BREAKING: Brewers Trade For Dustin May And JoJo Romero

6 minutes ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

Nah, we'll just let the Porsche sit in the garage.

The reality is, we have NO IDEA if this is "half price." The value of an asset is what you can get someone to pay for the asset. And we can index that to all kinds of different indicators, but I guarantee the Brewers weren't looking at a full price offer and decided to take the half price one.

Maybe you think they should've been able to get more. Okay. Maybe you think they shouldn't have moved these guys at all. That's fine too. But let's not get all high and mighty with "value-based thinking" and then throw out a spurious argument by analogy. 

If the Brewers regret this trade, they'll do so in 2028 or 2029. Borrowing from theoretical future value is how these transactions work. The fact is, the Brewers valued these guys at Dustin May and JoJo Romero. They probably have a lot more information to base that on than we do, and the idea that they have other prospects they like more is probably part of the calculus. I would argue that your jump to call that line of thinking dumb is what's moving us away from "value-based thinking."

Just because the market sets the price does not mean that we as a buyer need to pay that price if we don’t find it to be reasonable. 

As others have suggested, if there’s a true logjam where selling must happen, I’d be much more understanding about going after bigger assets.

14 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Can we please, please stop using the justification of “well Chourio and Lara are locked up long-term, so these guys are blocked anyway” to explain away this trade.

We are all smarter than this. This is a value based thinking forum. This is a value based thinking organization.

No one here is selling their Porsche for half price just because they also have a Lamborghini and a 1 stall garage. 

Except it can and does work that way often times. If we have many OFers that are all comparable value wise, plus maybe one spot they could fit into…they very much so become more expendable than a pitcher or someone at a more premium position we aren’t as lucrative in.

It isn’t like we have a ton of OF prospects and the MLB roster has no solidified people taking any of those spots up. Chourio is 100% in one of those spots. And for all the glazing of the Luis Lara contract, he now is very much so going to get every opportunity to play moving forward…for better or worse.

We can sit here and bang the drum all day on how we should have held onto these guys to get the hitter we need etc., but it takes two to tango and a trade partner to even have said players for it to even matter. Let alone value these prospects like an armchair prospect evaluator on Fangraphs does.

But really, the best explanation, the Brewers probably value these guys like they are worth a May and Romero. The Brewers probably don’t even view them as Top 100 prospects. The Brewers probably don’t check Fangraphs for trade values. To the Brewers, these guys are worth a couple rentals. People are upset because a few prospects lists tell them they should believe otherwise.

What's the over/under on how many times in the next 8 weeks Sophia mentions that Dustin May took a no-hitter into the 8th inning vs the Brewers?

Manfredi sort of gives me DL Hall vibes. I'm fine with giving up him & Martinez for Senzatela.

24 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Can we please, please stop using the justification of “well Chourio and Lara are locked up long-term, so these guys are blocked anyway” to explain away this trade.

We are all smarter than this. This is a value based thinking forum. This is a value based thinking organization.

No one here is selling their Porsche for half price just because they also have a Lamborghini and a 1 stall garage. 

There were dozens of examples I wanted to use... but the worst part of this is how we found yet ANOTHER gem and he was performing exceptionally well for 18... 

And if you trade him in the offseason or when you're NOT rushed, you probably get fair market value. If you keep him 2-3 years, who knows, maybe HE becomes your 3rd OF... given the big cannon he has for an arm and talent he has. 



Also, YES, this Front Office is GREAT. 

My wife's also beautiful. If she's got stomach poisoning and craps down her leg, I'm not going to pretend she didn't because she's been great in the past and is otherwise great. I'm going to say..."that's disgusting... why would you do that(if you could help it) and I REALLY wish you would not have hit that cashmere rug." 

I don't have a Cashmere rug, but I want to articulate the scope of his bad they shat themselves here. 


 

7 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Except it can and does work that way often times. If we have many OFers that are all comparable value wise, plus maybe one spot they could fit into…they very much so become more expendable than a pitcher or someone at a more premium position we aren’t as lucrative in.

It isn’t like we have a ton of OF prospects and the MLB roster has no solidified people taking any of those spots up. Chourio is 100% in one of those spots. And for all the glazing of the Luis Lara contract, he now is very much so going to get every opportunity to play moving forward…for better or worse.

We can sit here and bang the drum all day on how we should have held onto these guys to get the hitter we need etc., but it takes two to tango and a trade partner to even have said players for it to even matter. Let alone value these prospects like an armchair prospect evaluator on Fangraphs does.

But really, the best explanation, the Brewers probably value these guys like they are worth a May and Romero. The Brewers probably don’t even view them as Top 100 prospects. The Brewers probably don’t check Fangraphs for trade values. To the Brewers, these guys are worth a couple rentals. People are upset because a few prospects lists tell them they should believe otherwise.

This is kind of insulting to the average poster here, I like to think that’s it’s a little bit smarter base here than Twitterverse and most have a little more prospect than just pulling up the latest top 30 after a trade and seeing how high or low the prospects in the trade are on it.

And somehow the Guardians got an allstar starter for 4 low level prospects 

This trade has the long-term potential to hand the Devil Magic BACK to the Cardinals.

Woof.

Either would have been fine. Both really hurts.

Hope Jojo doesn't suffer from Brewers Chafin/Norris/Rogers Syndrome

14 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Except it can and does work that way often times. If we have many OFers that are all comparable value wise, plus maybe one spot they could fit into…they very much so become more expendable than a pitcher or someone at a more premium position we aren’t as lucrative in.

It isn’t like we have a ton of OF prospects and the MLB roster has no solidified people taking any of those spots up. Chourio is 100% in one of those spots. And for all the glazing of the Luis Lara contract, he now is very much so going to get every opportunity to play moving forward…for better or worse.

We can sit here and bang the drum all day on how we should have held onto these guys to get the hitter we need etc., but it takes two to tango and a trade partner to even have said players for it to even matter. Let alone value these prospects like an armchair prospect evaluator on Fangraphs does.

But really, the best explanation, the Brewers probably value these guys like they are worth a May and Romero. The Brewers probably don’t even view them as Top 100 prospects. The Brewers probably don’t check Fangraphs for trade values. To the Brewers, these guys are worth a couple rentals. People are upset because a few prospects lists tell them they should believe otherwise.

All very good points. 

The good argument against this trade is: "I think these guys have higher value, and the Brewers should have waited because, at the very least, they'd have been able to sell them for more at a later date." Or, "One of these guys is going to be in the top 3 Lara/Chourio/Payne/Adamczewski/Mitchell/Frelick/Lockridge/etc."

Those arguments may end up being right on. Nobody has any idea what Frias and Ragsdale will do as big-leaguers. I'm not up in arms about this trade in any way. I think it seems reasonable. But I'll happily admit that I'm nervous we didn't get more for two really fun, young OFers. 

I'm just not sure how anyone can be so absolutely certain this is an overpay and compare it to crapping down one's leg or selling a luxury vehicle for cheap. All of that just feels like Internet forum venting. Which is fine. But then, like, don't pretend it's something else.

Jeez the NL is loaded.  It was already so much better.  Now Cubs, Pads, Pirates, Phills all add lots more.    Who would've thought we'd be longing to be in the AL

10 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Except it can and does work that way often times. If we have many OFers that are all comparable value wise, plus maybe one spot they could fit into…they very much so become more expendable than a pitcher or someone at a more premium position we aren’t as lucrative in.

It isn’t like we have a ton of OF prospects and the MLB roster has no solidified people taking any of those spots up. Chourio is 100% in one of those spots. And for all the glazing of the Luis Lara contract, he now is very much so going to get every opportunity to play moving forward…for better or worse.

We can sit here and bang the drum all day on how we should have held onto these guys to get the hitter we need etc., but it takes two to tango and a trade partner to even have said players for it to even matter. Let alone value these prospects like an armchair prospect evaluator on Fangraphs does.

But really, the best explanation, the Brewers probably value these guys like they are worth a May and Romero. The Brewers probably don’t even view them as Top 100 prospects. The Brewers probably don’t check Fangraphs for trade values. To the Brewers, these guys are worth a couple rentals. People are upset because a few prospects lists tell them they should believe otherwise.

Top 100 on Baseball America, but care to explain what an "armchair evaluator" is?

That's generally where scouts watch tape OR players play. From... an armchair. 

 

This jojo guys is hurt right(which makes this trade even more asenine).   Just have him fail the physical and start over

We gave up more for May than Detroit got for Skubal. 

So putting cost aside, going to try to piece together what this means for the roster the rest of the way. 

May goes to the rotation with Harrison also joining him. So I would guess Sproat almost inevitably goes to the pen and we go with a 6 man rotation the rest of the regular season of Miz, Harrison, Drohan, Henderson, Gasser, and May.

Hopefully the move to the pen is what Sproat needs in the short term. Stallings is going to get optioned again and Bryse Wilson and Joel Kuhnel are dead men walking once Jojo is healthy enough to return, unless they prefer to send Sproat to Nashville and keep him stretched out. 

1 minute ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

All very good points. 

The good argument against this trade is: "I think these guys have higher value, and the Brewers should have waited because, at the very least, they'd have been able to sell them for more at a later date." Or, "One of these guys is going to be in the top 3 Lara/Chourio/Payne/Adamczewski/Mitchell/Frelick/Lockridge/etc."

Those arguments may end up being right on. Nobody has any idea what Frias and Ragsdale will do as big-leaguers. I'm not up in arms about this trade in any way. I think it seems reasonable. But I'll happily admit that I'm nervous we didn't get more for two really fun, young OFers. 

I'm just not sure how anyone can be so absolutely certain this is an overpay and compare it to crapping down one's leg or selling a luxury vehicle for cheap. All of that just feels like Internet forum venting. Which is fine. But then, like, don't pretend it's something else.

See Gausman, Kevin.

Or... ya know, MOST of the pitchers traded. That's how. 

Yes we have a lot of OFers but Frias has a higher ceiling than every single one of them. Lara, Adamczewski, Payne, Ragsdale, Strosnider, Jones, Antunez, all of them

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

We'll see how you feel in a couple of years when these guys rip our hearts out several times per season...

Ragsdale sooner obviously, but 3 years from now, they could be 2/3 of their starting outfield, and we will look back on this trade and cry.

Or it could be the Yelich trade.  Where we look back and laugh.

You were really against that too.   Just sayin".

I know you are a big minor league guy but the odds dictate that neither player will amount ton anything meaningful.

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

This is kind of insulting to the average poster here, I like to think that’s it’s a little bit smarter base here than Twitterverse and most have a little more prospect than just pulling up the latest top 30 after a trade and seeing how high or low the prospects in the trade are on it.

I think it is more so a combination of what are these guys ranked by the ‘experts’ and people just fall in love with our own prospects because they are probably the only ones they even remotely follow/know anything about.

I mean if we flipped it around and were acquiring these guys no one would know who they are and wouldn’t be nearly as excited. We would be searching for flaws most likely.

Just now, StearnsFTW said:

Or it could be the Yelich trade.  Where we look back and laugh.

 

You were really against that too.   Just sayin".

 

I know you are a big minor league guy but the odds dictate that neither player will amount ton anything meaningful.

Dustin may is not Christian Yelich 

1 minute ago, MrTPlush said:

I think it is more so a combination of what are these guys ranked by the ‘experts’ and people just fall in love with our own prospects because they are probably the only ones they even remotely follow/know anything about.

I mean if we flipped it around and were acquiring these guys no one would know who they are and wouldn’t be nearly as excited. We would be searching for flaws most likely.

Look at the Cardinals fans reactions online...

They think they made fools of us, and I think they are correct.

53 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

This is the last I'll say on this trade - as I said, I like both players we received in return. I really think they can solidify a team strength. Hopefully, they stay healthy. The cost is just too steep to make the deal from my vantage point and It is universally seen as a steep price and an overpay by anyone I trust in the twitterverse and, to me, this overpay is made worse because you gift it in division. That's the end of my sentiments. In the end, I'll simply hope all players involved excel and May and Romero pitch key post-season innings.

One has to think the Brewers know and lean on they have Strosnider and Jones incoming, they love Adamczewski (who doesn't?), Payne is ascending and premium Capital invested, and Antunez is showing real promise in limited Low-A exposure. We also know, the Brewers have shown they can go out and grab these types of players across multiple acquisition formats and they trust they will do it again.

And, all this reasoning aside: it was still a steep price to pay and a steeper price than most teams have paid for other players.

I think the ceiling is too high to deal for rentals of this caliber. I am fine selling high if that is what they think they are doing...I just think the value they got for these assets is poor. I really hope this one doesn't bite us. Overall I hated this deadline because we didn't even get a bat which was my primary hope. 

They really must think Frias will never lift the ball. I tend to agree the swing is ugly but there is better ways to use these assets. 

41 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

But sometimes people don't have enough garage space for their 10 Lambos. As in..;

The Brewers have an upcoming roster crunch// and the whole league knows it.

And the 18-year-old in Wilson was a part of that?

The fact the Brewers didnt add one bat to this pathetic offense right now is absolutely criminal and pathetic. 

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Top 100 on Baseball America, but care to explain what an "armchair evaluator" is?

That's generally where scouts watch tape OR players play. From... an armchair. 

 

I can’t speak for all places and all people, but Fangraphs is being referenced here quite a bit for their high ranking of Frias.

The lead prospect analyst at Fangraphs has zero years of experience evaluating talent for MLB teams. Certainly many of these people have experience and time to research prospects…and can talk to scouts and front office personnel…but I just feel their opinions get weighted much too highly and that reality of actual team evaluation may not always match it.

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

See Gausman, Kevin.

Or... ya know, MOST of the pitchers traded. That's how. 

That doesn't connect at all, though.

Maybe the Brewers like May and Romero a lot more than Gausman. Maybe the Blue Jays valued what they got from the Cubs really highly. Maybe the Brewers are just not that high on Frias and Ragsdale. 

It's fine to THINK we gave up too much. But the certainty with which some folks have pronounced it is a big red flag that undercuts their take. I promise you, most big-league GMs are very fluent in uncertainty and very aware that the error bars around prospect evaluations are massive.