Blake Perkins Has Been A Hidden Gem In A Crowded Brewers Outfield

Let’s turn back the clock a few weeks to right before the start of the regular season. When the Opening Day roster was announced, the biggest story was definitely the inclusion of phenom prospect Jackson Chourio, but an equally as intriguing and related topic was the Milwaukee outfield picture. Joining proven veteran Christian Yelich and talented sophomore Sal Frelick was Blake Perkins, a seemingly clear backup option to the three men in front of him on the depth chart. In fact, with other names like Garrett Mitchell still in the mix, it didn’t seem like Perkins would receive much playing time, especially after a relatively lackluster rookie season in 2023.

Fast forward to now. Christian Yelich is on the injured list due to back issues, Garrett Mitchell is on the 60-day IL with a broken hand he suffered in spring training, Jackson Chourio has been struggling at the plate, and Blake Perkins has the second-best offensive numbers out of any qualified player on the team. So what happened?

Let’s start at the very top. In 2023, he slashed .217/.325/.350 over 168 plate appearances. In 2024, so far, he’s slashed .322/.437/.475 over 71 plate appearances. His walk rate has been roughly the same between the two seasons (it was higher in 2023 by 1.0%), and his ISO went from .133 to .153, a modest improvement. Thus, we can conclude that his big jump in batting average has driven up his numbers considerably. So what caused that?

First, he’s striking out slightly less. He punched out at a 27.4% clip last year vs. the 22.5% rate he’s at this year. Second, his BABIP has skyrocketed from .290 to .415. This naturally led me to ask whether the BABIP increase is organic or a function of good luck. His xBA of .247 indicates that he may have been luckier than not, but I wanted to keep digging to see what more I could find.

As a switch hitter, I was naturally curious to see if he had improved his performance on one side of the dish more than the other. Here are his handedness splits from both years.

Okay, so it seems he’s gotten significantly better at hitting right-handed pitching as a lefty. This shows in his heat map as well. When mapping batting average by portion of the strike zone for his lefty plate appearances, we see much better coverage in 2024 (right) than in 2023 (left).

Part of this has also been due to making more aggressive swing decisions. He’s been whiffing more frequently, but by taking more “G hacks,” he’s been able to make harder contact more often, increasing his hard-hit rate from 29.3% to 44.2% and his average exit velocity from 85.8 mph to 89.0 mph. This is relevant for all of his plate appearances, not just his lefty ones. In a side-by-side comparison of his exit velocities for both years, we see higher values, especially in the middle of the zone. 

Some might expect some future regression from Perkins and are probably somewhat correct. If he’s somehow able to maintain an OPS around his current figure of .921 for the whole season, I’d be absolutely blown away. What will make things even more interesting is how the return of Christian Yelich will affect his total playing time.

The Brewers haven’t set a date for Yelich to return, but he’s been participating in on-field activity over the last few days. So far, Perkins has mostly been playing center field while Frelick and Wiemer have been playing left field, and Chourio has been playing right. When Yelich returns to left field, how will Pat Murphy arrange the lineup? Will Perkins stay in until he cools off? Who goes out? How long will it take for him to return to his mortal form if he ever does? In the sport of baseball, no one knows. For now, let’s enjoy the Blake Perkins show while it lasts.