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    Isaac Collins Has Been Wonderfully Fine, for a Brewers Team in Need

    Every year, the Brewers have an emergent need for a steady role player on the positional side. They don't spend much money each winter, so they can't cover the whole season without reinforcements. Fortunately, for the umpteenth year running, they've found just such a player.

    Matthew Trueblood
    Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

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    Isaac Collins was just a waiver pickup in December 2022. He didn't play any role for the parent club in 2023, and he couldn't have been any less important to the 2024 team—even if he'd once again spent the whole year in the minors. That was because those teams were lucky and privileged, though. They had not only, in turns, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick, Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio, but organizational soldier Tyrone Taylor—and then, first alongside Taylor and then filling his shoes after he was dealt to New York, minor-league signing Blake Perkins.

    Frelick and Chourio are very much part of the mix, but Wiemer is long gone. So is Taylor. Yelich has often been confined to DH duty, and Mitchell and Perkins are on the injured list. No matter. This is the moment the team knew would come, someday, when they acquired Collins. He's stepped forward nicely, the latest in a long chain of minor moves paying major dividends when the cash-strapped Crew needs it.

    Collins is batting .234/.345/.339 in 146 plate appearances. He's started six of the Brewers' last 10 games, and is a semi-regular in left field. Despite underwhelming power and a 24.7% strikeout rate, Collins has a 99 wRC+, fueled by great plate discipline. He's also added 2 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in left field. The speedy 27-year-old switch-hitter is reasonably platoon-proof (although his production takes very different shapes based on which side he's batting from), and he adds value on the basepaths. He is, in short, a good player, created virtually out of nowhere.

    By no means is Collins a star, and by no means can he ever become one. He raked in the minors, but his big-league ceiling looks about like what he's doing right now. He's added some bat speed from the right side this year (74.2 miles per hour, up from 72.9 in a tiny sample last season), but his power upside is not great. He swings and misses too much within the zone to run a better-than-average strikeout rate, so his offensive contributions come down to how well he can avoid chasing outside the zone. He's done that marvelously in this first real taste of the majors, though, which has allowed him to run a .340 OBP from the left side. When batting righty, he has just enough pop to make his profile work without elite swing decisions, and indeed, he also makes more contact from that side.

    A converted second baseman, Collins is a good athlete, and it's shined through in his move to left field. Collins isn't going to be the best defensive outfielder in the game, but he's clearly above average, and will remain so for the next few years. His overall skill set is good enough to make him slightly better than an average player, and while part of that is because he's been deployed tactically and selectively, it's also because he's a versatile, high-floor athlete.

    It's unlikely that Collins will ever be more than a fringe regular, and if the Brewers have their way, he'll only be a backup even by the end of this year. Yet again, though, they've proved their ability to target, acquire and develop young players with strong big-league credentials, even absent star-caliber upside. In Perkins, Taylor, Luis Urías, Mike Brosseau, Andruw Monasterio, Jace Peterson, and others, the Brewers have repeatedly found winning players at bargain prices, or in unlikely places. Whether that will be enough to secure their eighth straight winning season (in full campaigns) or their third consecutive playoff berth is yet to be seen, but what they're getting out of Collins can already be called a victory.

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    Guys like Collins are kind of a dime for a dozen. Not meant as an insult. He’s a valuable role player, and I like him. I just don’t think the Brewers did anything particularly unique in developing him that every other organization doesn’t do with their bench players. 

    • Disagree 1
    10 hours ago, Turning2 said:

    Guys like Collins and kind of a dime for a dozen. Not meant as an insult. He’s a valuable role player, and I like him. I just don’t think the Brewers did anything particularly unique in developing him that every other organization doesn’t do with their bench players. 

    It was the Rockies, so they might fall outside of the purview of "every other organization", but the main thing the Brewers did with Isaac was just identify him as an MLB calibre player and acquire him for nothing.

    Every team needs four outfielders minimum, so far this year there are 118 players with at least 80 PA in the outfield. Collins is tied between 39th and 44th with 1.0 WAR.

    From 2023-24 there were 110 players with at least 400 PA in the outfield, Blake Perkins 2.3 WAR tied him for 68th to 70th on that list.

    Of course the template was Tyrone Taylor, one of the few Melvin regime holdovers that made it through to the Stearns & Arnold years. From 2021-23 there were 109 players with at least 600 PA in the outfield with Tyrone notching 3.7 WAR, good for 57th.

    That's three different "fourth outfielders" the Brewers have gotten starter level production out of now, a big reason why their 37.2 WAR is 6th among all outfield units since 2021.

    They've done the same thing at catcher with their 33.7 WAR since 2018 topping all of MLB. Of course getting three All Star level seasons from Contreras and Grandal helped in there, but no one expected Manny Pina to chip in 5.5 WAR when he was picked up for an aging out of the league K-Rod.

    Omar Narvaez (5.1 WAR) was already an MLB player, but was acquired for nothing and the template for how the Brewers can help transform catcher's defensive chops. Victor Caratini had 1.3 WAR in 1,033 PA before joining the Brewers, then wracked 2.6 WAR in only 540 PA with Milwaukee.

    Infield hasn't been nearly as good with Jace Peterson (3.0 WAR over 630 PA from 2021-22) the only real backup we got starter level production out of, but they appear to be one of the better MLB organizations of late when it comes to maximizing bench production from catcher and outfield.

    • Like 3

    Isaac Collins' reward for holding down the fort amid a short-handed outfield arrives this weekend when he gets to play in front of family and friends at Target Field. He is a product of Maple Grove High School, the jock school that produced Wisconsin basketball star Brad Davison. 

    • Collins earned a combined nine letters while playing for the Crimson in baseball (five), football (three) and basketball (one).
    • He was the first player since current Minnesota Twin Joe Mauer (2001) to be named a finalist for the Mr. Minnesota Award in both baseball and football.
    • Isaac hit .480 during his senior season, with 39 hits over 27 contests. He set the Maple Grove HS record for hits in a single game with six and also holds the record for triples in a season with five.
    • An All-State selection as a senior, Isaac was a four-time All-Midwest Suburban Conference pick.
    • Collins was the MVP of the Lion’s All-Star Game shortly before enrolling at Creighton University.
     
     

     

     

     

    • Like 2
    4 hours ago, sveumrules said:

    It was the Rockies, so they might fall outside of the purview of "every other organization", but the main thing the Brewers did with Isaac was just identify him as an MLB calibre player and acquire him for nothing.

    Every team needs four outfielders minimum, so far this year there are 118 players with at least 80 PA in the outfield. Collins is tied between 39th and 44th with 1.0 WAR.

    From 2023-24 there were 110 players with at least 400 PA in the outfield, Blake Perkins 2.3 WAR tied him for 68th to 70th on that list.

    Of course the template was Tyrone Taylor, one of the few Melvin regime holdovers that made it through to the Stearns & Arnold years. From 2021-23 there were 109 players with at least 600 PA in the outfield with Tyrone notching 3.7 WAR, good for 57th.

    That's three different "fourth outfielders" the Brewers have gotten starter level production out of now, a big reason why their 37.2 WAR is 6th among all outfield units since 2021.

    They've done the same thing at catcher with their 33.7 WAR since 2018 topping all of MLB. Of course getting three All Star level seasons from Contreras and Grandal helped in there, but no one expected Manny Pina to chip in 5.5 WAR when he was picked up for an aging out of the league K-Rod.

    Omar Narvaez (5.1 WAR) was already an MLB player, but was acquired for nothing and the template for how the Brewers can help transform catcher's defensive chops. Victor Caratini had 1.3 WAR in 1,033 PA before joining the Brewers, then wracked 2.6 WAR in only 540 PA with Milwaukee.

    Infield hasn't been nearly as good with Jace Peterson (3.0 WAR over 630 PA from 2021-22) the only real backup we got starter level production out of, but they appear to be one of the better MLB organizations of late when it comes to maximizing bench production from catcher and outfield.

    I'm not a WAR guy. Not a proponent of most, if not all, of the 21 century/Moneyball invented metrics. Far too subjective of a valuation. Any Win Above Replacement would have to factor in the performance of all the other players in the books in those games, and how they performed. It can't just be W vrs L relative to Player A vrs Player(s) B,C which is how I understand it to be. 

    Teams do have to identify guys who can at least produce to a minimum standard at the MLB level, and every team does to varying degrees of success. Perhaps the Brewers are a little better at it than others. But at the end of the day, none of those minimum standards meeting, role / utility / platoon level players are difference makers that decide the team's seasonal fate. Collins, like so many others, is a filler track buried on the 2nd side of an LP from 1975. Solid, complimentary, supplementary, valuable....but not the defining part of the whole. 

    You have to have those guys on your team, but they can't be roughly 1/3 of your everyday lineup which is the case for MIL at the moment. 

     

    • Disagree 1
    19 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

    Just a correction, Collins was a minor league Rule 5 draft pick not a waiver pick up.

    Gah. Not the first time this has gotten me! Maddeningly, Baseball Reference lists MiLB Rule 5 pickups as waiver claims. I get why. Functionally, they're the same thing. Still, it's frustrating.

    At this point Isaac Collins has been more than wonderfully fine…he might just win NL ROY

    He’s currently sporting a 128 wRC+ and 2.3 fWAR. His chief competition should be Drake Baldwin (130 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR), although Misiorowski will have something to say about that

    Just a fantastic player this season 



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