Milwaukee Brewers 2025 Position Analysis: First Base

[Michael Trzinski]

The Brewers front office probably wishes they could use Mr. Peabody’s Wayback Machine or travel back in time with Doc Brown and Marty McFly and head to March 28, 2018. That was the beginning of the best season of Rhys Hoskins' career, which included a career-best 38 doubles and 34 home runs. They could sure use those numbers in 2025.

Hoskins came into his first season in Milwaukee as a question mark, as he had missed the entire 2023 campaign after surgery to repair the ACL in his right knee. Hoskins started out slowly in 2024 and had a hamstring injury in late May that cost him some playing time. He hit nine home runs and had an OPS of .813 before he went on the shelf. His final numbers showed a hitting line of .214/.303/.419 with 26 jacks and an OPS+ of 98 over 449 at-bats. Hoskins played 53% of the innings at first, while Jake Bauers covered 38%. Five others filled in the remaining time.

BREWERS FIRST BASEMEN AT A GLANCE
Starter: Rhys Hoskins
Backup: Jake Bauers
Depth: Mark Canha, Tyler Black, Oliver Dunn
Prospects: Ernesto Martinez, Wes Clarke, Mike Boeve, Luke Adams, Blake Burke

Brewers fWAR Ranking Last Year: 24^th out of 30
Brewers fWAR Projection This Year: 27^th out of 30

THE GOOD
Hoskins is one more season removed from his knee surgery and hopefully he is fully (or close to it) recovered. A typical Hoskins season looks like this: .240/.350/.490 with 28-30 home runs and about 30 doubles. If he can stay on the field and make 120 starts at first base and another 20-30 games as the designated hitter, Brewers fans will probably be happy with the production coming from the 18-million-dollar man.

The next wave of ‘First Baseman of the Future’ is a couple years away but for now, Hoskins is the best everyday option for manager Pat Murphy. So far this spring, Hoskins is hitting .500/.667/1.625 through eight at-bats with three homers and four walks. Yes, it IS a small sample size, but that is a heck of a lot better than an 0-for-8 start. Hopefully Hoskins can stay healthy and carry his early success through the season. He’ll never hit .300, but 30 HRs and 90-100 RBIs from one player at first base would be something Milwaukee fans haven’t seen for a few years.

Bauers doesn’t hit for average, but he does draw walks (11.1% career BB rate), steals bases, and hits home runs. Other than the fact that he is only a .200 hitter, he does some things right. Speed and power are always pluses. That’s why the Brewers brought him back.

Canha could get promoted from the ‘depth’ status to ‘back-up’ if Bauers falters. At age 36, Canha is a solid twice-a-week starter and hits LHP or RHP about the same (.762 OPS vs. LHP, .763 vs. RHP). The 10-year veteran can play in left or right field if needed, so that versatility is always a plus.

Black and Dunn are both fighting for a roster spot and can fill in at first in a pinch, but for now, they are a bit farther down on the depth chart.

The prospects are a couple years off, but the hope in the Milwaukee organization is that one (or more) of these guys can take their games to the major league level and give the Brewers a player that can be penciled in at the ‘3’ spot for the next 8-10 years. Right now, it appears that Boeve is the closest, possibly making an appearance in Milwaukee this year. Adams is perhaps a year behind that, and Burke maybe two years down the road. The good news is that Adams is only 20, Burke is 21, and Boeve is 22. Martinez has opened some eyes but at 25, is a little too old to be a ‘prospect.’ As is Clarke, who is also 25.

THE BAD
Hoskins’ health and his declining production in the ‘dog days’ last year are a definite concern. Can his surgically repaired knee stand up to the strain of playing in the field 4-5 times per week? Hoskins turns 32 on St. Patrick’s Day so he’s not getting any younger, but on the other hand he could be playing for his next contract and a nice season would go far in padding his bank account.

Bauers’ batting line is not strong enough to make him a full-time starter, so the Brewers are hoping and praying that ‘Rhys Lightning’ stays healthy and performs as the Brewers expect him to.

The bad news for Boeve, Adams, and Burke is that they are still playing in the minors and not at Am Fam Field (Uecker Park). They will be here soon enough, but that doesn’t help the Brewers in the short term. Martinez could help out and he might make the roster, but he has no big-league experience, so you never know what to expect.

THE BOTTOM LINE
All bets are on Hoskins, but my feeling is that if he stays healthy, he will produce as he has done in the past. Milwaukee fans were spoiled with Cecil Cooper and Prince Fielder, but will have to wait until one of the ‘kids’ comes up to see a first sacker who (hopefully) has a long tenure. But in Hoskins’ defense, Milwaukee did not expect a 35-homer guy with a .900 OPS. If Rhys can duplicate his Philadelphia performance and stay on the field, first base will be just fine.

Share your thoughts on the first base outlook below and check out the rest of our Position Analysis series.

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[Brian]

Will Tyler Black bat over .100 this preseason? 

[Stubby66]

I thought at one time he could be a Molitor type hitter but now I will be happy if he becomes a Greg Brock type hitter for us