Exploring Milwaukee Brewers' Weaknesses Ahead of MLB Trade Deadline: First Base

Heading into June, the Brewers had a great duo at first base. Rhys Hoskins was seemingly back to his old self, holding an .849 OPS on the first day of the month, while Jake Bauers had an OPS of .814 as an understudy. However, despite Milwaukee having an outstanding month of June as a team, their sluggers at first base weren’t necessarily included in the festivities. Hoskins and Bauers had OPS figures of .538 and .532, respectively, a sobering fact that would only become apparent if one had deliberately taken a peek under the hood.

The Brewers have struggled to get the most out of Hoskins since they signed him as a free agent heading into 2024, and while he is better this year, he’s just one more less-than-ideal month from regressing to replacement-level territory. His profile is somewhat confusing to interpret, as he has one of the lowest chase rates of qualified hitters (19.0%) but his whiff rate (27.4%) is comfortably worse than average. Generally, this means that he is primarily getting beaten in the strike zone, which isn’t a good sign for someone who’s expected to be a power hitter.

His struggles against breaking balls (.247 SLG) and offspeed (.250 SLG) only make his numbers even more lopsided, and opposing pitchers have apparently picked up on this, attacking him more aggressively with non-fastballs. In the month of June, he swung and missed a total of 44 times. Fourteen of these whiffs were against some sort of fastball variant (four-seamer, sinker, cutter), whereas 17 of them were against sliders, alone. 

In a perfect world, Bauers would be the yin to Hoskins’ yang, but in reality, they are actually remarkably similar. Neither hitter chases pitches outside of the zone, but both still have high whiff and strikeout rates. Bauers is great against sinkers and cutters, but has been getting dominated by the four-seam fastball—a fatal flaw in the big leagues. This doesn't even give Pat Murphy the luxury of plugging and playing an option depending on the situation, since they share too many weaknesses.

The fact that Bauers would even be discussed as a candidate for more serious playing time speaks to the issue at hand. I am as much of a Jake Bauers truther as anyone you’ll ever meet, but if a career backup player with an 86 wRC+ over nearly 2,000 big-league plate appearances is someone who might be asked to step up into a key role for a postseason team, the results are likely going to be subpar. 

Internally, the minor-league options at first base aren’t much better. Ernesto Martinez Jr. has the most innings at first base with the Sounds and has been perfectly okay at the plate this year, posting a 108 wRC+. Andrew Vaughn was so bad he was unplayable even for the White Sox but has put up a respectable 144 wRC+ since joining the Sounds (albeit over a span of just 44 plate appearances). Tyler Black has barely played a month's worth of games and has plenty of work to do before he’s ready to return to the big leagues, currently sitting at a 15 wRC+ at Triple-A. At this point, the best option on paper might unironically be Bobby Dalbec who has a 144 wRC+ in the minors this year while dipping his toes in the first base waters. And before anyone laments the departure of Wes Clarke in exchange for a few simoleons, the Astros have kept him at Double-A for the time being, signaling a lack of confidence in his preparedness for the majors.

If the Brewers want to retain their current Wild Card spot and get past the first round of the postseason for the first time since 2018, they’ll probably need more than what they currently have. It’s theoretically possible for Bauers and Hoskins to tinker with their approaches and get back to being viable options in the lineup, but neither has done so in the recent past. With less than a month to go before the deadline and a narrow lead in the standings, Milwaukee’s front office is left in an unenviable position at first base.