Going Oppo: Why Bringing Back Freddy Peralta Is A Bad Baseball Decision

[Cory Sparks]

Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Freddy Peralta is in the final year of his contract, and it may be tempting for many to want him to don the blue and yellow yet again. This would not work, and it could prove catastrophic for the future of Milwaukee’s rotation if they tried a move like this. Let’s break down Peralta’s 2026 season, and the three different reasons bringing him back would be a poor decision. 

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This is a two-part article: read the counterpoint here.

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Building A Strong Reputation

Before diving into the reasons Peralta shouldn’t be back with the Crew, it’s important to highlight the portfolio he’s built for himself. For years, he has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. This is someone who has a career record of 75-51, a 3.79 earned run average, and over 1,200 strikeouts in just north of 1,000 innings. Peralta is a two-time All-Star, and the 30-year-old even surpassed 200 strikeouts in three straight seasons from 2023-2025. 

A Season To Forget

Milwaukee traded Peralta to the New York Mets ahead of this season, losing their ace along with a depth arm in Tobias Myers. In exchange, the Crew got utility Jett Williams and right-handed pitcher Brandon Sproat. Since that deal, Peralta has had one of the worst seasons of his big league career. 

This year, the now Tampa Bay Rays starter is 5-9 with a 5.37 earned run average, striking out 116 hitters over 117 1/3 innings in 23 starts. Peralta’s 1.52 WHIP is 44 points higher than the value he produced last year in his final campaign with the Brewers. The fastball-heavy hurler has been getting hit hard, allowing 19 homers while allowing a batting average of .260 or better on four of his six pitches. 

No Guarantee He's "Back"

Peralta’s walks are up at 9.2 percent (38th percentile), and his below-average strikeout rate of 21.8 percent (43rd percentile) hasn’t been encouraging either. This is somebody who has lost a tick on his fastball velocity, as his primary offering is gliding in at just an average of 94.2 miles per hour, his lowest mark since 2022. There’s no guarantee he returns to his form with the Brewers; The Cubs tried this with Jake Arrieta, who won a Cy Young with the team in 2016 before having some subpar seasons with the Phillies.

When he re-joined the northsiders five years later, his earned run average ballooned up to 7.39, almost three full runs higher than a 4.64 mark a pair of years prior. While it’s fun to imagine Peralta magically returning to form as soon as he dawns his old threads, this is someone on the other side of 30 years old who relies on power and is struggling mightily.

Innings Inefficiency

Even when Peralta was at his best, the former Brewers’ ace has always had a tough time finishing off hitters. The 30-year-old throws a lower-than-average percentage of pitches inside the zone, leading to a pitches per plate appearance rate north of 4.1. This results in those taxing, 100-pitch starts that sometimes just get Peralta through five innings. That’s how bullpens get taxed, even on some of his better days. 

Holding Down Controllable Talent

As it stands, Milwaukee has one of the better rotations in baseball while still developing more up-and-coming arms. Jacob Misiorowski is competing for an NL Cy Young award, Kyle Harrison has been a remarkable secondary option, and other names like Coleman Crow, Logan Henderson, and more could be controllable, affordable arms that should fill out the rotation. Peralta, even after a down year, will demand more revenue per year than most, if not all, of those players right now.

With the salary cap looming, combining production with affordability is of the utmost importance. Unfortunately, Peralta doesn’t provide that combination.

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[BrewerFan]

There are plenty of reasons to not sign Peralta(we can't afford to sign virtually any FA)... 

A "looming salary cap," and Jake Arrieta are not among them. You're making a pretty big jump assuming there will be a cap, even bigger that we'd be up against it and Arrieta was like 4-5 years removed from his time with the Cubs. In fact... if there would be a cap... it'd likely be the floor we'd be tracking. MLB's proposal, ~170 or so. We'd have to spend some money, especially if there was more revenue sharing.