Even Though You're Mad, the Brewers Are in Great Shape

It's hard to maintain perspective, right now. By losing series to the Red Sox, Tigers, Rockies, and Giants in the last two and a half weeks, the Brewers have missed some invaluable opportunities to pile up wins and widen their margin for error. They're still above .500, at 19-15, but that means that they've lost 10 of 15 after their blazing start. The starting rotation, which seemed like the heartbeat of the team coming into the season, suddenly feels a bit suspect, with one ace down and another mysteriously scuffling.

Yet, when we widen the lens and look at the big picture, things still look rosy. As the Brewers have tried not to spiral over the last week, their division rivals have all gone through the same miniature crisis. The only team who was projected to be a credible threat to Milwaukee before the season--the Cardinals--is an unmitigated disaster, now sitting at 11-24 and stultified by controversy and confusion. The upstarts who could push the Crew--the Cubs and Pirates--have each had a rough week and a half. As a result, according to FanGraphs, the Brewers still have a 56.5-percent chance to win the NL Central.

Even that might undersell the strength of their position. The projected standings show them with 5.5 more wins at season's end than the closest contender, the Cubs. Some of the chances that they don't win it, according to these data, are just the residual faith projection systems have in the Cardinals, and in reality, the Cardinals are a disaster with no hope of turning things around this year.

Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA system was always higher on the Brewers, anyway, and they now have Milwaukee at 75.4 percent to win the division, with nine more projected wins than the Cubs. In that model, the Cardinals are trending more quickly toward being a non-factor. 

Obviously, you're not obligated to believe these numbers. While the Cardinals' correct playoff odds at this point are zero, which no statistical system will understand or capture this early, and while the Pirates' brief flirtation with relevance seems to be fizzling, the Cubs could stay feisty. You're well within your rights to believe that the injuries and situational deficiencies bedeviling the Brewers will continue to prevent them from running away with the Central. This last stretch was a very real chance to scoop up easy wins, and the team missed it. Over the next two and a half weeks, they have to face the Dodgers, Rays, and Astros, and there's a series in St. Louis in there in which Milwaukee needs to ensure that the dead stay dead.

Still, objectively, the Brewers are in great shape. They have the best defense in baseball, which is allowing them to scrape by without the production they expect from guys like Willy Adames and Jesse Winker. They haven't used Devin Williams especially often or aggressively in the early going, which should mean that he'll be fresh and dominant throughout the summer. William Contreras was the centerpiece of their offseason and the focal point of their spring, and he's delivering on that investment and that promise. Meanwhile, the team most equipped to beat the best version of the Brewers is imploding.

Every day the Brewers stay afloat is another day closer to the potential returns of Brandon Woodruff and Luis Urias. It's also another day for the Pirates' ship to continue its slow sinking, and another day closer to the trade deadline, where the team could reinforce its pitching staff or its outfield, depending on which unit seems to need that help by then. There's no immediate or especially powerful threat to the Brewers' push toward a division title. They only need to avoid becoming a threat to themselves.