Hoby Milner is Making a Strong Push for the Brewers' Playoff Bullpen

[Jack Stern]

He seemed like the odd man out a month ago, but the veteran has put himself back into the conversation with a resurgent September, while other contenders remain on the injured list or in the minor leagues.

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

When the Brewers activated Hoby Milner from the injured list and optioned Bryan Hudson to Triple-A during the first week of September, the move served multiple functions. The club wanted Hudson to work on rediscovering his best stuff in a low-pressure environment. Meanwhile, Milner, who struggled mightily leading up to his IL stint, received one last shot to prove that he could still be an impactful bullpen piece.

The veteran is making good on that opportunity. While Aaron Ashby is the most notable lefty to raise his stock this month and force his way into a key relief role, Milner is quietly trending in the right direction himself. His outings have not been as flashy, but he, too, has become increasingly likely to land in Milwaukee’s playoff bullpen next week.

Milner has been due for positive regression for months, and it’s arriving at just the right time. In eight appearances since his return, Milner has posted a solid 3.72 ERA in 9 ⅔ innings, but the outcomes he’s generating per pitch and per swing are what matter most in a small sample. On those fronts, he is looking like a quality reliever worth rostering in October.

The 33-year-old has yet to issue a walk since his return, while striking out 31.4% of batters faced, producing a strong 2.56 FIP. Opponents are whiffing on 26.3% of swings, and when they put the ball in play, 56.5% of that contact has been on the ground.

Given how close Milner was to his more effective form from previous seasons, sweeping adjustments were unnecessary. Instead, a couple of minor improvements to his location are leading to more swing-and-miss and pairing nicely with improved fortune.

Avoiding the heart of the plate is essential for Milner, who relies on creating funky angles with his arsenal to overcome unremarkable stuff. His rate of pitches over the white of the plate is lower in September than in any other month this year. He’s also leaning more on his four-seam fastball, enabling him to attack the upper third of the zone more often. That’s the source of most of his newfound whiffs, and it gives opposing hitters more territory to cover within the zone.

Finally, while Milner is throwing strikes at roughly the same rate as he has throughout the season, his sequencing of quality pitches has improved. He’s winning the “race to two” – throwing strike two before ball two – more frequently than he has at any point this year, and he’s making more quality pitches with two strikes.

Split	4FB%	High%	Heart%	0-2 or 1-2%	2-Str Heart%	2-Str AVG
March/April	18.3%	17.7%	23.1%	30.8%	10.0%	.091
May	14.0%	19.5%	23.0%	41.3%	18.1%	.067
June	18.7%	20.0%	27.7%	41.5%	29.2%	.250
July	24.2%	24.7%	23.2%	32.0%	11.3%	.125
August	26.5%	14.7%	26.5%	35.3%	19.0%	.286
September	31.5%	27.3%	20.2%	45.7%	7.1%	.143

Milner is not a lock for the playoff roster, but barring a blow-up outing in the season’s final days, he’s made a legitimate case. He still is not one of Milwaukee’s top leverage arms, but as an effective middle reliever, he is a candidate to cover innings in a deficit or bridge the gap between a short start and the team’s back-end relievers.

Also looming large is that Milner is trending in the right direction as others who once superseded him on Pat Murphy’s bullpen hierarchy remain away from the active roster.

Hudson’s stuff has not improved to the extent the Brewers seemingly desire, so he remains in Triple-A. Rob Zastrzyny’s season is all but officially finished, after a recent transfer to the 60-day injured list. Nick Mears and Bryse Wilson could be activated in Pittsburgh, but face uphill battles with the clock running down.

At this stage, it could be a coin flip between Milner and Hudson for the final bullpen spot, with Mears potentially in the mix as well. The Brewers face some interesting roster decisions in the final days. It would not be shocking to see Milner make the cut, and given the composition of this pitching staff, anyone who makes the playoff roster will be asked to do something important before the team gets very far.

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[Ro Mueller]

Thank you for this. I assume the Hudson ship has sailed or we would have recalled him by now. He got solid results in AAA, but I guess the underlying data don’t favor him.

What about DL Hall? He’s had some up and down performances. Is he an alternative to Milner and Hudson?

[Team Canada]

It's also not a single decision (let's assume they win at least one series); they could potentially swap relievers for the NLDS based on the results of the first 2-3 games.

[Kripes - Brewers]

I don't trust Mears at all. We didn't get to see too much of him. Good heat, but he was getting shelled in every other outing it seemed.

[Jim French Stepstool]

Hudson not responding the way they wanted has opened the door for Milner, and right now he looks like a much better than 50-50 shot to be in the BP next week in the "closer for the starter" role in the 5th-6th inning. Since giving up the HR to the LHH in the Rockies series he's actually located well.

Sometimes IL stints are of the 'phantom' type, and sometimes the break actually is for a legit reason & has positive results.