Evaluating the Choice to Waive Brent Suter, Way Too Soon

15 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Less than a month into the season, the Brewers have suffered a couple of injuries to their pitching staff, and seem to have narrowly averted another with Corbin Burnes. Their depth is already being tested. With that in mind, it’s time to take a way-too-soon look at one of the early moves in the Brewers 2022-2023 offseason: the decision to place Brent Suter on waivers.

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Image courtesy of © Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

A 31st-Round Steal

Brent Suter was taken in the 31st round of the 2012 draft after a collegiate pitching career at Harvard. The lefty did not have the velocity or the stuff of the more highly-touted Jed Bradley, a first-round pick in 2011, but in 2015, he broke out, with a 2.36 ERA between Double A and Triple A. While Bradley was eventually traded and got a cup of coffee with the Braves, Suter came up in 2016, and became a solid bullpen asset.

Versatile Asset On The Pitching Staff

Suter then was a rotation asset for 2017 and 2018, until sidelined by Tommy John surgery. Upon his return, he primarily worked out of the bullpen, but took some starts in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, he filled out the back end of the bullpen, and his numbers slipped, with a 3.78 ERA as opposed to the 2.70 figure he posted from 2019-2021.

The Brewers had been looking to clear some salary obligations, given that Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff were due some big raises in arbitration. Suter’s $2.7 million looked like a good place to get some economic gains. So, with a potential $3 million salary for 2023, the Brewers placed Suter on waivers, where the Colorado Rockies claimed him.

The Brewers later purchased Bryse Wilson from the Pirates; Wilson is now filling the long-man role Suter held down for the Crew in 2022.

Results So Far

In his first month with the Rockies, Suter has posted a 1.38 ERA in eight appearances, with a 1.08 WHIP over 13 innings. To put it mildly, this is a superb performance, and in four of those appearances, Suter has gone two full innings. In another three, he got the Rockies four outs. He’s walked a few batters over his last couple of outings, but he’s avoided giving up the big hit when the team has needed him to clean up others’ messes or navigate a tricky part of the opposing lineup.

This ability would, quite frankly, have been a boon to a team that saw Woodruff and Freddy Peralta miss plenty of time.
In Wilson’s six appearances, he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and notched two three-inning saves, while costing $732,600. So, one can say that this deal hasn’t been bad for the Brewers…  so far.

That said, a hard look at some of the other members of the bullpen is warranted. Matt Bush has already given up two homers and five walks in eight appearances in 2023. By comparison, he gave up eight walks and six homers in 25 appearances in 2022, following his acquisition for Antoine Kelly and Mark Mathias.

The latter performed well for Texas, but is struggling with the Pirates, while Kelly looks like he is finding a groove as a potential closer following some injury struggles in 2021 with the Brewers. Javy Guerra has been so-so with the Brewers, and the cost for him turned out to be starting pitching prospect Victor Castaneda, who seemed slated for Triple A this year.

The Way-Too-Early Evaluation

Given the 2022 injuries to Woodruff and Peralta, and the current injuries in the rotation, the decision to place Suter on waivers looks bad. Had the Crew kept Suter (perhaps jettisoning Bush instead), the team might be better positioned to weather this period of being short-handed on the mound. More spot starters and long relievers seem to be their biggest need at the moment. 

 

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I just wasted three minutes reading this nonsense article 

I think we all knew who wrote this as soon as we saw it was a Brent Suter article. Taken seriously, like others have said Suter would not have been in high leverage situations. He very well may have been in the Guerra spot after the game is basically over. If we were to look at a Brewers reliever from last year that might have been higher leverage that player may be Trevor Gott. He pitched in the 7th/8th a lot prior to Bush arriving. It sure looks like they should have kept Gott instead of Bush.