Should the Brewers Spin the Block with Carlos Santana?

After hitting one of the coldest walk-off celebrations of the entire season, Carlos Santana was traded to the Brewers in exchange for shortstop prospect Jhonny Severino. Over his 226 plate appearances with the team, he slashed .249/.314/.459 for an OPS+ of 109. He was a huge offensive upgrade at first base. The team had tried trotting out all sorts of names, from Rowdy Tellez to Jon Singleton, but weren’t able to find stability until Santana’s arrival.

Despite his nickname of “Slamtana,” his 2023 Baseball Savant profile frames him as more of a disciplined player who avoided strikeouts and drew walks, rather than aimed for the moon with every swing. His walk rate (10.5%), chase rate (24%), and strikeout rate (16.8%) were all in the top quartile among qualified hitters. He also managed to accumulate 2 Outs Above Average (OAA) and 11 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS)--impressive defensive figures, especially given his age.  

He lacked the power of his younger days in Cleveland, but he was a welcome addition to a team whose production at first base totaled just a .681 OPS, 28th in MLB and besting only the Royals and the Padres. More importantly, his evenly-matched splits against all pitchers helped compensate for another weakness the team had, which was hitting against righties, against whom they posted a .695 OPS, 26th in MLB.

One of the main concerns with signing Santana is his age. He’ll be just a few days shy of 38 years old on Opening Day, and probably won’t be able to maintain above-average offensive production for very long, if at all. From 2010-2019, he averaged an impressive 121 OPS+ and received MVP votes in 2013 and 2019, while from 2020-2023, he averaged an OPS+ of just 94 across four different teams. His 2021 season with the Royals was particularly rough, as his .342 slugging percentage was the lowest for any season in his lengthy career. He managed to be on the wrong side of the Mendoza line with the Mariners in 2022. 

Nonetheless, the Brewers probably aren’t willing to take a risk on Rhys Hoskins returning to pre-injury form at an estimated cost of $36 million over two years, and there aren’t many younger, more capable free agents available. (Any Joey Gallo fans here?) Furthermore, unless the idea of Jake Bauers, Owen Miller, and Jahmai Jones tag-teaming first base outperforms all reasonable expectations, Santana could, at the very least, be a short-term holdover until more alluring names become available.

Within the farm system, Wes Clarke is slated to make his debut sometime in 2024 and had a great showing in Double A last year (and, most recently, in the Arizona Fall League). He could be a longer-term option, but without any experience at Triple A yet, it's hard to tell how his skills will match up against higher-quality opposition. The team’s other top prospects are primarily pitchers and shortstops, with Luke Adams as the only other first-base prospect ranked in the top 30. He’s a ways away from the show, with an ETA of 2026, and has yet to even reach High A.

Don’t expect him to fix all of the team’s problems and beat out the super-team Dodgers for the NL pennant in 2024, but a Santana signing could be a cheap and straightforward roster improvement heading into next year. 

Do you want to see a reunion between the Brewers and Santana? What price tag would make it unpalatable? Let's talk options.