Pitchers Are Keeping Down And Dirty To Andrew Vaughn, And It's Sapping His Pop

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Andrew Vaughn's initial success is the personification of financial investment warnings; that is, "past results are no indication of future performance." No one expected him to be a 1.200 OPS hitter over a longer span, yet he's still been a remarkably consistent presence at the plate in ways that suggest he's been incredibly unlucky in August. He did experience a slight drop-off in early August, but has rebounded lately with consistent, hard-hit aerial balls that just haven't yielded the results his performance warrants.

Merely watching games would give some indication that Vaughn's plenitude of warning track fly balls suggests he's barely missing the game-changing long balls that had the Brewers fan base in raptures through July. We're talking a blade of wood on the bat of a difference here, folks, and sluggers will typically find that the home run ball comes in fits and spurts. That being said, pitchers have found a way to keep the hard-hit contact down on the ground more often in August by changing their approach to the first baseman.

If we're talking about purely minimizing damage, one zone in his expected Weighted on base average on contact alongside his expected slugging stands out like a sore thumb:

If you can keep pitches down, or down and away to Andrew Vaughn, he struggles to elevate it with the consistency to maximize his good contact. He still hits the ball hard, but ground balls at that speed can be tailor-made double play fodder for good defenses, and even when they do sneak through, it's more than likely just a single. Below we can see the pitch locations of all four seam fastballs, sinkers, and cutters in August compared to those in July:

July

August

It's a ploy that's worked out well for the opposition, and while Vaughn is still punishing breaking balls, he's seen his expected slugging output drop markedly against fastballs in the zone. He's pulling the ball less often, meaning the barreled balls are going more often to center or the opposite field and aren't quite getting the same exit velocities to clear the fences. It's these sorts of small margins that are just barely shackling the first baseman.

The good news is that Andrew Vaughn's cerebral approach to baseball has allowed him to maintain positive production for the Brewers, even without the signature slugging output of his debut month. He's striking out just 12.7% of the time in August with a walk rate of over 9%, putting balls in play and consistently squaring the ball up with good exit velocities. His Statcast page is filled with red on quality of contact metrics (even despite the inclusion of his White Sox numbers from earlier in the season):

Andrew Vaughn has been unlucky in August. He's not whiffing much; he's taking his walks and making a lot of hard, high-quality contact. It just so happens that pitchers have found a way to subdue some of the roaring power he showed in his first month with the Brewers. It may result in Rhys Hoskins perhaps taking more at-bats against pitchers with dominant sinkers, and Vaughn with more four-seam dominant arms during the September stretch, or perhaps Vaughn simply gets that little bit of fortune that allows him to go on yet another tear for the Milwaukee Brewers. 

The good news is that, even without some of the slugging output, Andrew Vaughn has been a menace in the heart of the Brewers order, and it's only a matter of time before that luck rebounds and we see those extra base hits pour back in. He might not reach the highs of his July form again, but Andrew Vaughn is still a capable and effective producer for this Milwaukee Brewers line-up.

What do you think of Andrew Vaughn's recent form? Is it concerning, or do you see enough quality in his plate appearances to keep him rolling? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Ron750]

At least the Brewers are advancing runners with sacrifice flies, instead of striking out, grounding out or popping out. Woodpeckers gotta peck! 

[Brian]

Hoskins should be called up with Chourio because Chourio struggling in Nashville so far.   Hoskins is raking in Nashville. 

https://www.milb.com/player/rhys-hoskins-656555