Exploring Trade Partners For Devin Williams: Texas Rangers

[Jason Wang]

Now that their World Series hangover is (hopefully) over, a new closer could bring the Rangers back to the postseason.

Image courtesy of © David Kohl-Imagn Images

Why They Need Him
The 2023 season was a great one for Texas. They won it all for the first time in franchise history, driven by a bombastic lineup and their expensive middle infield. They headed into 2024 with a full head of steam, and many figured they would continue their newfound success. Jacob DeGrom was slated to return from the IL by the middle of the season, along with a couple of other high-octane hurlers; rookies Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford were two of the most exciting young talents in the sport; and Adolis García looked ready to cement himself as one of the most imposing outfield hitters around. 

Unfortunately, every player this side of Corey Seager regressed meaningfully. The lineup fell from a .790 OPS (3rd in MLB) in 2023 to a .686 OPS (23rd in MLB) this year. The pitching staff wasn’t safe, either, as the team’s rotation similarly went from a 3.96 ERA (7th in MLB) to a 4.35 ERA (21st in MLB). With a record of 27-30 by the end of May, they could never find their footing in the division again and fell out of serious postseason contention rather quickly. In fact, their Pythagorean win/loss record (based on run differential) was 75-87, three wins worse than their eventual record of 78-84, indicating that the final result was actually a bit on the lucky side. 

But the team isn’t done competing. With a top-10 payroll and the core of the team built around the duo of Seager and Marcus Semien, they only have a few more years in their window to remain competitive. Furthermore, they’re losing quite a few players to free agency—mostly pitchers. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, and Andrew Heaney will all be testing the market, in addition to their two most recent closers, Kirby Yates and Jose Leclerc.

Leclerc had been great in 2022 and 2023, posting a 2.96 ERA over 115 ⅔ innings. He wasn’t the main closer in either of those years, but really earned his spot during the team’s World Series run, in which he finished 12 games and earned four saves.  Unable to shoulder the burden of pitching higher-leverage innings during the start of last season, his ERA ballooned to 5.18 by the end of May, coinciding with the team’s broader struggles and he ceded his role to Yates.

A journeyman, Yates has spent his 10-year career with six different major-league teams. His best season was undoubtedly in 2019, when he pitched to a 1.19 ERA and earned an MLB-leading 41 saves, placing him top-10 in Cy Young Award voting. He was immediately thereafter sidelined by elbow injury and a second Tommy John surgery before finally rediscovering his old form with the Rangers in 2024, posting a 1.17 ERA with 33 saves.

Yates was incredible last year, but he’ll be 38 years old by the time 2025 starts and there’s no guarantee that he can stick around at this level for much longer. They could choose to re-sign him for another year and hope that he can repeat his closer success, or they could pursue a younger, more consistent talent in the form of Devin Williams. In a division as competitive as the AL West, it could be the difference between enjoying October baseball from the field or from the cold comfort of their homes. 

What They Have to Offer
Things are not pretty for the future of the franchise, which is all the more reason for the front office to invest in the present. Following the graduation of Langford and Carter, the only MLB Top 100 prospect is infielder Sebastian Walcott (#38), who just cracked Double-A Frisco to end the minor-league season. There are also quite a few top pitching prospects (outside of Kumar Rocker, who is likely off-limits and not really a prospect anymore), like Alejandro Rosario (2.40 ERA over eight starts in High-A Hickory) and Emiliano Teodo (1.98 ERA over 19 starts in Double-A Frisco) who could interest Milwaukee. On the other hand, given their lack of starting pitching depth at the major-league level, these two starters could be called up by Texas sooner rather than later.

Further down their top 30 prospects list, you can find two lefty starters in Mitch Bratt (#18 prospect) and Kohl Drake (#21). Bratt tossed a combined 110 ⅓ innings across High-A and Double-A, finishing with a 3.75 ERA for the year. At just 20 years old, he’s advancing quickly, which will likely come with a big bump in his stock value in 2025. Similarly, Drake split time between three levels of the minors from Single-A to Double-A and was successful every step of the way, finishing with a 2.29 ERA over 106 innings. Both players have an ETA of 2025, which could fit the Brewers’ existing MO of targeting major-league-ready talent with plenty of team control.

Position player-wise, there isn’t a ton to write home about in pure prospect terms. Infielder Echedry Vargas has strong upside, but is a ways away from the big leagues at just 19 years old in Single-A. Most of their position players are outfielders, a place where Milwaukee has exceptional depth, but someone like Alejandro Osuna (.902 OPS, 265 PA in Double-A) could be worth a closer look.

This is where the rubber meets the road. The young arms are interesting, but this system doesn't contain an easy match for Williams's value in a trade. The big-league roster does, though. Would the Rangers give up either Josh Jung or Josh H. Smith to get their much-needed relief ace?

Smith and Jung each play third base, primarily. Smith has been moved around more, but as Jung has battled several injuries, he's been able to settle in there. Each has four years of team control remaining, which would be a lot to give up for one year of even a Williams-caliber closer. On the other hand, can the Rangers really make full use of both players? If negotiations between these teams get very far, you can bet Matt Arnold will at least push to get one of the Joshes to round out the infield even as he shifts resources around his roster.

The Rangers’ front office has its work cut out. They are undoubtedly prioritizing the reconstruction of their rotation, but if they want to get the best out of the remaining years of their superstars, they’ll need someone to close the show as well. Whether that person can be Williams depends on how badly they want that, and what they're willing to pay.

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[Harold Hutchison]

I wonder if a Civale-Williams package could bring back Teodo, Walcott, and Bratt.