An Offseason Dive Into the Brewers Farm System: Third Base

I like your write-ups Clancy...you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever.

The only thing...I've seen you put guys like Dorrian into both 2B and 3B, so why not...Baez, Boeve for example, or even Pratt? These are players who are at least potential 3B. 

Feels like you're missing quite a few guys who probably end up(or at least possibly if they develop) at 3B. 

I feel more confident about the current group of third basemen than in a long time, at least offensively. Each full season level (if they hold Black back) has a top 25ish Brewers prospect at minimum, and the ACL will likely have one of my favorite short-season sleepers.

On that topic, if you’re including Nadal, I would have tossed in Alastre. His season was basically a better version of Nadal’s 2022. Although I realize I might be alone in this.

My question: Black stole 22 bases in 107 games for his teams in 2021-22. How did he pilfer 55 bags in 123 games in 2023 at the AA/AAA level? At 5-10, 204, he does not exactly have the 'speedster-type' body...

1 hour ago, Michael Trzinski said:

My question: Black stole 22 bases in 107 games for his teams in 2021-22. How did he pilfer 55 bags in 123 games in 2023 at the AA/AAA level? At 5-10, 204, he does not exactly have the 'speedster-type' body...

My guess is that he is a smart baserunner, especially with the 2 throw rule. Lots of opportunity as well being on base. My guess is that he is morr of a 30 sb guy in the majors but who knows.

1 hour ago, Michael Trzinski said:

My question: Black stole 22 bases in 107 games for his teams in 2021-22. How did he pilfer 55 bags in 123 games in 2023 at the AA/AAA level? At 5-10, 204, he does not exactly have the 'speedster-type' body...

Eh, you're just picturing track guys. Think about most RBs or DBs. 5-10, 204 is normal.

Speed comes in lots of sizes other than fat. What's Trout? 6'1 240? He's thick and a burner. 

But I think his stealing bags is mostly the result of his good base running. 

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

In this case, some of it is due to space. I'm also trying to keep the players grouped by where they played the most in 2023, even if they had significant time elsewhere on the diamond. Wes Clarke was a special case, given that first base was his primary position, but there was also a LOT of time spent at catcher and catcher was somewhat less crowded.

Boeve, for instance, was covered at second base. Pratt and Baez will be covered at short, where they spent most of their time. Honestly, I think the Crew ought to keep Baz at short - he's got an extremely dynamic bat, and it would be a shame to blow that opportunity at shortstop the way they did with third base in 2008.

Kind of branching off this topic, if they end up moving O’Rae to the outfield, I wonder who plays second at Carolina next season. Pratt, Baez and Bitonti all have been talked about almost exclusively at SS or 3rd. Pratt got some time at 2nd, but is probably the best prospect with a legit chance to stick at SS in the group, and generally you just fill in around that spot. Could be an opening for Gregory Barrios, assuming Areinamo and Guilarte get bumped up.

MLB=Black or FA/trade, AAA=Dorrian/Devanney/Miller AA=Wilken, A+ Adams (some Boeve), A= Baez, Bitoni, Nadal?

Maybe halfway-ish Wilken, Adams, and Baez could all move up a level if playing well.

38 minutes ago, damuelle said:

Barrios and Pratt seem to be the priority shortstops based on this year’s innings. I’ve got Baez projected at 3B, Barrios at 2B, Pratt at SS, O’Rae in CF. Once Bitonti (still 17) is ready for Low-A, he’d likely push Baez into a rover role.

I’d be disappointed if we held either of Areinamo or Guilarte back in Low-A, though I understand High-A may look like a bit of a logjam. Maybe we’d trade one player from that High-A infield surplus.

Areinamo I think is a lock. Guilarte, because of the time lost due to injury, is slightly more likely to be held back. I still think both start in high-A, though.

18 hours ago, clancyphile said:

In this case, some of it is due to space. I'm also trying to keep the players grouped by where they played the most in 2023, even if they had significant time elsewhere on the diamond. Wes Clarke was a special case, given that first base was his primary position, but there was also a LOT of time spent at catcher and catcher was somewhat less crowded.

Boeve, for instance, was covered at second base. Pratt and Baez will be covered at short, where they spent most of their time. Honestly, I think the Crew ought to keep Baz at short - he's got an extremely dynamic bat, and it would be a shame to blow that opportunity at shortstop the way they did with third base in 2008.

Welp...I tried to have a serious conversation...

15 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

The similarity to Braun is striking - Baez has a dynamic bat at a position the Brewers may have a need for a dynamic bat, but like Braun, his defense is a little shaky.

Do you keep them at that position where the bat could stand out (third base for Braun, shortstop for Baez) or do you move them and risk leaving a hole in the lineup (recall the merry-go-round at third since 2007)?

My instinct says keep Baez at short - ride a .900 OPS there. Shortstops who post that are very rare, and it shouldn't be passed up. Not that the Crew doesn't have other good shortstop prospects (Devanney, Zamora, Murray, etc.), but Baez's bat is something else, particularly for that position.

There's no question with Braun, I'm not touching this. Just STOP. I tried to compliment you, but you have these crazy ideas I've been reading for years. Didn't you want to move Frelick back to the IF?

The Braun at 3B is insane and not worth entertaining and if Baez is as bad at 3B(he's so far away, he may not be)...but no, I'm not throwing a guy who commits an error on 10% of the plays, you're negating his bat and it's entirely counter-productive. The players you've suggested play these different positions they're not physically capable of playing...I'm out. 

Braun at 3B loses MOST of his value, how are you STILL making this argument?

You keep Baez at least rotating at short for now because of the big difference between the Braun comparison: he is heading into his low-A season. I think you keep a guy at a position in the minors so long as you think there is a 35-40% chance they stick there. Beyond that, move them to get them used to the new position.

On 11/2/2023 at 5:15 PM, BrewerFan said:

you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever.

Putting everything into stats in such a contrarian manner (boosting afterthought prospects but not crediting highly regarded ones) leads to hitting on about 1 in 100. Basically Suter so far. You could do better throwing darts at the wall

On 11/2/2023 at 9:20 PM, BrewerFan said:

Eh, you're just picturing track guys. Think about most RBs or DBs. 5-10, 204 is normal.

Speed comes in lots of sizes other than fat. What's Trout? 6'1 240? He's thick and a burner. 

But I think his stealing bags is mostly the result of his good base running. 

I get that. I'm just curious of how he goes from 17 to 55. Seems like a huge jump, especially moving up a class or two. I mean, if he could steal 20 bags in the Show, that would be awesome.

On 11/5/2023 at 5:17 AM, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Putting everything into stats in such a contrarian manner (boosting afterthought prospects but not crediting highly regarded ones) leads to hitting on about 1 in 100. Basically Suter so far. You could do better throwing darts at the wall

Yeah...I know. I was just trying to be nice, it was a decent write-up about the prospects...and then out came the "blown opportunity like they did in 2008 at 3B," and I realized...what's the point?