34 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

This is close to mine, except I would flop 2-3 and 4-5. I know some scouting reports were fairly high on Shane Smith’s profile as a reliever before he moved to the rotation, and I think that would enhance his chances of getting taken in the Rule 5 draft.

Yeah, this is spot on imho. The only absolute locks, by my eyes, are RHP Logan Henderson and RHP Shane Smith. Too much high end stuff in both these young men's toolkits to leave exposed - no brainers. I love me some RHP Chad Patrick - he's just a guy who knows how to pitch and really has a nice legit mix of pitches. Will the Brewers protect him? Maybe. Maybe. He's leading the International League in several important categories and even when he's not on top of his game (like his recent start @ Durham), he still finds ways to settle down and give his squad 5 IP or more. That's valuable. I'm very curious to see how the Brewers handle his status after the season is over. He isn't dominant by any stretch but he absolutely can be and has shown he may be just scratching the surface. I like the movement on his pitches - deceptively active.

Yeager was Rule 5 eligible last season and went unprotected. He was also injured the majority of the season, obviously. Even tho he's demonstrated really good form - for the most part; he struggled quite a bit in May and June but has been fantastic for well over a month now - and even tho he plays the part of an 8th and 9th inning guy for Biloxi I don't think he's shown anything he didn't show in his 2023 limited action that would scream they'll protect him. Remember, one of my favorite late season risers in RHP Tobias Myers also went entirely unprotected in 2023. 

Smith is in the best shape of his young career. His change-up continues to be his best pitch. His slider has improved since first entering the system and can certainly be a strikeout pitch when he's ahead in the count. The heater still sits 92-93 mph. He's been much improved, really, since late last summer. Will the Brewers protect him? Probably not. 

Obviously, I love me some Isaac Collins - having driven that hype train since late last spring. He's also getting more looks at different positions in 2024. We're seeing him at 3B and CF on the regular of late so obviously they are trying to expand his utility relevance. He's fast. He's got a very good bat and a good eye for the ball. Will they protect him? Probably not.

If anything comes back as a reminder every year for me, it's that I tend to overvalue these players quite a bit more than the Rule 5 process would indicate. Most teams just tend to leave the majority of their players exposed to the draft. I don't expect any different this Fall for the Brewers. 

44 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

For the most part, but there is one big thing that's different this year - his walks are way down.  In the 2023 AFL he walked 5 in 8.2 IP, which followed 3 in 2.2 IP in his very limited 2023 season, which followed 5.1/9 in his prior AA season in 2022.  This year - 2.2/9. 

The walks perhaps scared teams away more last year than the injury.  This year, no high walk rate or injury.

He's not major league closer material, but in a season where Jacob Barnes was give 46 appearances by his 9th team, I would not at all be surprised if he was taken.

Anything is possible. Just take one glance to the incredible rise of one RHP Max Lazar - obviously, much different circumstances as he left in Minor League FA. BUT, the point being, all these young guys have talent. The right situation, the right circumstances...etc. I personally have a hard time seeing Yeager selected in Rule 5 but it certainly doesn't mean it won't happen. I think Barnes' circumstances aren't a direct correlation to a Rule 5 unproven situation but I get what you're alluding to here.

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Here's my Rule 5 draft hot take. Blake Holub has a sneaky chance of being taken. The stuff models absolutely love his splitter, but he has basically never thrown it this season. Maybe because the Brewers as an org just don't like splitters. I could see a team pick snag him and have him way up the splitter usage.

This is probably because the Brewers as an org also can't really hit the splitter. 😯

I'm kidding (kind of. not really. maybe just a little bit. Or not at all). I mean RHP Tanner Shears has about one of the filthiest splitters I've seen in the past several years. One of my biggest heartbreaks heading into this season was I wasn't going to see the further development of that pitch. 

Anywho, as to Holub, the splitter is a relatively new pitch for him with varying levels of control. In his last interview with Jeff Hem of the Sounds, he didn't even mention the pitch. It was all fastball and slider talk. I personally see the pitch as an off-season development akin to RHP Shane Smith developing the slider in the AFL last season. But, to your point: when he is throwing it it is pretty dang nasty. I could have sworn I've seen him use it in several outings of late with the Shuckers. But, I'm an old geezer who often makes wild n wooly claims on the basics. As you both know and love to point out 😆

Ummmm. Yeah. Just going to leave this here:

Precisely why I added it here and not the Minor League FA thread😅. They've invested 8 years into this trajectory. There is no world I live in as a Brewers fan where Ernesto isn't simply a Bauers-level roster experiment next season on the 40-Man. And, it truly does feel like he  is just scratching the surface and coming into his own. He has already proven he has the plate discipline evolving at a very admirable rate. Just put him on the 40-Man and let's be done with it.

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

Especially because it's a position the Brewers have very much struggled to consistently fill since Fielder left. Maybe Ernesto doesn't pan out, but I don't see how you could just willingly let him go when 1B is such a problem position and Ernesto has such high upside at the position.