Brewers Need Freddy Peralta to Step Up in Game 1 Wild Card Series Start. Can He?

Little has been decided about how the Brewers will align their pitching staff for the National League Wild Card Series. The only certainty is that Freddy Peralta will start Game 1 on Tuesday afternoon.

Peralta was always the clear-cut choice to start Milwaukee’s first playoff game. The strikeout ability and high upside of his stuff separate him from the club’s other bulk arms, all of whom profile as back-of-the-rotation pitchers. That’s not a knock against them. It’s simply an acknowledgment that if anyone in the group can dominate a strong lineup, it’s Peralta.

However, Peralta comes with his own set of question marks. He’s coming off an inconsistent season in which he did not realize his upside nearly as often as one would hope or expect from a front-line starter.

Most of the problems stem from elusive command. Whether he was inflating his pitch count by failing to execute competitive two-strike pitches or suffering from the long ball by making mistakes over the plate, Peralta’s performance was inefficient for good portions of the season. He racked up strikeouts, but ran into more trouble than you'd like when he got into an opposing lineup a third time, and rarely gave the team the deep starts they craved.

He finished the regular season with a 3.68 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 4.41 DRA. That’s the performance of a quality big-league starting pitcher, but it’s a bit underwhelming for a seven-year veteran with the talent to be one of the game’s best pitchers for a contending club.

The positives were Peralta’s durability and work ethic. He made all 32 of his scheduled regular-season starts and logged a career-high 173 ⅔ innings. Throughout that time, he worked diligently to reach a comfort zone on the mound, both physically and mentally.

It’s not abnormal for pitchers to tinker with mechanics throughout a long season, but Peralta’s changes were more than occasional minor alterations. He switched his positioning on the rubber multiple times, beginning the year on the third-base side and ending on the first-base side. He also reduced the crossfire action in his delivery while driving down the mound.

Peralta made another round of alterations in August, abandoning his windup to pitch exclusively out of the stretch and employing a variety of leg lifts to begin his motion.

“I had something going on back then physically, and I was trying to make the adjustment to what made me feel better back then,” Peralta explained before a team workout on Monday.

After that, he felt everything started to click.

“When I changed that… me and [pitching coach Chris Hook], we [decided], let’s keep doing it this way because there’s no issues when you’re pitching from the stretch. And I think from there, even my mind, it was clear. Everything was different.”

The results improved. Peralta posted an ERA of 3.06 in the second half, marking the second straight season in which his surface-level output improved after the All-Star break. Beginning with the start against the Dodgers in August in which his varied delivery patterns entered the picture, his ERA was 2.79 in nine starts.

“I had some hard moments early in the season, because I wasn’t finding the strike zone sometimes, or maybe my slider wasn’t working really well,” he said,. “But we were able to make the adjustment, and I finished really strong.”

“He’s been doing a tremendous job of getting better throughout the year, and I think he kind of helped himself to be in a great spot mind-wise to get to here and to be ready for this game,” Willy Adames said. “I think he’s in a great position, and I believe he’s going to do a great job.”

Beneath the shiny exterior of Peralta’s second-half splits, whether he truly threw the ball better after his changes is less clear. His strikeout, walk, and home run rates worsened, leading to less inspiring reviews from ERA estimators. He also threw more non-competitive pitches, defined by TruMedia as a pitch located more than 18 inches from the center of the strike zone.

Peralta stated last month that he was emphasizing pitching to contact over chasing swing-and-miss, in pursuit of efficiency. However, he still issues too many free passes, makes too many unproductive misses, and gets burned on too many mistakes over the plate for one to say he’s improved on that front.

The flaws that remain in Peralta’s game and led to regular-season inconsistency could prove costly in the playoffs. A rough outing in a loss would bring his team to the brink of elimination in a three-game series.

With these realities in mind, along with an opponent .840 OPS the third time through the order and beyond this year, the Brewers cannot approach Peralta’s Game 1 start in the way they may have for past aces Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. Pat Murphy must apply a short leash.

Peralta did finish the regular season with two of his better starts of the year, allowing three runs in 10 ⅓ innings. Efficiency remained an issue, but Peralta allowed just two hits while striking out 16 of 39 batters faced (41%).

That form would be enough on Tuesday against the Mets. If Peralta limits New York to a pair of runs in five innings, he’ll have done his job.

His history inspires both promise and uncertainty. It’s a reminder that Peralta could dominate in a special outing--or, just as easily, put the Brewers in a hole with a shaky one. Once he toes the rubber, all that matters is how he looks in the moment. All the adjustments he's made across a long season and all the innings and outings have been learning opportunities. Tuesday will be the test for which he's studied all year.