every game this season. Whether it’s with or without Adames, you’re about to see a franchise-defining offseason, and a momentous baseball season after that.

Prediction: Corbin Burnes gets traded, but Adames sticks around a little longer…for now.

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[alwz4gbp]

You've gotta trade him.  As evidenced by the Ohtani signing, we can't compete with the "Big Boys" as presently constructed under this system.  That deal has changed the game.  Time to do a quick reboot and change of philosophy.  That philosophy being long term contracts, like Churio's, to unproven talent.  Its just gotta be that way for the little guys.  Atlanta seems to be way ahead of the curve in that aspect, however they do have the cash that allows some mistakes, Arnold does not have that luxury.

Trade Burnes, Adames and Williams for HIGH end youngsters since quantity doesn't help us.  They're already well on their way to having a very solid core with Sal, Mitchell, Churio etc.  Throw in Black, Yelich and Contreras and you've got something to build on.  There is absolutely no sense in keeping those 3, only to watch them walk at the end of the season because the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox etc want them, leaving us with a lone draft pick.  

Trade one of the 3 for a stud corner infielder (Hello Mayo) and pitching, pitching, pitching with the other 2.  If we only come away with 3 players, so be it.  But they will be quality players and ready to contribute immediately.  Give it a year to come together and it'll be a lot of fun to watch.  

Just my thoughts .

[Doug B]

Yes. For Gavin Lux. 

[Trax]

I don't like the idea of trading young guns that are under long term control unless we return the same at different positions of need.

I'm all for trading quality vets who we are about to lose, but only if we get fair return.

That's what it comes down to.  Trade Burnes and/or Adames if you get fair return, otherwise keep them.  For now.

 

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

Now is the time to trade him. Best value to be received as they move further into the youth transition. They need more pop in the bats in the infield. If they get more power they could then move Turang to SS. We can't have 3-4 players hitting in the low 200's like last year. More power in the infield opens up shortstop for  Turang's superior defensive skills. Maybe he makes a second year  jump with his offense. Bottom line is to trade Willie.