Are Tyler Black and Joey Wiemer Pushing For A Major League Promotion?

[Jake McKibbin]

Both Joey Wiemer and Tyler Black had legitimate chances to make the opening day roster, have they pushed their case in Triple A for a promotion to the majors? And what doe their timeline look like?

Unfortunately, neither of the two players most ready for a callup have gotten off to hot starts in terms of what you would want to see from them, although Tyler Black is hitting .304/.392/.435. Joey Wiemer has faced some bad luck on batted balls, but is hitting just .120/.214/.160 with some flaky defense to boot. It’s safe to say neither are forcing the front office into difficult decisions. What’s been happening under the surface during the first week?

Tyler Black
A highly intriguing prospect for the Brewers, Tyler Black’s array of bat to ball skills, sneaky power and speed to burn have seen him soar to the number 44 prospect in baseball per MLB pipeline. This season hasn’t started well however with Black's surface numbers belying a surprising amount of swing and miss in his stroke. Here are Black’s stats for the first week of 2024 compared with 2023:

• Chase Rate - 32.7% (2024) vs 18.5% (2023)
• Whiff Rate - 33.3% vs 22.4%
• Swinging Strike - 15.2% vs 9.8%
• Hard Hit rate - 41.2% vs 32.5%
• Sweet Spot Rate - 52.9% vs 23.3%
• Foul Rate - 28.9% vs 43%

All in all, although the contact rates haven’t been close to the levels Black has shown over the last few years, the quality of contact has been considerably better. He has been quite feast or famine in how he’s hit the ball, from weak topped balls to strongish line drives, but he hasn’t been able to stay in the at bat by fouling off pitches and waiting on something to hit. 

With Black, this appears to be a small sample size thing, though one that bears watching, and the Brewers will be keeping an eye on the hard hit rate and the whiff rates quite closely when it comes to assessing his readiness. A real strength of his seems to be his ability to graft and grind his way on base, and it’s reassuring to see that even when he’s struggling a little at the plate, he’s still posting elite on base percentages.

Another point to note for Black is, per our amazing minor league coverage team here at Brewer Fanatic his defense at first base has been really strong so far this season, showing good range and adept hands. Blacks’ biggest weakness defensively is his arm, with a strange throwing motion that can hinder him being negated by the lack of throwing required from first base. His speed will give him the range to be above average here, and it’s nice to note his strength so far in what is still a relatively new position. 

Black will have to prove he can sustain consistent exit velocities over the season, and that his power outbreak last season was no fluke in a position that demands that thump. A likely timeline is probably nearer the all star break depending on the form of Jake Bauers or injury permitting. 

Joey Wiemer
Wiemer seems to be the very definition of “forcing it”, having worked intensely during the off season on calming his swing path. The results thus far have been exactly what you’d expect from something that is still getting bedded in, with occasional flashes of monstered balls alongside a lot of swing and miss and poor quality at bats. Some standout statistics in the first week for Wiemer are (note that Wiemer’s 2023 stats include his time in the majors):

• Whiff Rate - 31.9% (2024) vs 33.2% (2023)
• Chase Rate - 26.3% vs 29.1%
• Launch Angle - 4.4° vs 9.1°
• Avg Exit Velocity - 91 mph vs 89.4 mph

A big reason for Wiemer’s changes in the off season was to minimize the poor contact and be more consistent at the plate. He has an xBA of .200 and xSLG of .280 so far while still striking out at a 25% clip. So far this season that hasn;t really happened, and there is a big concern in and amongst this.

Wiemer in college struggled to harness the athletic capabilities in his frame due to lower launch angles, resulting in more gap to gap power than you would like. The Brewers managed to unlock this power by elevating the ball further, but there is a slight worry that throughout spring training and so far in the minor leagues Wiemer has not managed to hit as many fly balls as Brewer fans have become accustomed to. Wiemer can be an electric difference maker but he has to keep hitting fly balls, otherwise his ceiling will drop rapidly.

Defensively he hasn’t looked himself so far either, with a couple of plays in Wednesday night’s game that were incredibly unlike him including dropping what was quite a routine foul fly ball and allowing an unearned run on the next pitch.

It may take time for his changes to bed in and see just what the Brewers have got for Wiemer but the good news is they can afford to give him plenty of playing time to bed those changes in with such a stacked outfield in the major leagues. It’s likely that Wiemer won’t be up until there is a consistent uptick in his batted ball numbers, and that in itself may mean a full year in the minors barring injury. That timeline is entirely okay with a player as talented as Joey Wiemer, who when polished can be a hitter to fear for the Brewers in 2025. Given his need for at bats, and the form of Brewer Hicklen who has carried on from an excellent spring training, potentially pushes Wiemer back even in the case of an emergency until he's absolutely ready.

What do you think of the two young starlets on the Nashville Sounds roster? have you any concerns, or perhaps a more optimistic outlook on their timelines? Let us know in the comments below

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[eddiemathews]

Well, Black would almost assuredly be better than Hoskins defensively, and most likely better than Bauers at the plate. Probably next year unless someone gets hurt or really stinks.

[wallus]

Play Black at first and get hit ready to go once we release Bauers and/or there is an injury.