Should the Brewers adjust their lineup vs Rasmussen(and maybe Peralta)?

[BrewerFan]

World Series Game 2: Why I'd Change the Brewers Lineup Against Rasmussen

Board, a little amped up after this Brewers win and thought I'd take a closer look at how we match up in Game 2.

Yeah, yeah, Rasmussen is apparently the Yamamoto of the postseason and Henderson is no match. Not buying it.

I wanted to see how we could attack Rasmussen, battle through at-bats and send him to the showers by the time the average LA fan would just be entering the stadium parking lot.

I remembered an article about Andrew Vaughn being particularly effective against pitchers who work north-south in the zone—four-seamers, changeups, curveballs—but struggling more against sliders and sweepers that move east-west.

That got me looking at Rasmussen's repertoire and whether we could construct a lineup specifically to attack him. I think we can, and the Statcast numbers make a pretty compelling argument.

I understand Bauers has been dealing with a bad foot, but it's the World Series! Gotta suck it up, at least for a few innings. Maybe a trip and a half through the lineup, at which point my theory will either be proven right or... not.

Rasmussen's Pitch Mix — 2026

Pitch	Usage	Avg. velocity
Cutter	28.9%	90.0 mph
Four-seamer	28.0%	95.8 mph
Sinker	23.8%	95.3 mph
Changeup	13.3%	89.6 mph
Curveball / Sweeper	6.1%	80–85 mph

80.7% of his pitches are cutters, four-seamers or sinkers. Milwaukee has several hitters who absolutely hammer those pitches.

My Proposed Brewers Lineup — Game 2

2026 wOBA against each pitch type

#	Hitter	4-Seam	Sinker	Change	Cutter
1	Turang (L) — 2B	.379	.455	.284	.504
2	Chourio (R) — LF	.429	.365	.379	.362
3	Bauers (L) — RF	.434	.411	.330	.363
4	Contreras (R) — C	.324	.398	.305	.503
5	Yelich (L) — DH	.330	.307	.349	.390
6	Vaughn (R) — 1B	.509	.341	.324	.430
7	Mitchell (L) — CF	.319	.413	.276	.538
8	Pratt (R) — SS	.339	.309	.295	.372
9	Ortiz (R) — 3B*	.306	.455	.235	.250

Ortiz's figures from June on. They were solid with the first two months, but he put up a .325/.367/.522 slash with an .889 OPS the 2nd half of the games he played. 

Look at that lineup, then look at Rasmussen's repertoire. His strengths are our strengths.

Some numbers that jump off the page

Brice Turang: A .455 wOBA against sinkers and a ridiculous .504 against cutters. Three home runs against cutters, too. Rasmussen throws that pitch more than anything else.

Garrett Mitchell: The resurgent year of Garrett Mitchell! Every time you write him off or call for Lara to start in center, Mitchell comes through and makes you look like an absolute idiot.

Not me, of course. I DEFINITELY didn't suggest Lara should start in center during the Padres series. Don't bother checking the Game 3 thread. You won't find anything!

(It was absolutely me.)

But look at this: a .538 wOBA against cutters with an .839 SLG! Against a pitcher throwing nearly 29% cutters! He's also at .413 against sinkers.

If Mitchell had a deal with a cryonics company, I'd be wondering if they'd finally perfected the technology. Did someone thaw out a certain former Red Sox left-handed hitter and transplant his mind into 6'3" of UCLA muscle and speed? At least against cutters?

After watching Mitchell play that ball hit right at him yesterday, it's actually easier to believe.

Mitchell struggles against changeups, but he's selective enough to lay off the ones he can't damage. Make Rasmussen locate those pitches perfectly or come into the zone. Easier said than done.

Andrew Vaughn: This is the biggest reason I want him starting. A .509 wOBA against four-seamers, with a .414 average and .701 slugging percentage. He's also at .430 against cutters.

This SHOULD be an Andrew Vaughn game. The fly in the ointment is Bauers' foot.

William Contreras: A .503 wOBA against cutters and .398 against sinkers. Those two pitches account for more than half of Rasmussen's repertoire.

Jake Bauers: A .434 wOBA against four-seamers and .411 against sinkers. Against cutters, he hit .241 but homered twice and drew six walks in 36 plate appearances. I'll take that production.

Jackson Chourio: A .429 wOBA against four-seamers and .379 against changeups. Pretty nice combination.

Joey Ortiz: He hit .455 against sinkers, going 20-for-44 with four doubles and two triples. He also hit .306 against four-seamers with a 53% hard-hit rate. Rasmussen throws more sinkers to righties and more changeups to lefties, making Ortiz particularly interesting. Plus, he's the better defender at third, which could be critical in this game. Ortiz looks absolutely lost when a pitcher is good at elevating it or lives near the top of the zone, but... Rasmussen doesn't as much to play off his change and sinker but that'd be the threat. 

Complete Lineup and Alternatives

For comparison, here are the other three hitters I'd consider.

2026 wOBA by pitch type

Player	4-Seam	Sinker	Change	Cutter
Frelick (L)	.304	.284	.347	.310
Hamilton (L)	.357	.426	.295	.288
Lara (L)	.408	.150	.261	.308

Frelick versus Vaughn

This is the toughest decision because I really hate taking Frelick out of the lineup. If Bauers' foot prevents him from playing the outfield, the whole thing is probably moot. Bauers starts at first, Frelick plays right and Vaughn might get a pinch-hit opportunity.

But I'd LOVE to get Vaughn three at-bats against Rasmussen.

I also trust Frelick considerably more than his numbers suggest. Yeah, I recognize the contradiction in an argument built almost entirely around numbers. He's battling, seeing pitches, making contact and generally giving us good postseason at-bats even when the hits aren't falling. The LAST thing we need is a bunch of one-pitch outs allowing Rasmussen to get into a rhythm.

Still, if Bauers can handle right field for a few innings, I want Vaughn's power, on-base ability and another right-handed bat in that lineup.

Ortiz versus Hamilton

Hamilton's .426 wOBA against sinkers is excellent, but I prefer Ortiz's recent production and defense at third. His biggest offensive concern is how often he's struggled to lay off the high heater lately. He's got to recognize those pitches.

Hamilton gives us a terrific pinch-running option, and I wouldn't mind seeing him drop a bunt toward Caminero. Make Junior charge a well-placed bunt and I'm pretty confident he'll eventually throw one down the first-base line.

He made an exceptional defensive play yesterday, but Ryan Braun made some exceptional plays in 2007, too. Didn't necessarily mean you trusted him with the routine ones.

Mitchell versus Lara

Lara's .408 wOBA against four-seamers is outstanding, but he's at .150 against sinkers. Mitchell has been substantially better against both sinkers and cutters.

Again, .538 woman and .839 SLG against cutters. I'm not sitting that guy against Rasmussen.

Why I Like This Batting Order

Look at the handedness:

L-R-L-R-L-R-L-R-R.

We're alternating lefties and righties through the first eight hitters! The only consecutive same-handed batters are Pratt and Ortiz at the bottom.

Turang leads off, taking some pressure off him to produce runs. Chourio hits second. Turang reaches, Chourio homers, and it's 2–0 instead of 1–0. No holes in that logic!

Bauers third, Contreras cleanup, Yelich fifth and Vaughn sixth. Then Mitchell, Pratt and Ortiz.

That alternating handedness is HUGE when Rasmussen exits. I don't want Bauers, Turang, Yelich and Mitchell occupying four of five spots where Tampa can bring in Seymour, Cleavinger or another lefty and neutralize several of our best bats. Though if it's Cleavinger, I wouldn't necessarily object.

This alignment makes that harder and leaves Murphy plenty of opportunities to counter.

Defensively, start Vaughn at first and Bauers in right. We lose some outfield defense but improve third with Ortiz. Once Rasmussen exits, Frelick can enter in right and Bauers moves back to first. Lara is another option depending on the situation.

The idea is to maximize our offense against the pitcher Tampa needs to give them innings.

Getting Rasmussen Out Early Could Change the Series

Rasmussen's recent numbers are getting plenty of attention, but look at his last five opponents: Athletics, Yankees, Yankees, Guardians, Guardians.

The Yankees were 27th in OPS during the stretch after Judge went down. Cleveland was near the bottom of the league offensively, and Oakland was missing Kurtz, Wilson and several other regulars.

Now he faces Milwaukee, a team that led baseball in opposite-field hitting. That matters against sinkers and cutters. We have hitters willing to let the ball travel rather than trying to pull everything.

If Milwaukee chases Rasmussen before the fifth inning, Tampa's pitching plan takes a massive hit.

They moved him back to Game 2 for additional rest. They need length from him, particularly with three consecutive games coming in Tampa.

We have guys like Romero, Senzatela, Harrison and Drohan available beyond our primary high-leverage arms. Romero with that nasty sweeper. Senzatela, a former starter, throwing 99 with terrific movement now that he's out of Colorado.

Those are luxury options. I don't believe Tampa has comparable bullpen depth.

Force Kevin Cash to cover five innings with relievers and suddenly he's burning arms he'd much rather save for particular situations. That's a big deal over a seven-game series.

And Then There's Logan Henderson

I actually think the pitching matchup favors Milwaukee more than the postseason ERAs suggest. Look at Henderson's recent competition.

Henderson's Last Six Starts

Opponent	IP	ER	K
Cubs	7	2	7
Cubs	5	0	6
Pirates	5	3	8
Phillies	5	1	3
Padres (PS)	5	1	4
Dodgers (PS)	4	2	2
Total	31	9	30

That's a 2.61 ERA against some damn good offenses.

The Cubs finished first in MLB in OPS, the Dodgers second and Pittsburgh sixth. Henderson faced Chicago twice, plus Philadelphia, San Diego and Los Angeles.

Compare the average full-season OPS of their recent opponents:

• Henderson: .743

• Rasmussen: .710

Henderson's Dodgers start was also considerably better than the four runs on the scoreboard suggested. Three hits allowed in four innings, with two throwing errors and a wild pitch contributing to the scoring. Several of those balls were weakly hit grounders. He wasn't getting hammered.

Henderson's Repertoire

Pitch	Usage
Four-seamer	46.4%
Changeup	35.2%
Cutter	15.2%
Sweeper	3.1%

More than 81% four-seamers and changeups. And I wouldn't put much weight on his season-average 93 mph fastball. He was throwing 90–92 earlier in the year, but his velocity climbed substantially as the season progressed.

Now look at how Tampa has handled four-seamers this postseason.

Pitch location	Rays xwOBA	Whiff rate
Top third and above	.224	32.8%
Belt-high and below	.434	20.5%

That's a pretty enormous difference.

Henderson's four-seamer has tremendous ride, and his changeup has exceptional horizontal movement. Tampa has also chased approximately 35% of pitches outside the zone, increasing to 47% with two strikes in the postseason scouting sample.

That's a matchup I really like.

The Rays' Hitters

Yandy Díaz: Terrific contact hitter, particularly against changeups. Attack him upstairs with four-seamers rather than feeding him pitches around the belt.

Jonathan Aranda: Handles changeups well, too. Henderson needs to locate away. Aranda will probably slap it to the opposite field regardless, but hopefully right at a Brewer.

Chandler Simpson: Just a .236 wOBA against changeups. Maybe Henderson gets some swings and misses, or more likely weak contact from the guy with 1% exit velocity and 100% speed. Still dangerous ahead of Caminero.

Junior Caminero: He's Junior Caminero. The guy could hit a BB fired from a shotgun in the dark.

A .443 wOBA against four-seamers. He can hit anything. I'd work down and away with the changeup, occasionally bust him up and in, and concentrate on keeping runners off base ahead of him. We saw yesterday what happens when Tampa gets traffic.

The bottom of their order doesn't particularly concern me. Hicks, Mesa and DeLuca haven't exactly been tearing things up this October.

How I'd Use Henderson

I think Henderson is primed for a career start. Not necessarily his best ever, but six innings, one earned run, eight strikeouts. I think he can give us that, and for this team in this postseason, it'd be enormous.

Murphy has Senzatela, Romero, Hall, Uribe and others available depending on the matchup.

I'd handle Henderson much like Murphy handled Misiorowski yesterday. Mis wasn't completely sharp, started running into trouble late, and Milwaukee already had Hall getting ready. IIRC, Mis fired 103 past Yandy twice before Contreras threw Mesa Jr. out trying to steal.

That's how you do it. Have the next guy ready BEFORE you need him. If Henderson's rolling, let him go. If he starts losing it, don't wait for the damage.

Why Game 2 Is MASSIVE

I'm looking at this much like Game 2 against the Dodgers. We're home, facing the other team's ace, a guy getting the Yamamoto treatment from the national media.

Win this game and Tampa takes a massive body shot.

We're up 2–0, guaranteed to return to Milwaukee, and the Rays have to beat us four times in five games.

Instead, they get three games at the world-class baseball facility known as the Trop. The same place former Ray(he also played with the Brewers for you trivia fans out there). Willy Adames said he had trouble seeing the ball because of the lighting.

Wonderful.

Tampa went 55–26 at home, matching Milwaukee's home record. Of course, we won 103 games, and American Family Field is difficult for opposing teams for other reasons. Namely, these things called FANS.

I'd much rather go to Tampa up 2–0.

My Bottom Line

I'd start Vaughn at first, Bauers in right, Ortiz at third and Mitchell in center. Health permitting. If Bauers has a bad wheel, shoot it up, give it a little nickname and push through!

I hate losing Frelick's bat and defense, but look at what this lineup offers against Rasmussen's most frequently used pitches:

• Turang: .504 wOBA against cutters.

• Contreras: .503 against cutters.

• Mitchell: .538 against cutters with an .839 SLG.

• Vaughn: .509 against four-seamers.

• Bauers: .434 against four-seamers, .411 against sinkers.

• Ortiz: .455 batting average against sinkers.

I don't know that I've ever looked at a potential lineup adjustment where the pitch-type numbers lined up quite this well. And I LOVE the alternating L/R bats, limiting the advantage Tampa can gain by bringing in a lefty while leaving us plenty of ways to counter.

Obviously the Brewers have these same numbers. They're not proprietary stats. This is just how I'd do it, and I'm hoping Murphy makes at least a couple changes.

I'm not a two-time Manager of the Year, soon to be three, but I'd love to see him try it.

Get to Rasmussen early, make Tampa use its bullpen, take Game 2 and head to the Trop up 2–0.

That would be one hell of a way to start this World Series.