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    Brewers Trade for Red Sox Righty Quinn Priester, Marking Shift into Scramble Mode in Starting Rotation


    Matthew Trueblood

    In a surprising move to patch the gaping holes in their starting rotation, the Brewers swung a trade Monday that bundles up two valuable long-term assets and swaps them for—they hope—immediate help.

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    The Milwaukee Brewers aren't any less worried about their starting rotation and its myriad injury problems than their fans are. They proved that Monday morning, trading outfield prospect Yophery Rodriguez and a pick in Competitive Balance Round A in July's MLB Draft to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for right-handed starting pitcher Quinn Priester. It's an unvarnished response to losing not only Tobias Myers and Aaron Ashby during spring training, but Aaron Civale and Nestor Cortes since the beginning of the season.

    While the team might hope they'll get Civale and Myers back soon, it's unlikely that they'll get substantial help from Cortes, Ashby or DL Hall before the latter part of May. Jose Quintana will join their rotation this weekend in Arizona, but that still left too many innings uncovered at the big-league level. By trading for Priester, they're stopping the gap with a former first-round pick who once carried considerable prospect sheen, but who has now been involved in two "change-of-scenery" trades in nine months.

    Priester, 24, was the Pirates' first-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. He made national top-100 prospect lists in multiple preseason cycles, but his stuff didn't progress the way scouts hoped, and minor injury problems kept his inning counts low even as he tried to gain polish and ascend the minor-league ladder. He finally reached the major leagues in 2023, but has not found success there in parts of two seasons. Last July, the Pirates traded him to Boston for fellow former top prospect Nick Yorke.

    However, Priester has made some interesting adjustments this spring, which seem to have caught the Brewers' eye. He's added a cutter, largely installing it in the stead of his unimpressive four-seam fastball, and he's deepened his arsenal of breaking stuff by sprinkling in a sweeper that has flashed plus. Though he's only appeared for Triple-A Worcester, the presumption here is that he'll slot into the big-league picture almost as soon as he enters the Brewers organization. 

    To get hold of Priester, rather than settling for standard waiver-wire fodder, the Brewers parted with Rodriguez, an intriguing (though far-off) outfield prospect with multiple tools that could end up above average. They'll also surrender a chunk of what was one of the league's deepest troves of draft capital, sending the Sox a pick that will fall inside the top 40 overall. It's a hefty price to pay, but the Crew are clearly convinced that Priester is poised to reach another level with the adjustments he's made this year—and they clearly feel a great deal of urgency to upgrade their pitching depth.

    It's hard not to cast this as a disappointing development, because the team's offseason activities (limited though they were) all tried to ensure that this wouldn't be necessary. Bringing in Cortes, Quintana, Tyler Alexander, Grant Anderson, and Grant Wolfram to supplement a pitching staff that already figured to work Brandon Woodruff back into the mix after winning a second straight division title, the front office surely anticipated being able to wait longer and move more measuredly than this. As it is, they're rolling the dice on a talented and evolving hurler, but at a steeper price than they would have liked to be forced to pay at such an early date.

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    Seems like an overpay. I would have rather just let this be "re-tooling" year than give up some of the key assets we have acquired (Yophery, draft pick, and a PTBNL).  Really steep price for an unproven pitcher.

    If this was for an established starter I'd be all in

    And yes this is a problem because the Cortes, Civale, Quintana, Hall additions have been relatively fruitless (save a good start by Cortes and some quality starts by Civale last year), but the hope was no more desperation moves, and this reeks of desperation move.

    Sorry that's the end of my rant.  Will miss Yophery - I think he has a shot at being not just a regular MLB player, but a possible all star with his raw tools, personality and energy.

    • Like 2
    • Disagree 1

    Not only do I agree with all of the above sentiments, but this is the type of trade that really frustrates. 
     

    Just like many of the Brewers trades during the season last year, they acquired pitchers who have struggled so they could buy low in hopes of working their magic with them. I don’t mind that as a basic strategy - but when you hue towards that strategy too much, you get situations like this year - a lot of not especially talented guys that you hope to coax an over performance out of. I find that frustrating, but still can dig it during a retooling year.

    But to pay a heavy ransom for a guy with below average stuff, who has performed miserably, and looks like a big prospect miss - just because they are so cocky they can turn any pitcher who fits their mold around? That’s when I start to feel like they have fallen a little too in love with their “approach”, and have started to eschew any type of scouting that measures prior success. I think it’s becoming an arrogant approach and am quite dismayed this morning. Very dismayed.

    • Like 5
    3 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

    That’s when I start to feel like they have fallen a little too in love with their “approach”, and have started to eschew any type of scouting that measures prior success. I think it’s becoming an arrogant approach and am quite dismayed this morning. Very dismayed.

    I don’t understand your point here. Are you saying you don’t think they scouted Priester?  Or are you saying they shouldn’t have made the trade because he hasn’t had prior success?

    • Like 3
    23 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

    I am saying I feel that they have fallen so in love with their ability to fix players of questionable ability, that they have started to ignore some pretty glaring red flags.

    I do think there's some valid reasoning with this. I mean Brewers have continued to mostly have really good pitching success but how much of that is because of our elite defense and how much of it is because our pitching is good?

    Here is the Brewers SP FIP- by year since 2021.

    2021 - 77 FIP-

    2022 - 95 FIP-

    2023 - 98 FIP-

    2024 - 110 FIP-

    Even if you want to factor in something like contact quality saying they are just giving up soft contact now. Here's the xwOBA against the last 4 seasons from our SP.

    2021 - .283 xwOBA (38 points better than league average SP)

    2022 - .300 xwOBA (14 points better than league average SP)

    2023 - .308 xwOBA (18 points better than league average SP)

    2024 - .324 xwOBA (8 points worse than league average SP)

    I do think they partly feel like their defense can afford them to go after these project pitchers and get by with weak contact and average to below average stuff pitchers. Is this sustainable though?

    • Like 3
    54 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

    Is this sustainable though?

    That's the (insert Brewers payroll estimate of your preference here) dollar question for sure.

    Going back to 1998 (first year with 30 teams) there are 780 individual full team pitching seasons.

    2023 whole staff ERA-FIP of -0.48 ranks 20th on that list and the 2024 whole stafff ERA-FIP of -0.54 is tied for 10th.

    2023 bullpen WPA of +11.73 ranks 7th on that list and the 2024 bullpen WPA of +13.14 is 4th.

    I thought they were due for major regression in both areas coming into 2024 and they somehow managed to better their already ridiculous results from 2023.

    I'm expecting regression again this year, but still hoping they can come in around say a -0.40 ERA-FIP gap and something like +6 bullpen WPA.

    But yeah, ultimately if your success depends too much on shaving a half run off your FIP and posting +10 bullpen WPA seasons...that's a pretty tight rope to walk year after year after year.

    • Like 1
    1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

    I do think there's some valid reasoning with this. I mean Brewers have continued to mostly have really good pitching success but how much of that is because of our elite defense and how much of it is because our pitching is good?

    Here is the Brewers SP FIP- by year since 2021.

    2021 - 77 FIP-

    2022 - 95 FIP-

    2023 - 98 FIP-

    2024 - 110 FIP-

    Even if you want to factor in something like contact quality saying they are just giving up soft contact now. Here's the xwOBA against the last 4 seasons from our SP.

    2021 - .283 xwOBA (38 points better than league average SP)

    2022 - .300 xwOBA (14 points better than league average SP)

    2023 - .308 xwOBA (18 points better than league average SP)

    2024 - .324 xwOBA (8 points worse than league average SP)

    I do think they partly feel like their defense can afford them to go after these project pitchers and get by with weak contact and average to below average stuff pitchers. Is this sustainable though?

    I agree. And how sustainable will it be when you compound your misfires by overpaying to correct for them subsequently. I’m on board with their approach generally, but this morning is the exact direction I don’t want to see it go towards. 
     

    Now, this is the first time they’ve done this, but I am just really hoping it doesn’t continue this way. Rodriguez alone is hard to part with. Even if it’s dealing from organizational strength. But coupled with the pick? It reeks of desperation.

     

    I mean, if this trade was reversed, we would be saying Arnold is cresting new levels of highway robbery (Contreras trade not included, of course).

    20 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

    I agree. And how sustainable will it be when you compound your misfires by overpaying to correct for them subsequently. I’m on board with their approach generally, but this morning is the exact direction I don’t want to see it go towards. 
     

    Now, this is the first time they’ve done this, but I am just really hoping it doesn’t continue this way. Rodriguez alone is hard to part with. Even if it’s dealing from organizational strength. But coupled with the pick? It reeks of desperation.

     

    I mean, if this trade was reversed, we would be saying Arnold is cresting new levels of highway robbery (Contreras trade not included, of course).

    Your take assumes Priester at best becomes a serviceable backend starter. What if he ends up closer to a mid-rotation arm? 5-6 years of that is definitely worth what we gave up isn’t it?

    9 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

    Not only do I agree with all of the above sentiments, but this is the type of trade that really frustrates. 
     

    Just like many of the Brewers trades during the season last year, they acquired pitchers who have struggled so they could buy low in hopes of working their magic with them. I don’t mind that as a basic strategy - but when you hue towards that strategy too much, you get situations like this year - a lot of not especially talented guys that you hope to coax an over performance out of. I find that frustrating, but still can dig it during a retooling year.

    But to pay a heavy ransom for a guy with below average stuff, who has performed miserably, and looks like a big prospect miss - just because they are so cocky they can turn any pitcher who fits their mold around? That’s when I start to feel like they have fallen a little too in love with their “approach”, and have started to eschew any type of scouting that measures prior success. I think it’s becoming an arrogant approach and am quite dismayed this morning. Very dismayed.

    Seems to me the Crew has earned fans' trust.  They've turned an awful lot of guys around, no?

    30 minutes ago, SF70 said:

    Your take assumes Priester at best becomes a serviceable backend starter. What if he ends up closer to a mid-rotation arm? 5-6 years of that is definitely worth what we gave up isn’t it?

    Right and my “take” involves feeling that the Brewers’ brass is overestimating their ability to rectify someone as bad as Priester. 

    “What if” is not really a great way of approaching player acquisition. It is quite clear both the Pirates, and the Red Sox believe Priester is not going to turn into a mid-rotation arm. I trust the Brewers to coax pitching talent better than those two organizations. But hoping/betting you can coax talent is a fine strategy when you are not giving up a lot in talent or money to acquiring a poorly performing player. Paying heavy prices in prospects and draft picks to do so is generally ill advised, and something that would appear to be rooted in desperation, with a  bit of hubris mixed in.

    I’m not saying he won’t be good. I’m saying paying this price for a player who has performed terribly, and far below expectations, is not a good method to subscribe to.

    10 minutes ago, SandyTolan said:

    Seems to me the Crew has earned fans' trust.  They've turned an awful lot of guys around, no?

    Yes, and it also seems to me that trust and blind faith are two different things. I do generally trust Matt Arnold. I am saying that there are signs that his approach is starting to appear, at least, to trend too far in the direction of “we can fix anyone who has traits we like. And we can entirely build our pitching staff around that.”

    I am saying that it is starting to go a little too far in that direction, and paying a very steep price for someone who has been as stupendously awful as Priester has in the majors, is not a good sign.

    3 hours ago, Sugarrayray said:

    Yes, and it also seems to me that trust and blind faith are two different things. I do generally trust Matt Arnold. I am saying that there are signs that his approach is starting to appear, at least, to trend too far in the direction of “we can fix anyone who has traits we like. And we can entirely build our pitching staff around that.”

    I am saying that it is starting to go a little too far in that direction, and paying a very steep price for someone who has been as stupendously awful as Priester has in the majors, is not a good sign.

    Haven't it cross your mind that maybe trading for an established starting pitcher will take a much heavier toll?

    55 minutes ago, Terry said:

    Haven't it cross your mind that maybe trading for an established starting pitcher will take a much heavier toll?

    It has crossed my mind. Has it crossed your mind that this package is not entirely dissimilar to the package the Brewers got for Corbin Burnes? 
     

     

    14 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

    It has crossed my mind. Has it crossed your mind that this package is not entirely dissimilar to the package the Brewers got for Corbin Burnes? 
     

     

    Are you trying to compare Yophery Rodriguez to Joey Ortiz And DL hall, whom were both top 100 guy? I mean I love Yophery, but that is nuts.

    15 minutes ago, Terry said:

    Are you trying to compare Yophery Rodriguez to Joey Ortiz And DL hall, whom were both top 100 guy? I mean I love Yophery, but that is nuts.

    DL Hall had not been a top 100 prospect for some time at that point. He was also looked at as someone with strong reliever risk and an almost absurd injury history…..

    Ortiz was a lower half top hundred prospect by some publications. Some publications this year have Yophery as a lower half top 100 prospect, and others have included him as someone who could be added soon. 
     

    The Brewers got a nice draft pick in what was considered an extremely poor draft class. The Red sox are getting a similar draft pick in what is considered a better draft class…..I agree that the Brewers got a better haul, but considering each haul as “not entirely dissimilar” is…..nuts???

    15 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

    DL Hall had not been a top 100 prospect for some time at that point. He was also looked at as someone with strong reliever risk and an almost absurd injury history…..

    Ortiz was a lower half top hundred prospect by some publications. Some publications this year have Yophery as a lower half top 100 prospect, and others have included him as someone who could be added soon. 
     

    The Brewers got a nice draft pick in what was considered an extremely poor draft class. The Red sox are getting a similar draft pick in what is considered a better draft class…..I agree that the Brewers got a better haul, but considering each haul as “not entirely dissimilar” is…..nuts???

    From FanGraphs:

    Rodriguez is a fine lower-level outfield prospect. He isn’t super toolsy or projectable even though he’s very young, but he has advanced feel for the strike zone and good (if awkward looking) plate coverage. He can spray pitches from foul line to foul line with his punchy all-fields swing, and he projects as a complementary corner outfielder (he’s fast but isn’t a skilled center field defender) with roughly 45-grade contact and power. The main return in this trade is absolutely the draft pick.

    BA also ranked him as 14 in our system before the trade.

    Also, 

    There are somewhat disparate opinions about the upcoming draft class. I think it’s slightly better than average in the 50-75 range; the tier of player you’d find in a typical second round extends into the third. That sort of depth doesn’t really have an impact on pick 33, but the Brewers’ draft picks are valuable to them because they’re in a smaller market and need to grow their own talent, and their dev group is good at doing exactly that. 



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