Brewers Video
It's hard to blame Orioles manager Brandon Hyde for not wanting to send out more right-handed batters than necessary against Corbin Burnes Wednesday. Since the start of 2021, they're only hitting .195/.257/.318 against him. Lefties have actually put up almost identical numbers during that span, but the minatory bulk of him and the spin of his fastball have to make him a pitiably miserable at-bat for a righty.
Thus, Hyde ran out a lineup in which the only right-handed hitters (at least against a righty like Burnes) were Austin Hays and Jorge Mateo. Seven of every nine of his batters would have the platoon advantage on the crossdraw California cowboy. As it happened, Burnes was so efficient against Hays and Mateo that facing lefties made up even more of his start than that breakdown would imply.
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As anyone who tuned into that game knows, though, it didn't matter. Burnes struck out nine batters for the first time this year. He fired eight dominant innings, allowing just two hits and no runs. The lefties were helpless against him, as were Hays and Mateo, thanks to an extraordinarily sharp day for Burnes's cutter.
In one sense, that was just the natural response to the circumstances he faced. Burnes has made heavy use of the cutter against lefties all season. He was fractionally more reliant on that pitch against them than is his wont, but still mixed his changeup and curveball in with the offering against them,
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Because facing so many lefties got him so deep into his cutter, though, or because he had superb feel for the pitch, or just because he doesn't have as much faith in his other options at the moment, Burnes also leaned much more heavily on the cutter against Hays and Mateo than he usually does against right-handed batters.
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As Brewers fans know, the cutter is the key to everything for Burnes. It's far from being his only weapon, but it's the pitch at the heart of his repertoire, and it hasn't been itself this year. Opponents seem to be getting unusually good looks at it. His command of it is much less fine than it usually is. That he went to it so relentlessly and so successfully Wednesday, then, is encouraging.
It's just possible that, thanks to the Orioles' ability and eagerness to play matchups against him, Burnes is now back in the saddle. He overwhelmed and overcame a good offense almost solely on the strength of his cutter, and got to throw it more often in a single start than he might have done in a couple of them under normal circumstances.
Tuesday night's start in Minnesota will be a fascinating test. Will Burnes go back to that well as often against the Twins, or revert to trying to mix his pitches and changing speeds and eye levels on hitters who are geared up for the cutter? Was his success against Baltimore serendipity--the confluence of slightly better feel for a pitch on a given night with some friendly umpiring and accidentally accommodating matchups from the opponent--or the start of something more significant and sustainable?
We can't answer that question. Even Burnes can only make a more educated (but, perhaps, also more biased) guess. We don't know ourselves well enough to tell luck or random variation apart from concrete, lasting change, especially when the competing possibilities are complicated by interactions with forces beyond luck or internal control, like the opposing force of an opponent and their adjustments.
Plainly, though, Wednesday was a good development for Burnes. It represented a step on the journey back to the land of aces, and whether his next step is clearly in the same direction or not, he's closer to being the hurler the Brewers need him to be after having that outing.
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