Now's the Time for the Brewers to Add a Starting Pitcher

[Ryan Pollak]

The Milwaukee Brewers are a different team than they were a year ago. With a lot of questions for the rotation, it might be time to add one of the remaining free-agent starters.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Well, here we are again, talking about the remaining starting pitching candidates. Since the 5 mid-tier starting pitchers’ article that went live last week, not much has changed. Brad Keller has now joined the White Sox, and former Brewer Eric Lauer signed with the Pirates. That’s pretty much it.

That means the likes of Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, Noah Syndergaard, and Jake Odorizzi are still hoping to sign with a team before the season starts. While most of these guys are past their prime seasons, they can still be great additions to a starting rotation. Are the Brewers going to make the call?

We’ve already acknowledged why the Brewers should be against adding one of these guys. But is it really the right decision? Here are the reasons why the Brewers should add one of these starting pitchers before the start of the season.

Uncertain Rotation
Whether you see it in the comments of these stories or on social media, this reason for signing a pitcher is everywhere. Entering spring training, the Brewers had two pitchers who were considered locks for the rotation: Freddy Peralta and Wade Miley. The rest is a little hazy.

After Carlos Rodriguez was reassigned to minor-league camp (assuming it was the pitcher, not the outfielder (we're pretty sure)), the team was left with six pitchers who could potentially take the remaining three spots in the rotation. Those guys are Jakob Junis, Colin Rea, Aaron Ashby, Joe Ross, DL Hall and Robert Gasser.

While it is a small sample size, it's concerning that the pitchers listed above have given up 20 runs in 28 innings pitched (6.43 ERA). This doesn’t include Peralta’s eight runs in 5 2/3 innings pitched. It’s also worth noting that Miley has yet to throw a pitch in a spring training game at the time of this writing.

On Sunday afternoon, Pat Murphy didn’t exactly confirm Junis would be part of the rotation after a strong outing. But according to our very own Jack Stern, Ross and Bryse Wilson were names mentioned as players who could be in “bulk roles” like Junis during the season.

There is great potential with these players, and multiple roles for players are a good thing. But the stats and the variety of roles could also mean they don’t know what they want to do. If they add a player like Lorenzen to the two-year deal for which he's been hoping, the organization will have a player they can be certain about in the rotation.

Young, Expendable Roster
There are a lot of benefits of having a young roster. The biggest reason is the minor-league options. There are more players on this roster who have options than players who don't. On top of that, most of these guys have multiple options left.

There are also up-and-coming prospects, like Gasser, who are ready for the show and who aren’t even on the 40-man roster. The organization doesn’t have to decide on these guys just yet. Adding another player should concern these players, but it could scare those with no minor league options.

If the Brewers are to sign a player to a major-league contract, they will have to remove someone from the 40-man roster. Likely, it would be a player lower on the pecking order, and not one who would create a major financial deadweight. There is always a player or two who will be on the bubble. If I had to guess, the players could be Thyago Vieira and Vinny Capra.

As of late, the pitchers that have come off the board have signed minor-league deals. It’s a good way to warm up a late signing in the minors while giving more time for the organization to loosen up the roster. Unless they want a multiyear deal, this could be the way to go for the Brewers.

A player like Syndergaard would take a deal like this. He could pitch a few games in what’s left of spring training, then have an outing or two in Nashville before getting selected. With the uncertainties there and multiple roles to assign, it might be the best route for the Crew.

It’s Still Affordable
One of the biggest concerns about the Brewers making offseason transactions is the amount of money on the payroll. Heck, some people to this day think they don’t have this type of money right now because of their small market. Those people aren’t exactly wrong, but the team could have more money than people think.

According to FanGraphs, the Brewers have around a $110-million projected payroll, which is $15 million less than their 2023 payroll. I’m not saying the Brewers are willing to shell out a full $15 million to a pitcher. That's not far shy of Jordan Montgomery money, at this point. But they can spend a fraction of it on a mid-tier pitcher.

With it being late in spring training, fringy starting pitchers are unlikely to require even $10 million in annual salary. Even at the high end, the Brewers could work with that and still have room to make midseason moves. However, the more money, the more confidence they have in that pitcher. None of the new additions will have minor league options, so they’ll have to be darn sure they will benefit the team.

Déjà Vu
This isn’t really a reason why they should add a pitcher, but rather a reminder that the team could add a veteran arm late in the offseason process, and why we know that for certain. Oddly enough, it wouldn’t be the first time the organization opted to sign a veteran pitcher to their starting rotation in March.

Back in 2013, the Brewers were in the middle ground. Two years removed from a deep playoff run and uncertain how the year would go, they still had Yovani Gallardo and a couple of pitchers who showed promise but hadn’t had a lot of time to prove themselves. Among these pitchers were Wily Peralta, Chris Narveson, Marco Estrada and Mike Fiers.

We all know how well these arms turned out, but the Brewers didn’t have the power of hindsight like we do now. Just when you thought the rotation was set, the Crew added a veteran arm toward the end of spring training: Kyle Lohse.

He was a 34-year-old who rejected the $13.3-million qualifying offer, coming off his best season at the time. Lohse accepted a three-year, $33-million deal a week prior to Opening Day. Who was his agent at the time? Scott Boras.

Now it’s 2024, and we might be witnessing the same thing. If this history repeats itself, then the Brewers would sign Montgomery to a three-year, $54-million deal in a couple of weeks. With Montgomery wanting to play with a small market team, there might be a sliver of hope, although the price would surely be higher, or there would be opt-outs involved to make the deal more player-friendly.

It doesn’t have to be the hottest arm on the market. It just needs to be a proven arm that can give the rotation a security blanket. Any of the names mentioned at the top of this story are worthy of a contract with an organization. Maybe the Brewers are that team.

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Where do you stand on this argument? Do you think the Brewers will add another arm to the rotation? Are there other pitchers you’d like to see mentioned? Let us know in the comments.

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[groyce]

I’m wondering now if their plan for the pitching is well sorted. Peralta and a cast of question marks swirling around the articulated philosophy of maybe we’ll do this unless we do that doesn’t foster confidence.

[Trax]

I've been saying this for a couple weeks now.  Fully agree if a reasonable deal can be made for a viable MLB starting pitcher. 

[dsid74]

The single biggest issue in my opinion...it's hard to see how they can cover a seasons worth of innings with this group.  Most can't be expected to deliver more than 120-140 innings. They need another starter who can deliver at least 150-180 quality innings.  

I think Rea gets the 3 hole and the guys without options get a roster spot (Junis, Wilson, Ross) to start the season.  Ross and Junis can piggyback to hold down another slot.  Wilson reprises his 2023 role.  

That leaves Hall, Ashby and Gasser for the 5th spot.  Ashby could probably use an extra month in low stress mode (AAA) to work his way back and they will want to delay Gasser's arbitration clock.

I know they are hoping Hall jumps up and grabs the last spot.  But even if he does, it would be best case if he delivered 150-160 innings.  By all accounts this would be a stretch.  

Additionally, Miley, who already is iffy, shouldn't be counted on for more than 160 innings himself.  

So if you squint real hard, you can see a path.  But everyone needs to stay healthy and everyone needs to play up to expectations.  Gasser and Misiorowski would be the depth pieces in case of injury, but probably best served if they follow the pattern of Burnes, Woody, Peralta and Hall and are initially used out bullpen.

Signing another starter who can fill 150-180 innings would provide a degree of wiggle room that is sorely lacking now.  It would also allow them to deploy a 6 man rotation, thereby reducing the workload and stretching the contributions of guys like Miley, Hall, Junis, Ross and Ashby, who can't be expected to make 30 starts this year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, dsid74 said:

The single biggest issue in my opinion...it's hard to see how they can cover a seasons worth of innings with this group.  Most can't be expected to deliver more than 120-140 innings. They need another starter who can deliver at least 150-180 quality innings.  

I think Rea gets the 3 hole and the guys without options get a roster spot (Junis, Wilson, Ross) to start the season.  Ross and Junis can piggyback to hold down another slot.  Wilson reprises his 2023 role.  

That leaves Hall, Ashby and Gasser for the 5th spot.  Ashby could probably use an extra month in low stress mode (AAA) to work his way back and they will want to delay Gasser's arbitration clock.

I know they are hoping Hall jumps up and grabs the last spot.  But even if he does, it would be best case if he delivered 150-160 innings.  By all accounts this would be a stretch.  

Additionally, Miley, who already is iffy, shouldn't be counted on for more than 160 innings himself.  

So if you squint real hard, you can see a path.  But everyone needs to stay healthy and everyone needs to play up to expectations.  Gasser and Misiorowski would be the depth pieces in case of injury, but probably best served if they follow the pattern of Burnes, Woody, Peralta and Hall and are initially used out bullpen.

Signing another starter who can fill 150-180 innings would provide a degree of wiggle room that is sorely lacking now.  It would also allow them to deploy a 6 man rotation, thereby reducing the workload and stretching the contributions of guys like Miley, Hall, Junis, Ross and Ashby, who can't be expected to make 30 starts this year.

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[jay87shot]

Rae and Junis looked good there last starts, I think at this point they are near locks. That leaves Ashby, Hall, Ross, Bryce Wilson, Gasser, maybe Bryan Hudson (seems to be getting stretched out) as the next options. I think the team really wants Hall to get a rotation spot after the big trade. Wilson and Hudson have been good in spring, I doubt Hudson makes the opening day roster. A 6 man, piggyback situation, or opener all make sense for now. Peralta, Miley, Rae, Junis, Hall is fine by be, since we have the upside youth as the season goes on. I would rather just save the money and if we are in contention at the deadline trade for a young controllable top of the rotation arm or even a expiring vet like Beiber.