A Need For Speed: How Many Extra Wins Can the Brewers Get From Stealing Bases?

[Jake McKibbin]

The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the ground running on the basepaths this season, with an aggressive approach yielding 16 stolen bases and just two outs in their first eight games. How much will this impact their wins total at the season's end?

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

Increased team speed and athleticism has impelled an increase in aggressiveness from the Brewers so far in 2024. With a selection of personnel capable of swiping bags, and after seeing what havoc teams like the Diamondbacks and the Reds caused last season, it seems the Brewers are determined to tap into another source of value. The question is, how impactful will this be? 

Personnel
In 2023, Craig Counsell had Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Owen Miller and Joey Wiemer as the team's leading base stealers, with the final three struggling to get on base enough to use that speed. This season, they’ve added a 40-steal threat in Jackson Chourio, a first baseman (in Jake Bauers) who has swiped one so far, and replaced Wiemer with Sal Frelick (fairly similar) and Miller with Oliver Dunn (who is markedly faster). 

Garrett Mitchell may return in the middle of May to add further potential on the basepaths to this mix, but for now, the combination of Chourio, Yelich, Turang, Frelick, Dunn and the occasional effort from the likes of Bauers and Willy Adames can make them a dynamic team in that facet.

Can They Get On Base?
Perhaps the biggest question mark, in this instance, is whether or not Dunn, Chourio, Turang and Frelick can continue to get on base enough to use their feet. Turang is showing early promise in his bat-to-ball skills, though there is likely to be some regression as his BABIP evens out. Chourio has also been slightly fortunate with infield singles, whereas Frelick has been on the other end of that and hasn't gotten the reward for some of his well-hit balls in the last seven days. Dunn is squaring up the ball, but also sports a 29% strikeout rate on the year to date.

Currently, this quartet are all quite fresh in the major leagues, meaning a lot of variance is to be expected in their performances, and their combined on-base rate is an above-average .350. If they can keep this north of .330 over a full season, there will be a lot of havoc to come from all four speedsters, and that volume of opportunities will translate into more sheer runs and wins added.

Efficiency
The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks were both elite base-stealing teams last year, but they had very different values as a result of how often each was caught. The Reds stole 190 bases, but got caught 48 times, a success rate south of the league's average (which was in excess of 80%), whereas the D’Backs stole 166 bases but were caught just 26 times, good for an 86% success rate. 

The reason this is important is because general calculations estimate a player caught stealing to lose double the runs one successful stolen base creates. FanGraphs says every stolen base is worth 0.3 runs, whereas to be caught stealing is worth -0.6 runs. The 2023 Brewers stole bases at an 82% rate, a fairly middling (though still value-positive) percentage, but have started the season getting caught just twice in 18 attempts, for an 89% success rate. They have faced some lesser arms in doing so, but to picture them finishing the season with an 85% or better rate would be entirely feasible.

How Much Value Does This Add?
In 2023, the Brewers were just six runs above average for their baserunning exploits, whereas Arizona totaled 17.5 while attempting fewer stolen bases than the Brewers likely will this season (Corbin Carroll was almost a third of their threat on his own). Let's make the following assumptions:

• The Brewers are attempting to steal at a rate similar to that at which the Reds attempted to do so last season, as there will be some regression from their current rate of over two per game. A little over 1.5 tries per game would equate to around 250 steal attempts this season.
• A success rate of 85% on stolen base attempts
• The value of one steal being 0.3 runs, with a caught stealing being -0.6 runs (per FanGraphs)
• Using the Pythagorean runs calculator that suggests just under nine runs scored would equate to a one-win swing (ie 81-81 to 82-80 record) based on 2023 numbers.

The Brewers would, then, successfully steal 213 bases and get caught just 37 times next season. Per FanGraphs's method, that would bring them to 42 runs in total on the season, an improvement of 22 runs from last season.

Using the Pythagorean method (which doesn’t account for situational baserunning and stealing), that would estimate the Brewers have an additional 2.5 wins coming this season, compared to last year, not factoring in the use of this speed to take extra bases on singles or avoid double plays.

All in all, it seems the Brewers may have found a way to gain significantly around the margins, and that can only be a good omen for this season. It’s one big change for which the projection systems preseason may not have adequately accounted, and has certainly been advantageous so far in their cluster of close wins to open the season. We can hedge a bit on all of this, understanding that the league might find new ways to hold runners better under the new rules than they did in 2023 and that the attempt rate might thus come down even further from where it is now, but some substantial value remains for the Crew, even so.

What do you think of the Brewers' new approach on the bases? Did you expect it to be worth this much extra value? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Bratwithspecialsauce]

Theories. That's all it is. Do stolen bases help? Heck, yes! If the success rate is over 75%, you run. Once its established your team can run successfully, you're in the pitchers head. HE  has to alter his game, opening up hitting possibilities.

Also, with more fastballs destined to be thrown, a bunt can be devastating because your defense is back.

Trying to manage with stats has been a mixed blessing. The misinterpretation of stats and the predictability of managers (CC being one of the worst offenders) married to analytics makes stats just as dubious as "gut feelings". 

The effect of speed is NOT totally quantifiable by a spreadsheet.

The White Sox had a pitcher named Stan Bahnsen who was a solid pitcher. Had 6 consecutive seasons over 200 innings and had a 20 win season (41 starts!).

My point is that he was a quality starter for a long time....BUT  with men on base he was a different pitcher. If they could run, you said "uh oh, here we go".

You only knew that if you watched games (Fun side fact, Stan won 18 the next year after he won 20 and had a LOSING record. 21 losses). He was a career .500 pitcher because he often crumbled under base runner pressure. 

He was the extreme, but he makes the point. Speed alone won't win a World Series, but like bunting used in the right spots, it keeps the defense honest and opens holes for hitters.

I enjoy reading Bill James analysis, but those treating it with biblical adherence when managing rarely go all the way. 

The best lineups blend speed, power and on base reliability.

 

 

 

 

[Kripes - Brewers]

Stats are interesting, but they don't tell the whole story. If you hadn't watched that game last night, you'd look at the box score and think Ashby and Ortiz had a rough game. Ashby did struggle, but the guy who lost that game last night was Hoskins. He had an atrocious night at 1B defensively. I'd have given him all of the errors and added one for alligator arming that shot along the line around the 4th inning that allowed runs too. All of those passed balls were catch-able - not perfect, but very catch-able. I can't recall seeing a pro play that poorly. It was brutal.

This is a game, and it is meant to be fun for both the players and fans. If it helps you understand what's going on, good for you. Just remember to watch and enjoy what these athletes can do.

[Jason Wang]

jake while writing this article

[Jake McKibbin]

20 hours ago, Kripes - Brewers said:

Stats are interesting, but they don't tell the whole story. If you hadn't watched that game last night, you'd look at the box score and think Ashby and Ortiz had a rough game. Ashby did struggle, but the guy who lost that game last night was Hoskins. He had an atrocious night at 1B defensively. I'd have given him all of the errors and added one for alligator arming that shot along the line around the 4th inning that allowed runs too. All of those passed balls were catch-able - not perfect, but very catch-able. I can't recall seeing a pro play that poorly. It was brutal.

This is a game, and it is meant to be fun for both the players and fans. If it helps you understand what's going on, good for you. Just remember to watch and enjoy what these athletes can do.

Absolutely! I think that's the beauty of sports, and especially baseball, it comes down to winning little moments in each game, and who takes their chances.

Over a 162 game season little incremental differences can be big, and it's one reason I really wanted to dig into this to see how much it could pay off, but it's all anticipatory.