William Contreras Tightened His Zone Behind Home Plate at Just the Right Time

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

In the system's inaugural season, no catcher has used ABS challenges more than William Contreras. Contreras challenged 185 calls during the regular season, leading all catchers by 49. The difference between Contreras's challenge total and that of second-place Tyler Stephenson was greater than that between Stephenson and 23rd-place Cal Raleigh. According to Statcast, he challenged 43 more times than the average catcher would have against the same pitches. Only Victor Caratini challenged a greater number of pitches compared to the expected number.

It helped that the Brewers typically deferred their challenges to Contreras. Milwaukee hitters challenged just 13% of possible overturns, the lowest rate of any offense. When a catcher has access to both of his team’s challenges, he can challenge more aggressively, and it helps more than it hurts. An incorrect challenge won’t stop him from using a second one at the right moment, so turning a ball into a strike on the next attempt is worth more than the small loss of burning that first challenge. Contreras gained more fractions of a run than expected from challenges in all but one month this year.

Still, his approach bordered on mindless aggressiveness for much of the summer. The league success rate on catcher challenges was 58%, but between June and August, Contreras’s was just 49%. In late June, he lost eight consecutive challenges and 14 of 15, and his August success rate bottomed out at 46%.

On the verge of costing his team runs with challenges, another catcher might become more conservative, but that’s not how Contreras is wired. He plays the game fiercely, with a relentless drive to be the best at everything. Instead of backing off, he started challenging even more. The difference is that he became opportunistic. That turned Contreras into one of the most valuable challengers in September and into the postseason.

Month	Challenges	Won%	% Overturn Runs Gained	Net Runs Above Avg
March/April	34	53%	35%	0.1
May	33	61%	46%	0.7
June	33	48%	39%	-0.2
July	23	52%	40%	0.2
August	26	46%	50%	0.2
September	36	75%	57%	0.9
October	20	60%	61%	0.5

Among catchers with at least five postseason overturn opportunities, Contreras and Liam Hicks are tied for the most net runs above average. He’s second to J.T. Realmuto in percentage of possible overturns challenged. Contreras has also gained two inning-ending strikeouts on challenges.

He turned things around by tightening his radius. In August, Contreras challenged seven pitches more than one inch outside the strike zone. In September, he only challenged one. In the postseason, he’s challenged none. Even when home-plate umpire Lance Barrett had 12 calls challenged in Game 2 of the NLDS, Contreras showed restraint. He won three of four challenges, only losing on a first-pitch ball to Xander Bogaerts in the eighth inning that missed by half an inch.

Contreras has also become more disciplined at the plate. He’s cut his chase rate from 28.3% in the regular season to 25.7% in October, boosting his walk rate from 9.5% to 14.3%. Just as being opportunistic has helped him enforce the strike zone, it’s also made him the Brewers’ best postseason hitter. Contreras leads the club with three home runs and a 212 wRC+ in October, spearheading the playoff power surge that brought the team to the World Series.

That’s been more than enough to mask his remaining shortcomings. Contreras has still been a poor framer and blocker in the postseason, but October has unleashed a sharper version of him. He willed the Brewers to a pennant with his bat, and he's started helping his pitchers on the margins when it matters most. Poor ABS use was one of Milwaukee's few glaring weaknesses entering the postseason, but Contreras fixed his side of it when it mattered most.

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