Joe Ross's Uneven Return Resurrects Questions About His Best Role With Brewers

Joe Ross’s first big-league start since late May was a tale of two outings. The righthander’s first voyage through the Braves lineup was successful. He retired the first eight men he faced, notched a pair of strikeouts, and held hitters to an average exit velocity of 85.3 mph.

Things flipped in the third inning, once leadoff hitter Jarred Kelenic stepped into the box against Ross a second time. Each of the next five batted balls was hard-hit, and four went for hits. Atlanta tallied four runs against Ross in the inning, and Kelenic would add a fifth on a solo homer in the fourth.

That abrupt turn for the worse continued a trend from Ross’s first nine starts, before he hit the injured list with a lower back injury. He’s held opponents to a modest .694 OPS when facing them for the first time in a game this year. That figure jumps to .794 the second time, and .950 the third.

Ross’s greatest roadblock in effectively navigating a lineup multiple times over is his limited arsenal, which was a concern heading into the regular season. He has thrown five different pitch types this year, but his two-seamer and slider are his most developed offerings and account for over 70% of his pitches thrown. His changeup has taken some steps forward, but his four-seamer has a poor shape (13.3 inches of induced vertical break, 6.1 inches of horizontal run), and he’s only thrown his curveball 19 total times.

The lack of options rears its head in multiple ways. It means hitters have fewer threats to keep track of and adjust to when seeing Ross, but it also leaves him with little room to adjust on the mound. He lacks the adaptability of someone like Colin Rea, who can tweak the usage of his seven-pitch mix from one outing to the next based on the matchup; his feel for certain pitches on a given day; and the swings he sees the first time through the order. If Ross is missing his best two-seamer or slider, things can fall apart quickly.

Exacerbating the issue is that Ross loses his best stuff quickly, after (typically) starting strong. It’s not uncommon for a starter to lose some velocity as his pitch count increases, but it affects Ross especially early. His fastballs average north of 95 mph on average in the first inning, often touching 96 and 97, but dip a tick by the second. From there, it’s a steady decline as the outing progresses.

It was a similar story against the Braves. Ross averaged 95.6 mph with his fastballs in his first inning of work. When they saw him a second time, he was down to 94.5. That slight loss of velocity can make a world of difference for a pitcher with unremarkable fastball shapes and few offspeed choices.

These ingredients make for a pitcher who is at a disadvantage when asked to face an order multiple times in a game and provide length. That’s how it’s played out so far for Ross. The takeaway here is not that Ross lacks the ability to be an effective big-league pitcher but that he is miscast in his current role.

Ross’s sinker-slider combo has looked strong in the first innings of his outings and could be effective in shorter stints. Slotting him into a bullpen role and tasking him with focusing on his two best weapons for 20-to-40 pitches at a time could be the best way to maximize his stuff. It could help him sit in that 95-97 range more consistently and lessen the need to use his shakier pitches.

Pat Murphy would not offer specifics after Ross’s start on how he’ll organize his pitching staff going forward, but with Frankie Montas joining the rotation, the best course may be to slot Ross into the multi-inning bullpen role that Jakob Junis filled upon his return from the injured list. His stuff could play well in that capacity and boost a relief corps that has shown some cracks in recent weeks. Going all the way back to spring training, the Brewers have viewed Ross exclusively as a starter. It might be that sticking to that was part of the conversations that led to him signing with the team, or that they worry he would not be able to stay healthy or effective without the predictability of a five-day schedule. but in either case, it's time to revisit the discussion.