BrewerFan

Ok. And that's... absolutely nowhere near what the Thunder got for PG13... which was what I said, and I don't think it's nearly as good of a package as the Jaylen Brown trade. The Lakers can offer the 25th pick this year(not particularly valuable), and then 2 picks in '31 and '33 and Reaves... who is not a young blue chip player. That's not near the OKC trade... which is what I was going off of and I don't think it's as valuable as the Jaylen Brown trade that I don't think the Celtics are biting on. And maybe every other team that was in the playoffs will have interest. And if Giannis says "I want to go to NYK?" Then ALL those teams are hoping he'll change his mind in a year and sign an extension. So I think those teams will lose interest after that point.

I'd still take Jaylen Brown. I think you could turn around and get a lot for him... but I don't see Boston making that trade. I'm also fine with veterans as long as you're getting back picks+ young players. Most deals will include bad contracts just due to his deal... but Giannis is going to be 32, he played 36 games and he's got 1 year left on his deal. I don't think trading Giannis is going to bring back a particularly big return. I'm seeing the Thunder trade for PG13 on Reddit or other places. These elaborate trades where we get back a guy like SGA and a boatload of future picks from OKC and SA. I don't like the way things have ended... based on what Portis and others have said, it's mostly an issue with Doc and Giannis(and Doc and the rest of the team) but I just wish this would have ended on better terms. Still, he got us a Championship and I'm good with this era. Obviously... I wish we'd have won more, but still, getting to see a title was pretty damn cool.

I don't really know what you're talking about right now, but I'll reiterate, NOBODY is calling him the next Nolan Ryan. In fact, you're actually the only one making that argument at this point. I've said I'd like to sign him.. as I said last year and I said THIS about him; How you're telling me that ACTUALLY means he'll be the most reliable power pitcher since the Great Depression, I'm kinda at a loss to be honest. BREWERS History does not equal all of MLB History... and in ALL of MLB History, there are FOUR pitchers who've thrown more innings than Nolan Ryan. One of those 4, Pud Galvin, who threw nearly 700 innings in back to back years and about 75% of his teams total innings those years. The next two pitched before the Great Depression and then you have a Knuckle Ball Pitcher Phil Niekro. So... I don't know what the point of this is or how it furthers any discussion about extending Misirorowski, but... I have said THREE times now, I am not and HAVE not compared him to Nolan Ryan. You're doing that and then asking why... throwing hard helps a pitcher be dominant(which I again, don't even know how to respond to).

... I'm not even sure how to respond to this. No, I don't think it goes Nolan Ryan, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff when looking at power pitchers. I'm trying to tell if you're being serious here. You're seriously trying to draw a connection from this statement; To arguing that I'm calling him Nolan Ryan? That's a reasonable conclusion to you? And I'm arguing the additional team control we have adds value to him. In a trade, to the Brewers... either way. I still don't think it's particularly relevant as Misiorowski is already exponentially more valuable than Ashby has ever been and the only thing they really have in common is both signed extensions for the Brewers. Ashby signing a 5 year 20.5M extension... if you feel good or bad about it, it doesn't inform anything with regard to how we should approach Misiorowski. But for arguments sake, what do we think Ashby would get on the FA market? A power lefty with a FB in the upper 90s, elite K rate, elite GB rate. I'm thinking it'd be more than 1 year, 7M with two team options at 9 and 13M.

Well... yeah, but it's not like they knew going into the draft with limited picks they would get their guy... so when they did, it's a sunk cost. I'd rather they eat the 1M... which really isn't much to them, than be stubborn and go with McManus because they're already invested.

I didn't. I referred to his talent relative to Brewers history. And I believe he's got a lot of value right now and that the contract we gave him... while not particularly relevant to Misiorowski... has been worthwhile. 5.5M is... not really expensive for a high leverage reliever either. I'd also argue the 3 more years of team control make him MORE valuable rather than less. Be it in a trade or with the team. I guess just an odd argument to make because it kinda infers it's a binary choice. Either WE pay him hundreds of millions or someone else does, but.. sure, we can let someone else pay him hundreds of millions...and then I think you added to have surgery at 30. We COULD do that while also extending him ourselves. Both are options. I'd like to see us sign him and keep him for an extra couple years or at least try to given that's the discussion.

You sure I have permission to continue to talk about this... thread dedicated to this exact subject? That's... mighty kind of you!

Were you not calling for him to be replaced?

Ok... I guess if you just proclaim it's the "end of the discussion," it's the end of the discussion😃

... Made for Miller? I'm actually curious if SD would do that... and would also not even consider it, but good god he is nasty.

I think it's working out wonderfully with Ashby, I think he has surplus value, but... there's also a rather wide chasm between what Misiorowski IS right now and what Ashby has EVER been. And we're doing pretty good developing position players. I don't think that supports an argument of 'we do it so well, why sign him.' I don't believe we can find another Misiorwoski for a penny on the dollar. He's not just some guy, he's probably the most dominant or overpowering talent the Brewers have ever had. So if we're going to argue the risk is big, ok, fine. But lets not just ask like he's another guy and we'll just replace him. I also don't get the last part. "Let another team pay hundredS of millionS for him to have elbow surgery at 30. Nobody has suggest we pay "hundredS of millionS," and most pitchers eventually have surgery. But obviously... not everyone has to agree. I feel like there'd be a lot of celebration IF we signed him, but since we know it's a long shot, we're arguing against it.

Yeah, I didn't like it and as it turned out, I it looks particularly bad as we REALLY could have used a RHed OF bat and a solid RHed reliever in the pen but moreso after Chourio went down. Reading this thread, I am perfectly fine with people who say 'I trust the Brewers.' They've earned it. There's a little 'how dare you question them,' that... is a bit much, but... whatever. @biedergbpointed out a couple trades I didn't love. But they're not all going to be winners. At least the Durbin trade looks like an absolute steal. Hate giving up another comp pick, but for what appears to be two really good, solid above average looking arms, take the L with KC and the W with the Boston deal thus far. Even Hamilton has been alright(compared to Durbin).

I don't think that's actually their preferred method. I think signing him and locking him up for 8 years with lets say 1TO after this year would increase his trade value significantly. They wanted to sign him last year. If they can't get him signed... then they won't have much choice, but I think they'd prefer to extend them rather than deal him on a pre-determined timeline.

No. Of course not. But lets say the first decade of his career is deGrom-esque? I think we'd all take that. I said last year I'd try and do 8/100 and if we waited until he started dominating, it'd be too late. Others said no more than Ashby or Peralta(I think adjusted for salary inflation) because he has heavy reliever risk. The Brewers SHOULD be extending Made and Misiorowski now and then... you can see how it goes and maybe go with Pena or another young player or pitcher. Look at guys like Harrison, Sproat and try and give them early 8 year deals for...36-40M+ 2TOs if they bite. But I think you'd be looking at 300M total for Made and Misiorowski.

I don't fully understand that. The BP has been great as it stands, but if you take Megill out of there, it sure seems like it will be. Our #2 RHH would be... Grant Anderson? And what are we getting at SS/3B(which I don't think will be a problem with Rengifo, but lets say that it is)... who is giving up a significant upgrade for a little over a year or a late inning reliever? You'd be lucky to get a Jett Williams type. Ok, if Wilken, Adams or Burke can prove they can hit at AAA, then fine. Though they're different players and offer little in the way of versatility. Some 3B/1B, but if they're going to be up, the need for 3B goes down. And that's if Rengifo's BABIP stays at ~.200. I'm thinking it's going to go up a bit. It's really not. Trading Devin Williams at the ASB before the playoffs would have been the Brewers way. Trading Adames before his final year would have been max value. Trading Burnes with 2 years to go would have been max value. They generally trade a guy with a year left or they let him walk. They don't trade a closer if he's throwing well and the one time they did... they openly said they made a mistake. Of course if I took that literally, Misiorowski's value is probably peak value right now. But they're not trading him. You have to have SOME balance for winning and staying competitive. Every year we make what generally turns out to be an ill-fated attempt to trade for a high leverage reliever. We ask about the better ones, they're too expensive, we take a lesser one. I don't see how the BP is going to fix itself, it's going to be... almost all lefties out there(especially if Koenig does come back) and a pretty big hit when your SP'ing is expected to go 5 or MAYBE 6 innings. That's Uribe... maybe Ashby, though he usually comes in after the starter and then just a list of pitchers we have that are in no way high leverage relievers. I put all the lefties in bold. I put the pitchers I'd trust at all late in a playoff game in Italics. I'm just not seeing how you can afford to trade an AS Closer AND say you're serious about competing. This December? Sure. This July if we're near the top of the division? No. It's like the trading pitching depth you proposed trading from. There's a lot of names, but that doesn't mean you want to count on them in big spots OR that you frankly even have enough. We're really at the point where if we're going to trade for someone, we should be trading for a Megill and trading the prospects. NOT the other way around.

So you're asking if Megill gets back to form... which, I think he's back there now as he's gone 7IP, 2H, 1BB 0 ERs and 8K with a 1.29 FIP. Even on the year he has a 2.29 FIP. But if you're talking about ERA... once he's back to a dominant late inning reliever...we should trade him? WHY? That's exactly what we need. A dominant back end of the bullpen. We don't have power arms ready in the minor leagues, we haven't signed anyone or claimed anyone who can be like Megill. I suppose if we're under .500 at the deadline and 10 back... fine, but we're still competitive what looks like a Sunday lineup EVERYDAY without Vaughn, Chourio and Yelich, all of whom should be back by June. What depth? I guess Bauers, but again, I'd prefer to keep him as his value would be minimal and we have plenty of mediocre prospects(and lots of very good ones). We have worse relievers with lots of team control. Dominant closers who can throw an upper 90s fastball by you... those are decidedly more difficult to come by. Are we punting on this season? Or... I'm not sure I understand. You always want to turn a older guy like Megill into a younger version of Megill, but... for obvious reasons, teams don't tend to do that. At best they take an arm like Sproat who they don't believe is reliable enough and they trade him for an immediate upgrade because they don't have the time or the patience to wait, but you're almost certainly getting a downgrade. If you're saying do this AFTER the season, sure. He's in a walk year and we have all off-season to find some arms and you may have a better read on some other pitchers in the system, but I don't see how it serves any purpose to do so this year. If I could pick a position... while accounting for price, I'd definitely look for a high leverage RHed reliever. Obviously I'd love a Starting pitcher, but they're really expensive if they're valuable and we had Pratt, Made, Pena, Jett, coming up pretty quickly, corner IFers(in addition to Pratt who probably ends up there), Wilken, Adams, Burke... But I've yet to see a BP that was overburdened with power arms.

I'm still not sure what to make of the pen. I think it'll... kinda hinge on Megill. His Velo is about where it was this time last year. He has a 2.41 FIP, but they have been just less reliable last year. It's not just the losses, I'd be willing to guess there were more games where they were down 1-2 runs and the BP gave up runs, hurting our chances to come back as well as the 8 losses. I'd love to see another reliever added. My early season crush Grant Taylor is dominant and... a rookie, so no reason the CHW trade him, but I'd love to see that 3rd power arm, right handed power arm added... and I don't think we have one in the MiLB who looks like they'll be ready soon.

Payne seems like the ultimate boom or bust type prospect. I'd rather target players like him in this next draft vs a... Sal Frelick or Tyler Black(even Turang going back to his profile). If you're going off just pure upside in this system, assuming everyone reaches their potential, it feels like it's -Made -Payne -Pena -Dinges(this would mean he becomes a plus defensive catcher at the MLB level). -Pratt-If he's hitting 25HR, 10% BB%. Then we have so many power arms in the low minors. Most players don't hit their ceilings, but Payne and Pena both have the speed to be elite CFers, but Payne hitting .280 with his BB% and potential for 30 HRs could be an MVP caliber player. Bryan Buxon and... even Garrett Mitchell or Joey Wiemer had somewhat similar upsides. Wiemer couldn't play CF at that level. Hope we hit. Seems like those guys rarely do. From Brinson to Carlos Gomez who was still pretty good for a stretch, Cameron Maybin, Bubba Starling, Jo Adell... and more guys than I could possibly remember.

Yeah, it also shows what a "slump" looked like for Bonds! .421 OBP, during that "slump."

They just find a way to win though. They were 10-20... either last year or the year prior and made a playoff run. I still like Ortiz. I believe he'll find a role with a team in the future as a super utility player. Playing 2B, SS and 3B all at a high level... but he's got a OPS of what, .590 the last two years. I could see a veteran reliever who's been DFA for Ortiz, but his value is at an all-time low. If he had an option, I think you may be able to get something good for him(as in a low level arm with projection and poor command) perhaps, but there's no value. As for Pena, this would make sense and I don't think the money would be the obstacle. I think it's a factor now that you have extended Pratt and you really have to extend Made, but not prohibitive. But it'd cost a guy like Dinges, Adamczewski, maybe Braylon Payne a prospect like that+ a Tate Kuehner type arm... IMO. And that may be light. If we had a lineup that was firing on all cylinders and we had just the holes on the left side of the infield, I'd be much more on board, but we're missing our 3 best power hitters, our bullpen isn't throwing particularly well. I'm still on the Grant Taylor train. I'd give up Adamczewski+another solid prospect for Taylor. But not Pena.

It's not much different than what they did with Hardy, except he didn't have the contract. He played some at AAA, got hurt, miss the rest of the year and then they just threw him out there to sink or swim at the next level. I think he's still going to have pressure because of that contract, not in spite of it, but that's part of what you have to deal with. Pressure to live up to it and most baseball players with talent struggle because they start pressing, but... it's professional baseball. You have to deal with some pressure.

Lloyd has had comically bad luck... but according to those who cover the Packers, he's looked great in TC the last couple years. They sent Lloyd to the Badger Athletic Performance Center... which has done a pretty good job in recent years of helping guys like Watson, Stokes, Williams stay healthy(at least from things like hamstring injuries or calf injuries). I wouldn't count on Lloyd, but... it'd be nice. He adds an element this team has missed since we moved on from Aaron Jones.

I don't think there's any reason to think Parsons is going to be out 6 weeks, but if there is, Thibodeaux is a pretty similar player to LVN(LVN had a higher grade last year). Financially it CAN work. It'd eat up nearly 15M in cap space that I would think they'd want for extensions... and if they're going to do make a move for a player like Thibodeaux, Clowney is available. If the Giants are eating 5M of his cap hit that would make it easier. You're losing 3 years of cheap upside in Oliver and Sorrell, both of whom have been staying with and training with Parsons this off-season. I guess how you view those two would have a big impact. I thought Sorrell looked really good at times last year. I think he'll be a good rotational edge. Oliver is a pretty big swing, but easier to justify as a 3-4 OLBer. His speed, he could be a 3rd down specialist while Thibodeaux is more of a well rounded Edge and it seems like there's still a lot more upside in there. We could just make it Abdul-Carter and go with a Penn State Edge rotation. What other positions do you think we'd be targeting? Run blocking TE? MyCole Pruitt is available(and cheap)... Feels like the Packers have to be higher on someone like Glover than we realize, otherwise I think they'd be doing more to find a swing OT. RB could be helpful.

I thought of Thibedoeau before we drafted another edge. I don't think we have room for him at this point. Van Ness, Dennis-Sutton, Sorrell, Oliver, Parsons... then Mosby or Cox as the 6th(at least to start the year). I think we're pretty good there. The Giants are starting to build a pretty talented young team...

Hmm... are we sure about this? His fastest recorded Fastball was 100.9(in the 9th inning and IIRC it was pitch 150) but they measured it from 10 feet from home plate. Now they measure it from the release. Carnegie Mellon University physics department figured he threw 108.1 using the drag on the ball. I'm not sure that's true, but it's still pretty insasne. It's really an ancillary point, but Nolan Ryan was... just a freak. Threw 98 MPH in the 9th inning after tearing his UCL(which effectively ended his career). ANYWAY... main point, Misiorowski is a freak. You see him maturing every start also. Pitching smarter.