What Level of Success Can Teams Achieve in the IFA Pitching Market? Part 1

[CheeseheadInQC]

The Brewers have stated a goal of being more successful at signing and developing pitchers from the IFA market, but what level of contributions can the Brewers expect if they achieve this goal? Let's look at some recent data.

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"We feel great about our processes and evaluating hitters, and certainly something to identify here is how do we identify pitchers?"

James Armstrong, Brewers director of international scouting

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After a long history of struggling to produce hitting prospects out of their international free agent signings, it appears as if the Brewers have finally turned the corner in that regard. It is only natural, then, that they would turn their attention to something perhaps even more elusive: getting contributions from their international free agent pitchers.

That raises the question, though. What level of success can we reasonably expect the Brewers to have?

That is what I’m going to attempt to answer in this series. This part will focus on the basic metrics of success, what is average and what constitutes above average. The next part will dive deeper into the data looking at potential strategies to see what effect they had (or didn’t) on success. The last will look at where the Brewers stand currently.

First, the Caveat

Don’t take the stats within this article as 100% complete. They come from me scanning the player pages of players on the bottom two rungs of each organization’s ladder (usually the DSL and what are now known as the Complex Leagues) looking for international free agent signings who debuted during the listed seasons. There is a chance I missed someone or that some of the players debuted at an even higher level. I scanned the top signings for each year to try to avoid an obvious prospect miss, but the guys who come over basically Major League ready aren’t my focus anyway. It doesn’t take a genius to say “Hey, we should sign Roki Sasaki.”

Also, I used the years 2014-2016 because I felt they were the most recent years for which most of the players who were going to reach the big leagues from those signing classes would already have done so. It doesn’t map perfectly onto the current situation. The bonus restrictions weren’t quite as onerous. (Remember the teams essentially blowing past the spending limits one year in exchange for capping their top bonus the next two years? You don’t see that anymore). Also, the restructuring of the minor league systems means that some of the pitchers are a bit more likely to see A ball now, and there is also a chance that some of the pitchers could have reached a level higher were they not among the COVID purge.

Also, these are the debut seasons, not the signing years. Some players might not even be listed with their signing class if they were injured their first season

So, the data set that follows isn’t perfect, but it is the best one that I have. Also, if you are reading this on your phone, my apologies. The tables are too wide and you are going to have to side-scroll to see all the columns.

Pitchers By Team and Highest Level Reached

 

		MLB	AAA	AA	A+	A	R	Total
NL East
Braves	Total	1	2	2	5	1	26	37
	2014	0	0	1	1	0	9	11
	2015	0	2	0	2	1	12	17
	2016	1	0	1	2	0	5	9
Marlins	Total	4	2	1	3	6	26	42
	2014	1	0	0	0	2	10	13
	2015	1	2	0	2	1	9	15
	2016	2	0	1	1	3	7	14
Mets	Total	1	4	2	2	2	38	49
	2014	0	1	0	1	2	13	17
	2015	0	1	0	0	0	18	19
	2016	1	2	2	1	0	7	13
Phillies	Total	5	4	4	3	3	42	61
	2014	3	3	2	2	1	11	22
	2015	2	1	1	0	1	13	18
	2016	0	0	1	1	1	18	21
Nationals	Total	1	3	2	5	3	34	48
	2014	0	3	0	2	2	15	22
	2015	1	0	2	2	1	10	16
	2016	0	0	0	1	0	9	10
NL Central
Cubs	Total	3	2	2	4	5	28	44
	2014	0	1	0	2	2	10	15
	2015	1	1	0	1	2	11	16
	2016	2	0	2	1	1	7	13
Reds	Total	1	0	0	4	5	43	53
	2014	0	0	0	1	1	13	15
	2015	1	0	0	3	4	13	21
	2016	0	0	0	0	0	17	17
Brewers	Total	1	4	0	2	2	14	23
	2014	0	1	0	1	0	2	4
	2015	0	1	0	0	0	3	4
	2016	1	2	0	1	2	9	15
Pirates	Total	3	1	4	1	1	27	37
	2014	2	0	1	0	0	13	16
	2015	1	1	1	1	0	6	10
	2016	0	0	2	0	1	8	11
Cardinals	Total	4	0	3	5	3	16	31
	2014	2	0	0	1	2	7	12
	2015	0	0	0	2	1	6	9
	2016	2	0	3	2	0	3	10
NL West
Diamondbacks	Total	4	3	2	1	5	40	55
	2014	1	1	0	1	1	8	12
	2015	2	0	1	0	0	11	14
	2016	1	2	1	0	4	21	29
Rockies	Total	1	1	2	5	4	18	31
	2014	0	0	1	3	1	6	11
	2015	1	0	1	0	1	5	8
	2016	0	1	0	2	2	7	12
Dodgers	Total	3	4	4	5	8	32	56
	2014	1	1	0	1	0	10	13
	2015	0	1	1	1	2	7	12
	2016	2	2	3	3	6	15	31
Padres	Total	3	1	6	0	3	29	42
	2014	1	1	0	0	2	8	12
	2015	1	0	2	0	1	9	13
	2016	1	0	4	0	0	12	17
Giants	Total	3	4	4	2	1	21	35
	2014	0	1	0	0	0	8	9
	2015	0	3	2	1	0	6	12
	2016	3	0	2	1	1	7	14
AL East
Orioles	Total	0	1	0	1	0	18	20
	2014	0	1	0	1	0	9	11
	2015	0	0	0	0	0	6	6
	2016	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Red Sox	Total	8	2	2	3	4	34	53
	2014	4	0	0	1	1	5	11
	2015	3	0	1	2	1	18	25
	2016	1	2	1	0	2	11	17
Yankees	Total	8	2	1	7	4	56	78
	2014	2	1	1	1	1	20	26
	2015	1	1	0	2	1	19	24
	2016	5	0	0	4	2	17	28
Rays	Total	4	1	0	6	3	49	63
	2014	3	0	0	2	0	19	24
	2015	1	0	0	3	3	14	21
	2016	0	1	0	1	0	16	18
Blue Jays	Total	3	1	3	4	2	29	42
	2014	0	1	2	1	0	8	12
	2015	2	0	0	1	1	12	16
	2016	1	0	1	2	1	9	14
AL Central
White Sox	Total	0	0	1	1	0	13	15
	2014	0	0	1	0	0	6	7
	2015	0	0	0	1	0	4	5
	2016	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
Guardians	Total	3	3	3	1	6	26	42
	2014	1	1	1	1	3	10	17
	2015	1	1	2	0	2	8	14
	2016	1	1	0	0	1	8	11
Tigers	Total	1	1	1	2	2	31	38
	2014	0	0	0	0	1	11	12
	2015	0	1	1	1	1	12	16
	2016	1	0	0	1	0	8	10
Royals	Total	0	2	2	1	2	21	28
	2014	0	1	1	0	0	6	8
	2015	0	0	1	0	0	9	10
	2016	0	1	0	1	2	6	10
Twins	Total	5	2	0	1	2	16	26
	2014	0	1	0	0	1	3	5
	2015	4	0	0	1	0	7	12
	2016	1	1	0	0	1	6	9
AL West
Astros	Total	13	5	8	4	8	51	89
	2014	3	2	1	2	6	18	32
	2015	5	2	4	0	2	13	26
	2016	5	1	3	2	0	20	31
Angels	Total	6	3	1	2	0	18	30
	2014	2	3	0	0	0	8	13
	2015	3	0	0	1	0	2	6
	2016	1	0	1	1	0	8	11
Athletics	Total	0	2	1	3	3	17	26
	2014	0	0	1	0	1	7	9
	2015	0	1	0	2	2	4	9
	2016	0	1	0	1	0	6	8
Mariners	Total	2	1	0	1	2	14	20
	2014	1	0	0	0	0	6	7
	2015	1	1	0	0	2	3	7
	2016	0	0	0	1	0	5	6
Rangers	Total	3	2	1	2	2	43	53
	2014	1	1	0	2	1	19	24
	2015	1	0	0	0	0	13	14
	2016	1	1	1	0	1	11	15
Totals		94	63	62	86	92	870	1267
% of Total		7.42%	4.97%	4.89%	6.79%	7.26%	68.67%

Key Takeaways

Expect Failure, Lots of Failure

More than 2/3 of all IFA pitching signees never made it out of rookie ball

Just let that soak in.

This isn't just a few outliers throwing off the stats either. Every team saw more than 50% of its IFA pitchers debuting in those three seasons never make full season ball. Only the Cardinals really came close.

The contraction of one level of rookie ball might throw off the stats a bit, but in general most of the IFA pitchers you sign will never move beyond the Complex Leagues or the DSL. That isn't a mark of failure. It is just unfortunate baseball math.

That's not to say that a high ratio here is ideal. You can't expect success when your percentage of pitchers who get released in rookie ball is 90% like the Orioles in these seasons. But in general, if you are around 40-50% reaching A ball, you are doing a decidedly above average job in that regard.

The Law of Large Numbers

The total number of Astros pitchers who never made it past rookie ball is more than all but eight of the other teams signed total. Their 89 total signings were 11 more than the second place Yankees.

In this case, quantity begat quality. The Astros' 13 big leaguers was five more than second place. We'll see in the next chart that they rank high in success metrics among their big leaguers as well.

Those second place Yankees? They were tied for second in big leaguers with eight. In fact eight of the nine teams who signed at least 50 total pitchers got at least three to the majors, with only the Reds falling short.

There were teams who succeeded despite smaller numbers. The Cardinals, Angels and Twins ranged from 26-31 and still did well. In general, though, more signings equaled a greater chance of success.

Now let's look closer at some of the success that those big leaguers have had.

A Closer Look at the MLB Players

	Pitchers	Innings	fWAR
			0 or less	.1-1	1.1-3	3+
NL East
Braves	1	19.7	1	0	0	0
Marlins	4	535.7	3	0	1	0
Mets	1	34	0	1	0	0
Phillies	5	237.3	3	1	1	0
Nationals	1	146.3	0	1	0	0
NL Central
Brewers	1	39.3	1	0	0	0
Cubs	3	303.7	1	1	1	0
Cardinals	4	1281.7	1	1	1	1
Pirates	3	182.7	1	2	0	0
Reds	1	100	0	1	0	0
NL West
Diamondbacks	4	270	3	0	0	1
Rockies	1	17.3	1	0	0	0
Dodgers	3	359.7	1	0	2	0
Padres	3	877.3	0	0	0	3
Giants	3	290.7	1	1	0	1
AL East
Orioles	0	0	0	0	0	0
Red Sox	8	338	4	3	1	0
Yankees	8	476.3	5	3	0	0
Rays	4	902.7	0	2	1	1
Blue Jays	3	170	3	0	0	0
AL Central
White Sox	0	0	0	0	0	0
Guardians	3	127.7	2	1	0	0
Tigers	1	12.7	1	0	0	0
Royals	0	0	0	0	0	0
Twins	5	502	2	0	2	1
AL West
Astros	13	2532.7	6	3	1	3
Angels	6	1090.7	3	0	3	0
Athletics	0	0	0	0	0	0
Mariners	2	251	1	1	0	0
Rangers	3	154.7	2	1	0	0
Totals	94	11253.7	46	23	14	11
Per Team	3.13	375	1.53	0.77	0.47	0.37

Pitchers with at Least 1 fWAR

• Marlins: Edward Cabrera
• Phillies: Sixto Sanchez
• Nationals: Pedro Avila
• Cubs: Javier Assad
• Cardinals: Sandy Alcantara, Johan Oviedo
• Diamondbacks: Jhoan Duran
• Dodgers: Edwin Uceta, Dennis Santana
• Padres: Emmanuel Clase, Dinelson Lamet, Andres Munoz
• Giants: Camilo Duval
• Red Sox: Gregory Santos
• Rays: Cristopher Sanchez, Diego Castillo
• Twins: Brusdar Graterol, Luis Gil, Huascar Ynoa
• Astros: Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Ronel Blanco
• Angels: Jose Soriano, Jose Suarez, Jamie Barria

Takeaways

What is Average?

Two of the classic ways to look at average are mean and median. In this case, they vary greatly, especially when looking at innings pitched thus far. Part of that is because the Astros have more total innings than the bottom 21 teams put together.

The mean would be roughly 3 pitchers reaching the big leagues totalling about 375 innings with one pitcher more than (or at least close to) 1 fWAR.

The 3 would still be the median for pitchers, but only 8 of the teams hit the 375 figure. The median would be closer to 210, roughly halfway between the Pirates and the Phillies. And of those Phillies and Pirates pitchers, the last time I looked none were in the big leagues and only two were still in affiliated ball (although the Phillies did get significant trade value from Sixto Sanchez before the injuries doomed his career).

The median for the highest fWAR for a team's best pitcher so far I believe would be 0.75.

The Bottom is, Well, Not Good

It says something about the level of disparity between the Astros and the teams at the bottom when the 39 ⅓ innings the Brewers got from Miguel Sanchez someone vaults them completely out of the bottom quarter of the league in innings pitched.

As you can see, four teams had no pitchers reach the big leagues, with none of them averaging even 10 new IFA debuts per season.

Another five had only one pitcher make it and got less than 50 innings from him. Not exactly a significant success for much of the league.

I'd think that some of this gap might be closing a bit. The Brewers had only just kind of started to really try in the international market after getting their DSL teams back up and running. The Orioles still seemed to fill their DSL roster by rolling a dice every time someone got released from a different organization's DSL squad and if it came up 6 signing them to a contract.

Still, the outliers in a negative direction outnumbered those in a positive one.

Getting Lots of Big Leaguers is Good, But …

Getting a lot of pitchers to the big leagues doesn't mean you are going to get a truly impact arm. Just ask the Yankees.

New York was tied for second behind Houston with eight pitchers from the three classes getting a big league shot, including five who debuted in 2016 alone. They, however, have zero pitchers who have thus far accumulated even 1 fWAR. Their list is headed thus far by Jhony Brito, currently on the Padres' 60-day IL. After him? Well you've got current Nashville teammates Deivi Garcia and Elvis Peguero.

Their rival Red Sox, who tied with the Yankees with eight big leaguers, are in almost as bad of shape. Their only one with at least 1 fWAR coming into the season, Gregory Santos, has managed to slide below that mark with seven poor innings before getting optioned this year.

Coming Up

In part two we'll look at a number of potential strategies, including the effects of bonus money and signing age.

View full article

[CheeseheadInQC]

Once again, my apologies for those of you reading those charts on your phone with needing to side scroll. I need to figure out a better solution.

[Brock Beauchamp]

15 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Once again, my apologies for those of you reading those charts on your phone with needing to side scroll. I need to figure out a better solution.

It's actually REALLY easy to do on a phone, don't worry about it. It's common UI usage on data sites like B-Ref.

[biedergb]

Good write up, interesting that there are few overall impact arms from the IFA pool.

And for the Brewers since those years (2017 on) as far as I can tell is Abner Uribe - unless I missed someone we traded away. And more recently it looks like Alexandre Cornielle is the next best option in AA.

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

On 4/26/2025 at 3:56 PM, biedergb said:

Good write up, interesting that there are few overall impact arms from the IFA pool.

And for the Brewers since those years (2017 on) as far as I can tell is Abner Uribe - unless I missed someone we traded away. And more recently it looks like Alexandre Cornielle is the next best option in AA.

 

Yah, but I wonder how it would compare to the draft if you looked by bonus rather than overall. For instance. the Brewers signed Manuel Rodriguez, Anthony Flores, Bryan Rivera, Wande Torres and Yorman Galindez in 2022 for less combined than Nate Peterson's bonus from the same year's draft. I couldn't find Daniel Corniel's bonus information, but there is a decent chance that you could add him to the aforementioned quintet without breaking $200,000 total. In all, the 17 pitchers whose bonus information I could find for that class from the Brewers signed for more than $60,000 less than Matt Wood got that year.