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Brandon Woodruff's Brewers tenure ended (or was, at least, officially interrupted) in a cruelly unfortunate way. His being ruled out for most (if not all) of 2024 presents both an opportunity and a risk for the Brewers. He had a 2.28 ERA over 67 innings, creating 2.4 bWAR in roughly a third of Corbin Burnes's innings, but his injuries proved catastrophic for his chances of a nine-figure contract in free agency.
What it provides the Brewers, however, is the chance to take a flyer on a high-upside pitcher to include in their rotation for multiple years from 2025 onward, at a reasonable price--during which time they’ll also hope to have lots of other talent in the form of Jackson Chourio and Jacob Misiorowski up and running in the major leagues. The risk, however, is sizable, and it remains to be seen whether this would be a worthy investment on their part.
The Injury
Despite Woodruff’s suggestions of a potential return in the second half of 2024, anterior capsule surgeries like the one he had typically require 12-14 months of rehab. There are many pitchers who have never been the same post-recovery. However, in more recent times, Julio Urias is a prime example of a pitcher returning to supreme form. He recorded a 2.49 ERA in almost 80 innings in 2019, then a 2.96 ERA across 185⅔ in 2021, an elite pitching performance. That being said, Urias was 20 when he had the operation, and the concern with Woodruff is twofold:
- He’s now 30 years old, still young for those with this surgery, but it’s his second serious shoulder injury in one season
- Woodruff is a pitcher who relies on elite velocity and spin to overpower hitters with his fastball. Any loss in arm speed in the recovery process could be catastrophic for his performance levels.
While there is no certainty in anything when it comes to the shoulder, the fact that he has been so injury-prone this year creates a serious doubt as to whether he can stay healthy for a full season, never mind perform alongside the cream of the crop at the top level of the sport.
The Brewers Competitive Window
Looking at the Brewers' prospective starting rotation and considering their offensive struggles last year, it remains to be seen just how competitive they can be in 2024, meaning that 2025-2027 might be a perfect time for them to have an ace in their back pocket. With a year for Chourio to develop in the majors, and the expected arrivals of high upside talent of pitchers Jacob Misiorowski, Robert Gasser, Carlos F. Rodriguez and maybe even Josh Knoth (to go along with Aaron Ashby and Freddy Peralta), the rotation could be an area of serious strength during that window.
That being said, players like Woodruff do not come around often, and to have someone of his caliber (should he be fit and healthy) immediately in line to replace Burnes over multiple years would be an incredible boost to their chances. Woodruff showed that he can be a Cy Young candidate when firing last year, including after his return from a subscapularis tear (also on the front of his shoulder).
The Contract
Earlier this winter, Tyler Mahle signed a two year, $22-million contract with the Texas Rangers, with $5.5 million due in the first year and $16.5 million coming in 2025, as well as potential incentives on innings totals that could stretch it out to a $27-million deal. There are a few differentiating factors between the two, however:
- Mahle is scheduled to come back around the All-Star break in 2024, whereas Woodruff is highly unlikely to make any appearance
- Woodruff is a tier above Mahle, who’s career-best season was 180 innings of 3.75-ERA ball in 2021
- Woodruff was estimated to make $14 million in arbitration, before getting hurt, and $20 million in 2025 if he accepted a qualifying offer, meaning the Brewers cut ties at roughly $34 million over the two seasons--though, of course, a healthy Woodruff would have turned down that 2025 salary.
Factoring in each of the above, the Brewers will want to have Woodruff for at least two years of potential pitching availability, meaning any contract is likely to be either a three-year deal, or a not-too-team-friendly team option for a season or two after 2025.
The price for one year of Woodruff's pitching, with all that’s up in the air, may be along the lines of $22 million, so if we use that as a benchmark and go down the team option route. If Woodruff got a deal for 2024 and 2025 for around $22 million in total, the Brewers may want a two-year team option at the end of the deal, as a return for their faith. It probably wouldn't be overly team-friendly, but the shortness of the contract will help. This would be somewhat unprecedented, but maybe a two-year team option worth $50 million would make sense, for a total value of $75 million or so across four seasons if the option were exercised.
If we go down the straight three-year contract path, Woodruff is more likely to get a deal somewhere in the vicinity of $45-50 million, again using the length to avoid long-term financial crisis but also providing Woodruff with a contract that will set him up for life after baseball.
Is it worth it?
For two years of a fully fit and firing Brandon Woodruff in his prime, that’s a steal for the Brewers, but because the risk around him is massive, it's not a completely lopsided one. There is a significant possibility of recurring injuries that might provide something of a drag on a small-market team’s profitability and ability to invest in other resources during what should be prime seasons of competitiveness. The price may also be driven up by David Stearns (who seems intent on picking up as many former Brewers players as possible with the Mets) and the Yankees sniffing around.
What do you think Brewer Fanatics? Would you make either one of these deals?
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