You're The Brewers GM! Wheeling & Dealing While On A Budget

[Ryan Pollak]

Can the Milwaukee Brewers compete for another NL Central title while on a budget? How would I fair as the GM? Here is my chance to wheel and deal as I put myself in Matt Arnold's shoes for the 2024-25 offseason.

This series of articles is a primer for the release of our new "You're The Brewers GM!" tool, where you play the role of Matt Arnold and build your own Brewers offseason. Please visit the tool here and join in on the fun!

This is an interesting puzzle for the Brewers to put together. The club is already at a projected $122 million and won’t be big spenders this season. They still need to figure out an answer for the left side of the infield with Willy Adames, now a free agent. Not only that, but the starting rotation has also taken a hit, with Robert Gasser still recovering from Tommy John, Colin Rea, Wade Miley, and Frankie Montas, who are all free agents.

If the Brewers are going to compete and keep the payroll below $130 million, they will do a ton of wheeling and dealing while also dipping their toes in the free-agent market. What is that going to look like for this off-season? Let me have a go.

Non-Tenders: LHP DL Hall, LHP Hoby Milner, RHP J.B. Bukauskas, INF Vinny Capra
Let’s start with the shocking move of non-tendering a potential arm in the rotation in DL Hall. I could see the Brewers keeping Hall through spring training as he was considered a good arm for the rotation or even long relief. However, after a season of struggles and injuries, it might be time to cut ties with him.

Hall must earn his spot on the 26-man roster with no minor league options left. With the depth coming up from the minor league roster, there is a solid chance Hall could be pushed off the roster by the time the regular season starts. The same goes for J.B. Bukauskas, who has also run out of minor-league options. He never really had an opportunity to prove himself in the big leagues.

Hoby Milner is more of a “cap casualty” per se because he is expected to make $2.8 million in his final year of arbitration. Even though Miner had one minor league option left, Milner has accumulated more than five years of service, meaning he must approve a potential option for the minor leagues. It just seems like an inconvenience for the money he’s worth.

With these designations, the 40-man roster is back down to 34, and before we start adding to this roster, we must continue dropping the payroll. It begins with a trade that everybody has been projecting to happen during this series.

TRADE: Brewers Trade RHP Devin Williams to the Tigers for RHP Ty Madden and 2B Max Anderson

If it weren’t for how well the Brewers performed without Devin Williams in the first half of the season, I would’ve thought the Crew would’ve ridden out his contract. Instead, $7.7 million is a relatively good price for a former Trevor Hoffman Reliever of the Year, and the Crew should take advantage of that.

Earlier this week, Jason Wang explored the Detroit Tigers as a potential trade partner for the Airbender. It’s fair to say I was inspired. Ty Madden made his debut last season, allowing one run in five innings of work and getting his first career win. Madden could be a great long-relief or starting rotation option for the club. More importantly, he has all of his minor-league options remaining.

On the other hand, Max Anderson has a bit of work to do before making his debut. Anderson is just scratching the Double-A level and can be a hit-first infielder for the Brewers in a few years. The former second-round pick has comparisons to Ty France and Max Muncy, which means if he hits the ball, he will find a way on base.

Before the Brewers spend some cash, there’s one more player I’d like to part ways with to save money.

Trade: Brewers trade RHP Aaron Civale to the Braves for RHP Jhancarlos Lara

Aaron Civale was a nice addition at the deadline when we needed starting pitching depth last summer. But with an $8 million price tag and only one year of club control remaining, now might be the time to find a trade partner in need of pitching.

With Max Fried and Charlie Morton becoming free agents and Spencer Strider recovering from his injury, they might need to look at a short-term arm in the rotation. If they can’t bring back Fried, maybe Civale could be a cheap option. Parting ways with their #14 prospect is enough of a deal to get a reliable option.

This is all great for payroll, but what about the woes at third base? We have another trade that would help, but the fanbase might not be too fond of it.

Trade: Brewers acquire 3B Jake Burger from the Marlins for 1B Tyler Black and #29 Prospect RHP K.C. Hunt

The Marlins made it seem like any player was available at the last trade deadline. I’m not saying a fire sale is coming, but this team might be in rebuild mode. Even though Jake Burger has four more seasons of club control, the Marlins might be able to part ways with the slugger if the price is right.

The Marlins have Connor Norby and recently added prospect Deyvison De Los Santos, who can play third base. However, De Los Santos could ease into a first-base role. This sounds familiar to Tyler Black, but Black would likely get more opportunities in Miami. Black has a background in plenty of positions, including the outfield, third base, and second base, all before moving to first base.

If that isn’t enough for the Marlins, adding a pitching prospect that could debut as soon as late 2025 might be enough to get the deal done. Even better, Burger can also slide over to first base if/when the Brewers get out of Hoskin’s contract for the 2026 season. Until then, the Brewers need a new Jake Bauers.

Trade: Brewers acquire 1B/OF Gavin Sheets from the White Sox for cash or PTBNL
In the final trade of this offseason, the Brewers find a steady replacement as a backup first baseman/DH in Gavin Sheets, who may have been one of the bright spots from the worst team in baseball. While Sheets is considered a wash from Bauers's projected salary arbitration ($2.6 million), he has a better career batting average (.230), a lower strikeout percentage (20.8%), and OPS (.680). He’ll be a nice backup option should something happen to Hoskins. Let's get to spending that cash with every hole but the rotation filled.

Brewers sign LHP Jose Quintana to a two-year, $20 million with a $3 million buyout after 2025
With Brandon Woodruff's return to form uncertain, Aaron Ashby's lingering questions about becoming a starter, and Logan Henderson, Jacob Misiorowski, and Carlos Rodriguez still developing for a starter role, the Brewers might need a reliable starter for the rotation. The Brewers once spent a lot of money on aging veteran Wade Miley. Why not give one to soon-to-be 36-year-old Jose Quintana?

The structure of the deal looks like this. Quintana will be paid $8 million for the 2025 season. 2026, he will be set to make $12 million should he opt into the second year. If he elects free agency, the Brewers will only be charged $3 million for that season. Essentially, the deal, at a minimum, will be a one-year contract worth $11 million.

With 170.1 innings of work and a 3.75 ERA, he will be an inning-eating pitcher for the rotation. He’s long passed his days as an All-Star with the White Sox, but he can still be an effective arm for a team that needs help now. But I think the Brewers might need one more arm. While it is more international, it’s not the arm fans would have been hearing about.

Brewers sign LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a three-year, $20 million deal
The last time the Brewers had a Japanese-born player on their team was outfielder Norichika “Nori” Aoki. Shinnosuke Ogasawara, 27, could be the next one and may turn into a nice rotational arm. But as described by MLBTR, he is a little bit of a wildcard. A 3.12 ERA is nothing to sneeze at. But his drop in strikeout percentage from last year is substantial. If there were an organization that could fix that bit of production and more, it would be the Brewers.

In this deal, Ogasawara will be paid $5 million in 2025, $6.5 million in 2026, and $8.5 million in 2027. There will be no buyouts in this deal.

The club missed out on signing Shota Imanaga and Erick Fedde last season, so this might be the time to sign someone from overseas this year. The last time they tried this was Josh Lindblom, who is now no longer in the league. There are never enough pitchers when it comes to organizations in MLB, and with the Brewers having room on the roster, why not add another one?

Other Moves
If you're keeping track, the Brewers 40-man roster would now stand at 36. This number will likely drop to 35 once Gasser is placed on the 60-day injured list. This gives the club more flexibility to add prospects like Misiorowski, Craig Yoho, and even Brock Wilken in due time. Until then, the club could look at a utility player upgrade. The cheapest option that could probably provide the highest reward is Whit Merrifield. He showed signs of aging, and he would probably take a deal near $2 million for one year—maybe a mutual option.

There might be an addition or two from minor league deals like the Deivi Garcia deal earlier this week. RHP Josh Winder could be another solid option for a minor-league deal. Even so, we can leave the 40 roster a little more open if players perform well in spring training.

As for the outfield, I can see the club is willing to keep all five outfielders if one is injured. With that upgrade at the utility position, the Brewers could be fine with two outfield injuries. But let’s hope we don’t get to that point.

Projected 26-man Opening Day Roster:

Lineup:
LF: Jackson Chourio
C: William Contreras
DH: Christian Yelich
3B: Jake Burger
CF: Garrett Mitchell
1B: Rhys Hoskins
RF: Sal Frelick
SS: Joey Ortiz
2B: Brice Turang

Bench:
C: Eric Haase
UTIL: Whit Merrifield
1B/OF: Gavin Sheets
OF: Blake Perkins

Rotation:
RHP Freddy Peralta
RHP Tobias Myers
LHP Jose Quintana
LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara
RHP Logan Henderson

Bullpen:
RHP Trevor Megill
RHP Joel Payamps
LHP Bryan Hudson
LHP Jared Koenig
RHP Abner Uribe
RHP Elvis Peguero
RHP Nick Mears
LHP Aaron Ashby

15-Day Injured List:
RHP Brandon Woodruff

60-Day Injured List:
LHP Robert Gasser

What do you think of this offseason plan? Do you think you can do better? Then build your own Brewers roster and hit the button below!

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[wallus]

Zero chance the Brewers Non Tender DL Hall.

[BlazingGunz]

Burger would be interesting but not for that price.  Not sure his defense is good enough for 3B either.     And no, Hall isn’t going anywhere.  

[James Zumstein]

I like some of your ideas, especially Devin to the Tigers, but I'm not sure how trading a 29 year old Civale to "save money" adds up when you then sign a 36 year old with similar numbers for $3M more for next season.

[Ryan Pollak]

On 11/23/2024 at 9:06 AM, James Zumstein said:

I like some of your ideas, especially Devin to the Tigers, but I'm not sure how trading a 29 year old Civale to "save money" adds up when you then sign a 36 year old with similar numbers for $3M more for next season.

I appreciate the comment and like that you asked this question.

Where trading Civale and signing Quintana was a wash in the payroll, there are some statistics that Quintana beats out. His career HR% is lower than Civale while his GB% is higher. Great sign for a hitter friendly park. Not only that but Quintana's career FIP is lower over his 13 seasons in the league.

Also, the Brewers don't have a proven lefty starter for the rotation for a good chunk of the season. While it's not a necessity, I like the idea of having that option. In this certain scenario, the only other starting lefties are Ashby and Ogasawara. Ashby is still a little shaky and Ogasawara would still need to get used to MLB playing time. Gasser exists but TJ surgery is no joke and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses all of 2025.

[jay87shot]

If Devin has a 8.6 trade value, I think we will likely get around 12 back because he is likely to get a team back a compensation pick. I don't exactly know what a comp. pick value is on the trade value listing, I don't mind Madden and Anderson, maybe Detriot gets a comp pick and we add that to the deal.