What Does Their Trade Deadline Say About Brewers' Plans for the Final Months?

[Jake McKibbin]

The Brewers didn’t have a flashy deadline by any means, but it may still have shaped their roster construction to finish the year.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

With many discussions going on behind the scenes, Matt Arnold decided to stick with the players they had offensively, while bolstering their pitching ranks with acquisitions of Frankie Montas, Aaron Civale and Nick Mears in the month of July. Mears is a Stuff+ darling with strong recent results, while the Brewers will be hoping they can refine Montas and Civale’s arsenals to find their promise of yesteryear. Combined with some high-level players returning from the IL, the Brewers' roster is stronger than it was prior to July, despite some fresh injuries. However, the continued lack of an ace is concerning for a team with strong playoff ambitions. Some roles are getting further clarified, and may present the Brewers with an opportunity to grow stronger as a unit rather than with individual strength.

The Brewers Value A Healthy Garrett Mitchell
The Brewers were mostly looking to trade from positions of strength at the deadline, due to 40-man roster restrictions and a desire to keep their prospect pool strong. They needed to free up spaces for any new acquisitions, and as such, the strength in depth of both their outfielders and relievers seemed to be a good place to free up that space. One name specifically quoted by Robert Murray was Garrett Mitchell, who has had a checkered injury history with the Brewers and continues to outperform expected metrics and put up strong results.

So far this season, Mitchell has a .790 OPS, and has demonstrated an improved chase rate (11%) that has led to a 12.3% walk rate. He's been lofting the ball more regularly against right-handers. After a short adjustment period, since Jul. 14, Mitchell has hit 36.8% of his batted balls in the launch-angle sweet spot, tagged 47.4% of his batted balls at 95 miles per hour or better, and averaged 90 mph in exit velocity against righties, when you exclude bunt attempts. There were major concerns around his profile coming into the season, but he’s beginning to alleviate some of these, with that chase rate being a real boost. He has as much upside as almost anyone in the Brewers organization if it all clicks, and his balance of bat, speed and defense has been very valuable at the bottom of the lineup. The question as always is around the sustainability of his production, given the difficulty he has in staying healthy.

Mitchell still has more swing-and-miss in the strike zone than you would prefer, much like Jake Bauers. However, his performances of late may have convinced the Brewers that they shouldn’t sell low on him just yet. There’s a big decision regarding the outfield logjam to be sorted in the offseason, even after Joey Wiemer was traded, but for now (and with Yelich's back injury uncertainty), they decided to stand pat and keep Mitchell for the strong side of the platoon, at least. They should probably avoid putting him in against lefties, where he’s struggled more often to elevate the ball, but as a strong-side platoon member, he’s proving his worth. Put together that speed, the defense and (so far) above-average performance at the plate, and the Brewers decided that was enough to keep him for the final two months.

He may still be tradable come the Winter Meetings, but if he can stay healthy and retain this level of production, that value will increase astronomically from where it is now.

Jake Bauers Is Their Left-Handed Power Bat, Not Tyler Black
I know many people thought Tyler Black would be up in the majors by now--likely at first base, in place of Jake Bauers. However, while Black hasn’t set the world alight in Triple A this year, Bauers has actually been quite solid.

A lot of this may come down to the Brewers' offensive needs. They don't hit the ball over the fence quite as often as they'd like. Bauers has shown some real pop in his bat. He's good both at generating exit velocity and at lifting the ball in the process, while rounding out his profile with the improved chase rate that’s led to his .367 OBP since Jun. 1. 

It’s also important to note that Bauers and Black have a similar floor in some ways, given they both tend to post strong on-base percentages, but their differences come in what happens outside of that. Black has significantly better contact rates, but hasn’t got close to Bauers's power, while Bauers doesn’t possess Black’s ability to make contact with the ball. Some may point to Black’s 10 home runs this year as evidence of his power, coming predominantly from pulling balls down the line, but the step up from Triple-A to the majors is bigger than it’s ever been. Expecting anything like that home run production from Black in MLB by the end of September would be folly. He's already struggling to hit the ball hard with regularity. That may come through more at some point, but for now, he's not ready to be an impact player on the major league roster. For now the Brewers are sticking with Bauers as almost their sole slugging lefty with Yelich out. 

The State Of The Back End Starters, And A Six-Man Rotation
With the acquisition of Frankie Montas and the return of DL Hall and Joe Ross from injury, the Brewers have a number of arms available to pick up the end of their rotation. The question of whether they should go to a six-man rotation or even the volume of long relief options in their bullpen becomes more pressing now. Montas is the only one of the group who hasn’t been a reliever in recent times, and it seems fairly safe to say the Brewers see him as a backend starter.

The front office and Pat Murphy have also been adamant all year about liking Joe Ross as a starter. However, there are flaws in his limited arsenal that get exposed the second and third times through the order. Then there’s Hall, who found extreme success out of the bullpen in 2023 for the Orioles, able to add a couple of ticks on the fastball that made him elite but that also makes him so tantalizing as a starter.

First up is Joe Ross, and our own Jack Stern summed it up pretty well:

Ross has a very good sinker/slider combo that can potentially add further velocity with a move to the pen. Both pitches can get outs in either high-leverage or longer relief roles, but there's a real possibility he can be excellent at it. The first time through the order, he’s allowed an OPS of just .600, whereas when he gets to the second time through that number jumps to an .813 OPS. 

He just doesn’t have the variety in his arsenal to be a legitimate starter in the majors, but that’s not to say he can’t be incredibly useful if you give him up to nine hitters. You’ll see the absurd swing-and-miss on his slider (49% whiff rate first time through) and the low damage on his sinker (.491 OPS first time through) play up, and he could be a really useful addition for a couple of innings, given the shorter starts by most of the Brewers rotation. For me, it would be a mistake to keep Ross on as a sixth member of the rotation. You’re losing out on both productivity and value, as well as shortening an already taxed bullpen.

Assuming Montas is penciled in as the fitth starter, let’s turn our attention to Hall, who had perhaps his most promising start of the year. The heater is going to be the reason he succeeds or struggles in the big leagues, and while I’m not fully convinced just yet by the quality of contact it's giving up, it can’t be argued that (shape-wise) it’s a lot better. Averaging another inch of induced vertical break (14”) alongside an effective velocity of 95.1 mph in July, that’s almost two miles per hour higher than his mark in May, it's bringing about better results:

When Hall is getting that level of swing-and-miss on his heater, it may be time to get excited for his return. The question is: Do the Brewers want him starting? Having had some extraordinarily strange barriers popping up while attempting to ramp up his pitch count, Hall's last five outings have had him throwing 62, 61, 57, 49, and 57 pitches, which doesn’t necessarily make you think he’ll be a starting pitching option in the next two weeks or so. 

The velocity is holding well into his starts and the results are promising, but he may also profile better in that long relief role. With injuries in the bullpen of late and the struggles to even retain a healthy rotation at this point, the Brewers may want Hall to continue building up his pitch count in Nashville while being ready to step in at a moment’s notice. He looks like he’s a more effective starter than Ross. If they did go to a six-man rotation, it should be Hall who gets the last place, but there’s a real possibility the Brewers either maintain the two long relievers they currently have and keep Hall in the minors or bring him up as that third option for middle innings. You certainly can’t deny that the Brewers, who place 20th in innings from their starters, need this sort of bulk reliever more than most playoff teams.

Expanding to six starters with Hall could, of course, increase the quality of outings you're getting specifically from Freddy Peralta, thanks to more rest. Then, with the likes of Bryan Hudson and Trevor Megill returning in August, they could have one of the best and most varied bullpens in baseball, with those two alongside Nick Mears, Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps (who's also recently found some form).

The Brewers roster is set for the next few months. There's no external aid incoming. With the first challenge being to lock down their division lead and then look beyond, I firmly believe this is a roster with enough niche pieces that they can excel--if deployed correctly in the coming months. 

What do you think of the decisions regarding Mitchell, Bauers and the back end of the rotation? Do you disagree with what the Brewers are doing? let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[rolafaive]

All it told me was the Brewers will always be that team that talks a good game but never takes that next step to reach the World Series, they are just content filling seats for the owner and making it to the playoffs. As Stearns said they want a bite of the apple each year. They value all their minor leaguers and are afraid to part with them to build a dynamic team, I don't mean for rentals, but for players with team control. Now whether this is the front office or from the owner it is time you show the fans you really are in it to win it, not groom players to sell off to the big clubs, I mean I didn't think Milwaukee was a farm team, but I could be wrong.