Brewers Video
There's a lot happening in the market for elite relief pitchers right now. According to some reports, the Cardinals—expected, previously, to trade Ryan Helsley—might be more inclined to hold onto their All-Star closer. The Mets snapped up one of the top relievers on the free-agent market over the weekend, in ex-Yankees righty Clay Holmes—but they intend to convert him to a starting pitcher. That continues a pattern, of late, and one that might well extend even further when fellow free agent Jeff Hoffman finds a home later this winter.
For those reasons, don't expect the Brewers to trade Devin Williams this week. They're still very likely to trade him, just as they traded Corbin Burnes in the endgame of the offseason before this past campaign—but just as they benefited by waiting out the market until they got the offer they wanted for Burnes, they might believe they can do the same by waiting out suitors on Williams. Every converted reliever who moves to the rotation (be it a free agent, or an ace reliever staying put, like the Twins' Griffin Jax) creates ripple effects throughout the league. If the Cardinals are planning not to deal Helsley, that creates ripples, too. When other top relievers on the market who are not candidates to switch to starting (like Tanner Scott and Carlos Estévez) sign, they'll leave the teams who miss out on them increasingly hungry.
Scarcity looks poised to prevail in the market for relievers, and the Brewers have the patience to foresee that and capitalize on it—even if that comes with some risk. If they end up trading Williams a month or more from now, they might have limited options when they turn around to spend some of the money they save in the transaction. Still, they know that eventually, the right deal will materialize. Moreover, we could see Matt Arnold spend the money he knows he'll eventually save by trading Williams even before he does so. Last winter, he signed Rhys Hoskins before trading Burnes.
Ordinarily, teams are wary of doing things in that order, knowing that teams with whom they're negotiating on trades would try to use their budget as a cudgel against them if they were financially overextended. One reason why the Brewers are so careful not to commit themselves publicly to a payroll figure, or even a range, is so that they can avoid being thus pinned down. Does that mean they can really afford to both keep Williams and make any significant addition via free agency? Probably not. But they retain plausible deniability if a team does try to hold their feet to the fire that way.
Thus, it's probably not the time for a Williams trade. That doesn't mean the Brewers won't be active at the Winter Meetings; they might well pull the trigger on an unrelated deal. As uncomfortable as it might be for fans, though, the team knows that even if they have to wait until late in the game to make their big offseason plays, they can execute them better than almost any other front office in the league. Like the man they'll eventually deal for multiple long-term pieces, they're superb closers.
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