Monday Was a Great Glimpse of How Robert Gasser Can Be a Star

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Milwaukee Brewers won a Memorial Day pitchers' duel and tightened their hold on first place in the NL Central. In the process, their southpaw starter demonstrated his path to stardom--which looks a whole lot like that of the hurler with whom he was matched up.

Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK

Of the 186 pitchers who have faced at least 60 batters as a starter this year, only two have thrown a higher percentage of their pitches on the inner third of the plate (or off the plate inside) than the Brewers' Robert Gasser, who owns a dazzling stat line (1.96 ERA, no home runs, 13 strikeouts and just one walk in 23 innings pitched) over his first four career outings. Gasser has dominated opponents (even if he hasn't yet missed many bats) by pounding them inside, and it's no coincidence that he and the other six pitchers who top the leaderboard in working inside are all lefties. A lefty starter has to be able to live inside. Gasser does.

So, too, does Gasser's opposite number Monday afternoon, the Cubs' Justin Steele. Chicago's ace wrestled Gasser to a draw, even though the Crew went on to win in fairly convincing fashion, and while it was the first time he put together a full start that looked so good this year, Steele was only continuing the brilliance he demonstrated throughout much of 2022 and 2023. In 60 starts since the start of 2022, Steele has pitched 325 innings and posted a 3.24 ERA. He finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting last season and made the All-Star team, all with a cutter-slider mix that comes up far short of overpowering opposing batters.

Gasser throws a tick harder than Steele, but only when absolutely reaching back to empty the tank can he even scrape 95 miles per hour. His pitch mix is different from Steele's: it's deeper but a bit more conventional. Like Steele, he also adds some deception to the formula, in his case by using a low and inscrutable release point that makes his fastball look a bit flatter and livelier than it actually is. Most importantly, like Steele (who is right behind him on the list referred to above), Gasser attacks hitters inside, and he fills up the strike zone.

Nobody does it quite like these two, and that's why they each have more success than you'd guess by looking solely at their raw stuff. Stuffing the zone is still exceptionally valuable, even in the era of dangerous power hitters stuffing every lineup card. Gasser has come to the majors and gone right after the best hitters in the world, with a fearlessness and a deftness few other pitchers can muster. Getting to compare and contrast him with Steele for an afternoon was a revelatory treat.

Like Steele, Gasser just has an unusual comfort when it comes to working across the plate and locating everything he throws to the glove side. Steele, of course, has that cutting fastball that naturally steers its way there, but Gasser's four-seamer and sinker have much more run than that. He also utilizes a changeup, with plenty of run of its own. He's special because, despite that movement profile, he can hit his spots to the glove side, against both lefties and righties. Here's a chart drawn from Baseball Savant, showing the pitch types and locations he utilizes against right-handed batters.

Here's the same chart for him against lefties.

Eventually, he might run into a rough patch, if and when he goes through a stretch of batting his mechanics and being unable to locate the ball as finely on the glove side. So far, he hasn't shown the facility he'll eventually need when attacking the arm side of the plate, and as hitters adjust, they might force him to use more of the zone. For now, though, he's dominating opposing batters, by going right after them with confidence and unique precision. 

It's not entirely unreasonable (though perhaps a bit optimistic) to hope that Gasser will soon be in the down-ballot vote-getter category when it comes to the Cy Young. He's different from Steele, but the confidence of his approach and the flawlessness of his execution make them comparable. Unlike Steele, his health track record is pretty good, and he piled up a lot of innings last season in the minor leagues. Even on a team with aspirations that stretch into October, Gasser could be a credible number-two starter--perhaps the only thing the Brewers were theoretically missing, until now.

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[jay87shot]

Gasser is looking like a good chance to be a solid #3 with some #2 upside if he can strikeout a few more hitters. 

Baseball savant list him throwing a 4 seam fastball and sinker both at 93 mph and 23 % of the time each. Does anyone know if that is just the fastball twice, I don't remember him having a sinker listed as a prospect or noticing it the couple games I've been able to watch.