I get why people might choose the Padres, but if you're asking "who is the team you are more likely to beat," it's 100% the Cubs. Neither's starting staff is great, but the Cubs BP remains a disaster, and we've shown we can keep PCA in check.
We're not trying to get by on the fumes of Freddy Peralta and prayers, we have two legit aces and a darn good team. We shouldn't be afraid of either of those teams.